OHweather

The lake effect Friday night through Saturday night is intriguing, though wind direction may not be great for some of you. With the synoptic precip Friday morning temp profiles are close to supporting snow...there will be some dynamic cooling as lift is pretty good and the precip will be moderate, so the higher terrain in NE OH and NW PA will probably try to flip to snow for an hour or two...it may be enough to try to start lightly coating grassy surfaces and such...lakeshore probably just sees rain. NW OH a bit colder and better timing so will probably be some grassy accums there to start Friday. For the lake effect over the weekend, it's honestly more impressive than I initially thought parameter wise, but some questions about the duration and wind direction make it hard to be confident about a lot of snow falling in any given spot. My impression based on the parameters alone is that someone will hit the 6"/12 hour or 8"/24 hour warning criteria, but a band will need to lock in somewhere for that to happen. The band will start taking shape late Friday evening as winds line up out of the WSW. With an approaching upper-low and extreme instability developing, it will likely be intense...it may graze the Lake, Ashtabula, and Erie lakeshore for a time, but at some point between 1 AM and 5 AM Saturday will lift out over the lake and come inland south of BUF as winds go more SW. The band will likely be mixed before midnight, but after midnight as 850mb temps crash to -10 to -12C by daybreak the band will be all snow/graupel down to the shoreline given its likely intensity. Winds lock in for a few hours Saturday morning, which could allow the band to slow enough to drop substantial amounts on parts of SW NY along the lakeshore and inland into the southern Buffalo suburbs. Instability will be extreme, with equilibrium heights of near 20k feet thanks to hilarious lake-to-500mb differentials of -45C (approaching -48C briefly). Wind speeds will be strong, but when the band is completely parallel to the long axis of the lake that should allow it to be organized enough. Given the instability, large-scale lift with the upper-low, full-lake fetch and strong convergence the band into SW NY will have a lot of lightning and likely contain very high rates...despite the wet snow, over 2" per hour will be possible. Even though the duration is only a few hours, the possibility exists for up to a foot in SW NY if the band locks in Saturday morning. This could graze northeastern Erie County but I suspect if it locks in it does so just up the shore from Erie proper...though they could get grazed for a time late Friday night/early Saturday and see some snow. The band will swing into most of the primary NW PA and NE OH Snowbelt Saturday afternoon as a surface trough pushes through and brings the winds around to the WNW over the lake. It probably won't sit over the lakeshore for more than an hour or two as the wind shift is fairly sharp and abrupt, but given the likely instability and forcing it could drop a quick inch or two of snow/graupel near the shore. As for how far south the band can push and what kind of amounts it can drop inland, winds on land don’t really back from WSW as the surface high starts building in quickly Saturday evening. With WNW winds over the lake the band can probably get down to about Downtown and then push east across NE Cuyahoga and into northern Geauga, north of 322. It should get into central and southern Ashtabula as well as most of Erie County, but likely struggles to push into Crawford PA. It may maintain this southern extent for a few hours before drifting back north Saturday evening. The upper support quickly departs late Saturday afternoon and the inversion height lowers substantially, so the band intensity will likely be more moderate when it reaches its southernmost point…it could drop a light/slushy accum on the Cuyahoga lakeshore from Downtown points NE and perhaps a quick 1-3” inland in a few hours. Overnight Saturday night instability does remain sufficient as the ridge builds in and slowly backs winds over land and pushes the lake effect back up the shoreline. With lightening wind speeds and lake to 850mb diffs remaining easily over 20C through the night, it wouldn’t surprise me if a moderate band or two does reorganize from parts of Lake County and perhaps the chimney of Geauga northeast across northern/central Ashtabula County and northern/central Erie County PA, perhaps into Chautauqua County NY as well later in the night. This band won’t be as intense, but will have light winds and good convergence so should be organized and likely won’t move quickly, so it could drop another 2-6” overnight Saturday night into early Sunday where it sets up. Overall the potential for heaviest snow will be Saturday morning in SW NY and perhaps extreme NE Erie County, and I’m thinking a quick 6-12” with that where the band sets up…shouldn’t have issues accumulating along the lake given temps aloft and the expected intensity. Expecting a quick 1-4” across the primary Snowbelt as the band swings south Saturday afternoon/early evening before lifting back north…in Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties this is likely confined to along/north of 322 as it looks now. I expect another few inches in the northern Snowbelt overnight Saturday night into early Sunday as bands re-organize and slowly drift north as the surface ridge builds in and as enough instability hangs on. Forgive the crude map, I never had a chance to make a nicer base that included NW PA and up to Buffalo last winter and don't right now either. I will likely adjust this Friday at some point since I'm off and we're getting another monsoonal here tomorrow afternoon/evening, to nail down the SW NY band better and take another look at the Saturday night amounts/placement.

