OHweather

Let's see how this does. Actually a pretty good W to WSW flow setup later tonight into Tuesday morning with a deep layer of steep lapse rates, synoptic moisture and moisture from Lake Michigan, and a decent shot of synoptic lift from a shortwave moving by Tuesday morning. I think there's a pretty intense W-E band for a time tomorrow morning with 1-2" per hour rates in the northern Snowbelt. Assuming it hits the higher terrain for any length of time, several inches should be doable with temps below freezing.

Hate to say it, but I think there could be a few inches of snow in parts of the snowbelt Monday night into Tuesday morning. Enough instability for lake enhancement, with a potent vort max dropping across the lake bringing a nice shot of synoptic moisture and lift. Winds swing from WSW to WNW as it goes by. Think there's a general area of snow showers that moves through giving much of north-central and NE OH a dusting, with a band of more robust LES that starts off near the shore and swings inland across all of the snowbelt and probably the Cleveland area early Tuesday that could drop a few inches on the northern Snowbelt and maybe a couple of inches on the Cleveland metro.

1.3” here. Wasn’t paying much attention and a bit of a surprise. CLE even reported 1”/hr rates in one of their hourly obs.

Measured 4.9” here about 40 minutes ago. Nice surprise. It’s been snowing since so I’m sure I’m at or a bit over 5”

Those are some insane pics! Congrats on getting the property...definitely one of the better spots downwind of Lake Erie for snow. There will be a little more LES this afternoon through early Friday...not much, but if there's an upstream lake connection there could be a few inches, most likely downwind of Lake Huron into NW PA. Maybe a synoptic snow threat around the middle of next week.

Had a hard time getting a good measurement on the new snow since it started melting in the warmer/thinner spots as it was still falling, but will estimate around half an inch for an event total of 4.6”. If it was January I probably would’ve gotten a good 1-2” during the day today.

Measured 1.4” new as of 9am for an event total of 4.1”. It’s been snowing decently since, at times moderate and blowing some.

Only 0.6” since my last measurement for 1.7” so far. In the few areas that were bare that new snow has actually melted. About 4” on the ground on average. Nice squalls lined up into MI sliding across the lake over the next few hours so we will see how it goes.

1.1" here overnight. Just had another squall drop a quick quarter inch. The squall potential across much of the state looks good this afternoon and evening. A few strikes out lightning could even occur.