My early impression is that this weekend won't do much...the cold shot is brief and winds quickly go back to the SW. It'll be so cold that if a brief period of LES developed it'd accumulate inland, but I don't think there's much potential for a decent amount. Next week's cold shot at this point looks much deeper/slower moving and could feature a west to northwest wind. The lake to air temp differential should be extreme given lake waters still in the 50s and persistent signals for impressive to near record cold with this airmass, so details certainly to be worked out but that could lead to a significant event somewhere between Monday and Wednesday of next week.

I'm not really a big fan of accumulations Saturday night into Sunday in NE OH right now...850mb temps are close to supportive and we've had accumulating snow with similar 925mb and 850mb temps before in October, but the lake is unusually warm and it will be a short-fetch event by the time temps get cold enough to start mixing with snow, which will limit band intensity and blow lake-modified air well inland. It should still be an interesting time Saturday afternoon and evening as explosive instability develops over the lake thanks to 500mb temps of -30 to -32C moving over 16 to 18C waters...there will be a very strong vort and surface trough moving by Saturday late afternoon/early evening with that extremely instability in place with winds shifting from WSW to NNW...there will likely be an organized shore-parallel band that develops and quickly swings south through much of the Snowbelt and the Cleveland area. Surface temps will be in the low 50s when that happens so the p-type will be "rain," but with unusually strong instability over the lake and low freezing levels there will likely be an abundance of small hail/graupel with that activity. Any stronger cells could probably get close to producing severe criteria hail near the lakeshore given over 1500 J/KG of lake-induced CAPE with a conservative water temp in BUFKIT. Also could be stronger than normal waterspouts over the lake along the surface trough. As exciting as that is it isn't really snow...the inversion height gradually lowers Saturday evening as we lose the synoptic support with winds becoming well-aligned out of the NNW. Many areas will turn dry but two or three bands will likely occur downwind of the lake between Sandusky and SW NY. It will probably take until at least midnight for the bands to change to all snow even inland...they'll still be fairly intense for a few hours at that point and could be moderate until early Sunday, but again they're multi-bands and likely won't firehose anyone spot and surface temps will be marginal. If any stronger band impacts the higher terrain just right a localized light accumulation could occur, but I think that'll be the exception. Still, fairly fun for the middle of October.

Yeah -6 to -8C would do the trick with an organized band...some runs have shown that, some haven’t, but can’t totally rule it out. As is usually the case with any early events instability won’t be in short supply.

I won’t be in Ohio often, but will be next weekend...in Athens Friday/Saturday and in NE Ohio on Sunday. The models have been consistently showing a strong enough cold shot to get some lake effect/instability showers mixed with graupel or wet snow on Sunday...a little ways out from locking it in but the potential for some non-accumulating wintry precip on Sunday seems legitimate and I am rooting it on, since it may be a little longer before I see it out here.

20% POPs were ok the last two days IMO...mayybe could've gone 30 or 40% in the Snowbelt where the combination of the lake breeze and terrain can help spark a few more storms, but the areal coverage everywhere except for the Snowbelt was very low. Today's cell ended up being relatively impressive and was slow moving over the eastern suburbs into Geauga, though it really was just the one big cell in that area. Flood advisories and warnings are tough...it is pretty pointless when they throw them up as the rain is ending which happens more than it should, but you also don't want to issue them and have nothing happen. Some minor poor-drainage flooding is not worthy of an advisory, but if you have enough that you have 6" or 12" of standing water on more than a couple of roads it needs something. Not sure how bad today's was in your area. When I'm contacting our clients for flood-related concerns it's really a fine balancing act between getting ahold of them after flooding is already ongoing and doing it too early when there's a high bust potential...unless it's nearly a slam dunk (solid area of slow-moving very heavy rain moving over a sensitive area) they're going to get some rain before they get contacted, although I try my hardest to do it somewhat before they hit whatever threshold I determine that I think they'll start flooding at. The NWS is issuing for a totally different audience but does ultimately have similar concerns when issuing products like that. 1.13" isn't a minor amount, but unless the ground is already saturated with streams and creeks near bankful it is hard to get substantial flooding with that amount in an area like Chagrin that's not extremely urban.

Thanks! The downside to this field definitely is way more grads than jobs and a fairly high likelihood of having to move off the bat. Ohio is not rich in met jobs...two NWS offices that you likely won’t get into without a masters or years of experience, and AEP which is almost the same thing. I don’t count broadcast jobs because that’s a whole other beast that I had no interest in touching. I’ll certainly try to peak in this winter. I won’t work 168 hours a week, hopefully.

Wonder if that was the waterspout reported off of Willowick around noon that day...always a fun METAR. Anyways, it just dawned on me with the lake effect showers and waterspouts this week that as we approach September, lake effect season is just about upon us (of course, it'll be rain for the next several weeks if there is any). With moving to Jersey and starting the job in July this summer has flown by for me. Luckily most of the East Coast doesn't really get wintry threats quite as early as the Great Lakes can.

Thanks guys! I’m sure I’ll still check in on occasion. I’ll miss the lake effect.

Thanks. It is bitter sweet for sure, for a number of reasons. I’m happy to get a job in the field, this one seems like a good fit for me, I’m not a big fan of moving away but ultimately I have more reasons to take the job than not...a lack of met jobs that you can get into right out of college around here is a big reason. Either way, I’m sure I’ll still drop in at times as time permits me to.

Just tallied up my spread sheets...a total of 93.5” here this winter here. Certainly not bad, a little above average. Would give this winter a B here, but can see how grades range from A to D across northern OH and NW PA dependent on your exact location. After last winter’s crap fest and spending the previous 4 in SE OH, it was nice. And, this will be my last winter in NE OH, for a while at least. Will be moving to New Jersey for a meteorology job in July. It will be a reduction in annual snow, but it is in an area that can see big snows from those Nor’Easters and is in the somewhat snowier NW corner of the state which averages an ok amount. Plus, they have clients in the OV/GL (including Cleveland) so I’m sure I’ll check in and live vicariously at times.

Ugh. Yeah. That’s not good.

I’m hoping ERI doesn’t get enough snow tonight to hit 200” on the season. I do believe they’ve gotten 170-180” which is still very impressive, but given obvious measuring issues at times this winter with bad over measures I hope they don’t get the distinction of being the only large city to get a 200” winter.

Let's see how this does. Actually a pretty good W to WSW flow setup later tonight into Tuesday morning with a deep layer of steep lapse rates, synoptic moisture and moisture from Lake Michigan, and a decent shot of synoptic lift from a shortwave moving by Tuesday morning. I think there's a pretty intense W-E band for a time tomorrow morning with 1-2" per hour rates in the northern Snowbelt. Assuming it hits the higher terrain for any length of time, several inches should be doable with temps below freezing.

Hate to say it, but I think there could be a few inches of snow in parts of the snowbelt Monday night into Tuesday morning. Enough instability for lake enhancement, with a potent vort max dropping across the lake bringing a nice shot of synoptic moisture and lift. Winds swing from WSW to WNW as it goes by. Think there's a general area of snow showers that moves through giving much of north-central and NE OH a dusting, with a band of more robust LES that starts off near the shore and swings inland across all of the snowbelt and probably the Cleveland area early Tuesday that could drop a few inches on the northern Snowbelt and maybe a couple of inches on the Cleveland metro.

1.3” here. Wasn’t paying much attention and a bit of a surprise. CLE even reported 1”/hr rates in one of their hourly obs.

Measured 4.9” here about 40 minutes ago. Nice surprise. It’s been snowing since so I’m sure I’m at or a bit over 5”

Those are some insane pics! Congrats on getting the property...definitely one of the better spots downwind of Lake Erie for snow. There will be a little more LES this afternoon through early Friday...not much, but if there's an upstream lake connection there could be a few inches, most likely downwind of Lake Huron into NW PA. Maybe a synoptic snow threat around the middle of next week.