Complicated setup over the next couple of days, but there will be rounds of snow with accumulations likely. A shortwave/weak surface low going by this afternoon is causing some flurries and light snow with no real accumulations with temps above freezing. Tonight this wave and lift pull off to the east, but a relatively unstable airmass currently over lower MI/IN/NW OH will drift east across the lake tonight. Though the snow showers over lower MI are largely diurnally driven, the steep low-level lapse rates and good moisture will slide east. Mixing over the low to mid 30s water of Lake Erie should cause this airmass to produce light to briefly moderate lake effect snow showers this evening into tonight across parts of NE OH and NW PA as the corridor of moist/unstable low-level air slides east. The RAP forecast soundings have good moisture/lapse rates up to 7-8k feet at CLE as this airmass moves overhead this evening with NW winds. The NAM soundings are drier/more stable, but have generally found that an airmass that produces widespread diurnal snow showers overland will produce some lake response as the diurnal snow showers over land decrease. With a NW flow expect the higher terrain from the secondary Snowbelt south of CLE east across the primary NE OH Snowbelt and interior NW PA to have the best shot at some accumulations tonight. Duration of favorable conditions is only a few hours in any given area and organization doesn’t look great, but the layer of instability appears deep enough for moderate bursts. Tend to think a dusting to up to an inch or inch and a half is likely tonight downwind of the lake, with the best shot at around an inch or so in the higher terrain. Perhaps a brief lull late tonight before the next potent shortwave/vort max passes late Tuesday morning. The strongest lift from this vort max may track a little southwest of the Cleveland area and NE OH, however, some increased lift along with a lobe of upstream moisture and the layer of instability deepening to over 10k feet should allow for a decent period of snow showers Tuesday morning with this feature. Some models take the upstream moisture towards the central highlands in this period, but with a NW or NNW flow I don’t buy the Lake Huron moisture moving that far southwest. Think it will affect the Cleveland area and perhaps secondary Snowbelt, and the rest of NE OH. The best snow in this period may miss NW PA to the west, but some increase is possible in this area. Some bursts could put down a quick inch or two of snow Tuesday morning downwind of Lake Erie in NE OH as the vort max goes by, however, again a lack of organization and fairly short duration, along with known difficulties accumulating during the day this late on the year, hard to get excited about much more. Outside of the Snowbelt, expect to see diurnal snow showers that are briefly heavy pop up. Best shot at some light accumulations outside of the lake effect may be in the central highlands where upslope may focus snow showers a bit more and where temps will be a couple of degrees cooler. Anyone could see a quick/likely brief dusting though Tuesday as the snow showers ramp up overland. Any more organized LES by Tuesday afternoon will likely break up, however, with remarkably cold 500mb temps of around -40C expect numerous convective snow showers to continue across much of the state Tuesday afternoon. The snow showers will be briefly heavy and may quickly produce a dusting where they track. In the higher terrain, there may be somewhat better odds at enough snow showers during the afternoon for a little additional accumulation, though normally this time of year any accumulations from these convective snow showers melt pretty quickly between showers. Temps outside of perhaps the higher terrain in north-central and northeastern OH/NW PA where it will be close to freezing will be in the mid to upper 30s between snow showers. The main concern with the diurnal convective snow showers will be visibility reductions and perhaps briefly slick roads. A sharp surface trough drops across the lake into north-central and NE OH Tuesday evening. The models have shown this feature for several runs and it appears to be tied to a vort max at 700mb rotating around the western edge of the trough. The vort max may cause a further intensification of the diurnal snow showers late Tuesday afternoon from western OH to SE OH, and as the sun goes down any lingering intense snow showers could drop a quick half inch or inch before weakening overnight with the loss of daytime heating. The big concern will remain significant visibility reductions and brief slick roads. Downwind of Lake Erie, the sharp surface trough when combined with soundings showing instability and moisture to over 13k feet will likely result in a brief but intense period of squalls during the evening. Moisture from Lake Huron again looks to work into NE OH with this feature. Some global models bring the Lake Huron moisture towards Mansfield again in this timeframe, but with a NW to NNW flow will again side with the hi-res NAM and RGEM that drop the Lake Huron moisture into the Cleveland area and surrounding Snowbelts. With this burst occurring near or after sundown it should accumulate downwind of Lake Erie. The best may again be in NE OH as opposed to NW PA in this timeframe given closer proximity to the mid-level vort max and track of the upstream moisture. Organization (lack thereof) and short duration will probably limit amounts, but given the very deep instability and sharp nature of the trough, a quick dusting to locally 3” is possible downwind of Lake Erie Tuesday evening, especially in the higher terrain where it’ll be a little colder and where precip amounts will be maximized. This may cause a period of hazardous travel conditions. Another little shortwave/spoke of synoptic moisture/lift drops through Wednesday morning. Some disagreement to how far west this gets. NW PA looks like a good bet, and many models do at least hit the primary NE OH Snowbelt. Cleveland area is iffier, though the 18z NAM and RGEM do get a burst of snow as far west as the secondary Snowbelt. With decent looking snow ratios, a favorable WNW to NW upslope flow, duration of perhaps several hours in NW PA, and enough low-level instability for decent lake enhancement, this may produce decent accumulations. Snow rates of an inch per hour may occur in the higher terrain. Will expect 3-6” in interior NW PA, 2-4” in the higher terrain in the primary NE OH Snowbelt, and 1-2” in the higher terrain of the secondary NE OH Snowbelt late Tuesday night-Wednesday morning. This is all dependent on how far west the lobe of synoptic moisture/lift gets, which is uncertain. Adjustments up or down are possible. Should be a decent lull Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday between systems. For total accums…in the higher terrain in the primary NE OH Snowbelt, am going around 1” tonight, 0.5-2” Tuesday morning, less than 0.5” Tuesday afternoon, 1-3” Tuesday evening, and 2-4” late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for 4.5-10.5” (will call it 4-8” for now). Some melting may occur during the day Tuesday between snow showers. In the secondary Snowbelt am figuring 0.5 to 1” tonight, 0.5-2” Tuesday morning, less than 0.5” Tuesday afternoon, 1-3” Tuesday evening, and 1-2” late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for about 3-6” total. For NW PA am thinking 4-8” in the higher terrain, as the snow through Tuesday evening may not be that impressive there, but that will likely be made up for late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Some models have more QPF there Wednesday morning, so that will have to be watched. Will also drag 1-3” into the central highlands and also the rest of NE OH south of the Snowbelt due to decent bursts of snow working south from the lake, especially Tuesday evening. Do think all of OH is at risk for some quick bursts of snow producing a dusting Tuesday into Tuesday evening. With a short fetch off the lake and milder temps near the water, am expected a good bit less snow near the lakeshore than in the higher terrain inland. The period between late Tuesday PM and Wednesday AM may prompt some advisories in NW PA and perhaps the higher terrain of the NE OH Snowbelts. If the wetter solutions pan out for early Wednesday inland Erie County could flirt with needing a warning. Here's my map for NE OH:

Yeah, it’s pretty obvious that the ERI total is off by a significant amount. It’s been a consistent issue all winter. It’s like they’re clearing the board every hour and then adding a few inches on every 12 hours on top of that. They had like 20” more snow than the next highest report from 7am on Christmas through 7am on 12/26 during the “record” lake effect event, and there were other measurements very close by that were much lower. I have no idea how much the total is off by this winter but it’s probably a laughable amount, possibly a few feet. I don’t know how that can happen.

0.7" here additional today. Storm total of 10.8" and a seasonal total of 81.5". Decent winter out here.