Had a hard time getting a good measurement on the new snow since it started melting in the warmer/thinner spots as it was still falling, but will estimate around half an inch for an event total of 4.6”. If it was January I probably would’ve gotten a good 1-2” during the day today.

Measured 1.4” new as of 9am for an event total of 4.1”. It’s been snowing decently since, at times moderate and blowing some.

Only 0.6” since my last measurement for 1.7” so far. In the few areas that were bare that new snow has actually melted. About 4” on the ground on average. Nice squalls lined up into MI sliding across the lake over the next few hours so we will see how it goes.

1.1" here overnight. Just had another squall drop a quick quarter inch. The squall potential across much of the state looks good this afternoon and evening. A few strikes out lightning could even occur.

Complicated setup over the next couple of days, but there will be rounds of snow with accumulations likely. A shortwave/weak surface low going by this afternoon is causing some flurries and light snow with no real accumulations with temps above freezing. Tonight this wave and lift pull off to the east, but a relatively unstable airmass currently over lower MI/IN/NW OH will drift east across the lake tonight. Though the snow showers over lower MI are largely diurnally driven, the steep low-level lapse rates and good moisture will slide east. Mixing over the low to mid 30s water of Lake Erie should cause this airmass to produce light to briefly moderate lake effect snow showers this evening into tonight across parts of NE OH and NW PA as the corridor of moist/unstable low-level air slides east. The RAP forecast soundings have good moisture/lapse rates up to 7-8k feet at CLE as this airmass moves overhead this evening with NW winds. The NAM soundings are drier/more stable, but have generally found that an airmass that produces widespread diurnal snow showers overland will produce some lake response as the diurnal snow showers over land decrease. With a NW flow expect the higher terrain from the secondary Snowbelt south of CLE east across the primary NE OH Snowbelt and interior NW PA to have the best shot at some accumulations tonight. Duration of favorable conditions is only a few hours in any given area and organization doesn’t look great, but the layer of instability appears deep enough for moderate bursts. Tend to think a dusting to up to an inch or inch and a half is likely tonight downwind of the lake, with the best shot at around an inch or so in the higher terrain. Perhaps a brief lull late tonight before the next potent shortwave/vort max passes late Tuesday morning. The strongest lift from this vort max may track a little southwest of the Cleveland area and NE OH, however, some increased lift along with a lobe of upstream moisture and the layer of instability deepening to over 10k feet should allow for a decent period of snow showers Tuesday morning with this feature. Some models take the upstream moisture towards the central highlands in this period, but with a NW or NNW flow I don’t buy the Lake Huron moisture moving that far southwest. Think it will affect the Cleveland area and perhaps secondary Snowbelt, and the rest of NE OH. The best snow in this period may miss NW PA to the west, but some increase is possible in this area. Some bursts could put down a quick inch or two of snow Tuesday morning downwind of Lake Erie in NE OH as the vort max goes by, however, again a lack of organization and fairly short duration, along with known difficulties accumulating during the day this late on the year, hard to get excited about much more. Outside of the Snowbelt, expect to see diurnal snow showers that are briefly heavy pop up. Best shot at some light accumulations outside of the lake effect may be in the central highlands where upslope may focus snow showers a bit more and where temps will be a couple of degrees cooler. Anyone could see a quick/likely brief dusting though Tuesday as the snow showers ramp up overland. Any more organized LES by Tuesday afternoon will likely break up, however, with remarkably cold 500mb temps of around -40C expect numerous convective snow showers to continue across much of the state Tuesday afternoon. The snow showers will be briefly heavy and may quickly produce a dusting where they track. In the higher terrain, there may be somewhat better odds at enough snow showers during the afternoon for a little additional accumulation, though normally this time of year any accumulations from these convective snow showers melt pretty quickly between showers. Temps outside of perhaps the higher terrain in north-central and northeastern OH/NW PA where it will be close to freezing will be in the mid to upper 30s between snow showers. The main concern with the diurnal convective snow showers will be visibility reductions and perhaps briefly slick roads. A sharp surface trough drops across the lake into north-central and NE OH Tuesday evening. The models have shown this feature for several runs and it appears to be tied to a vort max at 700mb rotating around the western edge of the trough. The vort max may cause a further intensification of the diurnal snow showers late Tuesday afternoon from western OH to SE OH, and as the sun goes down any lingering intense snow showers could drop a quick half inch or inch before weakening overnight with the loss of daytime heating. The big concern will remain significant visibility reductions and brief slick roads. Downwind of Lake Erie, the sharp surface trough when combined with soundings showing instability and moisture to over 13k feet will likely result in a brief but intense period of squalls during the evening. Moisture from Lake Huron again looks to work into NE OH with this feature. Some global models bring the Lake Huron moisture towards Mansfield again in this timeframe, but with a NW to NNW flow will again side with the hi-res NAM and RGEM that drop the Lake Huron moisture into the Cleveland area and surrounding Snowbelts. With this burst occurring near or after sundown it should accumulate downwind of Lake Erie. The best may again be in NE OH as opposed to NW PA in this timeframe given closer proximity to the mid-level vort max and track of the upstream moisture. Organization (lack thereof) and short duration will probably limit amounts, but given the very deep instability and sharp nature of the trough, a quick dusting to locally 3” is possible downwind of Lake Erie Tuesday evening, especially in the higher terrain where it’ll be a little colder and where precip amounts will be maximized. This may cause a period of hazardous travel conditions. Another little shortwave/spoke of synoptic moisture/lift drops through Wednesday morning. Some disagreement to how far west this gets. NW PA looks like a good bet, and many models do at least hit the primary NE OH Snowbelt. Cleveland area is iffier, though the 18z NAM and RGEM do get a burst of snow as far west as the secondary Snowbelt. With decent looking snow ratios, a favorable WNW to NW upslope flow, duration of perhaps several hours in NW PA, and enough low-level instability for decent lake enhancement, this may produce decent accumulations. Snow rates of an inch per hour may occur in the higher terrain. Will expect 3-6” in interior NW PA, 2-4” in the higher terrain in the primary NE OH Snowbelt, and 1-2” in the higher terrain of the secondary NE OH Snowbelt late Tuesday night-Wednesday morning. This is all dependent on how far west the lobe of synoptic moisture/lift gets, which is uncertain. Adjustments up or down are possible. Should be a decent lull Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday between systems. For total accums…in the higher terrain in the primary NE OH Snowbelt, am going around 1” tonight, 0.5-2” Tuesday morning, less than 0.5” Tuesday afternoon, 1-3” Tuesday evening, and 2-4” late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for 4.5-10.5” (will call it 4-8” for now). Some melting may occur during the day Tuesday between snow showers. In the secondary Snowbelt am figuring 0.5 to 1” tonight, 0.5-2” Tuesday morning, less than 0.5” Tuesday afternoon, 1-3” Tuesday evening, and 1-2” late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for about 3-6” total. For NW PA am thinking 4-8” in the higher terrain, as the snow through Tuesday evening may not be that impressive there, but that will likely be made up for late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Some models have more QPF there Wednesday morning, so that will have to be watched. Will also drag 1-3” into the central highlands and also the rest of NE OH south of the Snowbelt due to decent bursts of snow working south from the lake, especially Tuesday evening. Do think all of OH is at risk for some quick bursts of snow producing a dusting Tuesday into Tuesday evening. With a short fetch off the lake and milder temps near the water, am expected a good bit less snow near the lakeshore than in the higher terrain inland. The period between late Tuesday PM and Wednesday AM may prompt some advisories in NW PA and perhaps the higher terrain of the NE OH Snowbelts. If the wetter solutions pan out for early Wednesday inland Erie County could flirt with needing a warning. Here's my map for NE OH:

Yeah, it’s pretty obvious that the ERI total is off by a significant amount. It’s been a consistent issue all winter. It’s like they’re clearing the board every hour and then adding a few inches on every 12 hours on top of that. They had like 20” more snow than the next highest report from 7am on Christmas through 7am on 12/26 during the “record” lake effect event, and there were other measurements very close by that were much lower. I have no idea how much the total is off by this winter but it’s probably a laughable amount, possibly a few feet. I don’t know how that can happen.

0.7" here additional today. Storm total of 10.8" and a seasonal total of 81.5". Decent winter out here.