Yeah, it’s unusual to get a lot of lake effect in March...imagine if the lake was at late November water temps. This has been a decent week or so here.

I’ve probably tacked on a little more from off and on snow showers today that have been briefly intense. We may see some more organized lake effect for a few hours later this afternoon and evening with instability and moisture to 7-8k feet, some pre-seeding from Michigan, and a well-aligned flow near 280. With a ridge moving in lowering inversions and causing us to lose the cyclonic flow overnight I doubt it surprises as much as the other night, but could see some 1-3” type accumulations in spots thru this evening. We get another cold shot Tuesday-Wednesday. The Euro has 500mb temps around -40 which is impressive and indicative of a deep cold airmass. Winds look NW to NNW Tuesday-Wednesday with potentially some lobes of good moisture rotating through. Despite the short fetch, I have to think there could be some more plowable lake effect Tuesday-Wednesday, especially if we time a period of better snow with night. If there are any upstream connections there could be enough for some sort of advisories at some point.

Hmm. Well, I’m glad you got a decent snow at home finally. As for the airport, they recorded 3 hours of moderate snow in the evening with 0.29” of liquid. I’m not sure if that was from the gauge or a core sample of the snow. If it’s from the gauge, it was windy so it’s possible it under caught the liquid a bit. Either way, it seems like some sort of stretch for them to get 6” out of it, but not completely impossible. If right down the road you came in today and there was no where near 6”, that does make it more suspicious. I asked CLE a couple months ago about some of the measurements there and never got a response.

There were a couple of lake enhanced events since January where the winds turned NW and produced well in your area and into Summit and Portage...I guess one had to go the other way eventually.

6.5” additional overnight for a total so far of 8.3” from “round 2” and 10.2” storm total.

I thought I was going to bed but the damn cat wasn’t happy with the generous food offering I had for her when I got home and woke me up. Good thing too because terrain enhancement is really lighting up now and I’m seeing some of the best snow of the event so far here. Enhanced band of moisture moving towards the primary NE OH Snowbelt the next few hours. Another better area on the west side producing a good area of light snow in north-central OH. A bit of a hole near Cleveland but convergence persists over Lorain and Cuyahoga keeping better snow going there despite a bit less moisture. NW PA appears to be in a lull now. Pretty cool to see how each variable such as moisture, wind patterns, terrain, and synoptic lift affect the snow in real time.

I’m absolutely beat and for the first time in a while am going to bed early during a snow event. I’ll just have to wake up and look outside in the morning like normal humans do. 1.8” as of my 9pm measurement on the day for a total of 3.7” since Wednesday evening. Pretty good area of convergence from northern Lorain Co points east across the Cleveland area and Snowbelt focusing light to moderate snow. The best snow is in the orographic lift hot spot in NE OH and also probably into parts of NW PA as the low and a potent Huron band push through. Outside of the lake enhancement the synoptic snow is light. Copious moisture feeds our snow for a while and 850mb temps hold or cool a bit...and modest synoptic lift continues for several more hours...so the snow should continue at a similar intensity until probably 2am give or take, and even then will only slowly diminish with some synoptic moisture lingering until close to sunrise. The snow will probably sag south a bit over the next few hours as winds slowly veer, but then the snow should stabilize and inch back north towards morning. More of a showery lake effect on Friday, not organized but may be a bit bursty as instability improves and another shortwave goes by with a W to WNW flow. Overall the forecast appears to be ballpark. Given how much longer moisture will feed into this setup and a convergent flow with some orographic lift continuing...and half decent ratios...the higher terrain will grind out decent additional amounts overnight.

Nice. Glad they finally issued some warnings. Radar looks encouraging so far.

The lake effect overnight definitely performed better than expected...I'll take it. Here are some "quick" thoughts and an updated map for additional snow before I'm late for work... The forecast upper-low and surface low track have shifted east since Wednesday morning’s model runs, which results in the best shot of synoptic lift and snow occurring mainly across the primary NE OH Snowbelt, and also increases the snow a bit for NW PA. This has resulting in some reduction on the southern and western sides from yesterday. Forecast amounts for this leg of the event in the primary Snowbelt remain similar, but this map doesn’t reflect last night’s lake effect and only shows additional snow. For some specifics, obs and radar support snow rates probably maxing out around 1”/hour in eastern lower MI this morning. Given a good shot of lift from positive vorticity advection beneath a fairly potent vort max, low to mid-level frontogenesis, and low-level convergence, along with some enhancement from Lake Erie, still think we’re on track to see snow ramp back up this afternoon and peak late afternoon through the evening, with rates of 1-2” per hour still possible at times where the better organized areas of low-level convergence and lake enhancement occur. Model soundings still show steep lapse rates and moisture to around 500mb for quite a while later this afternoon and this evening in NE OH, with decent snow growth as well until late tonight when the better mid-level support diminishes. Wasn’t expecting the lake effect to be so organized and far south still, but think as winds turn SW over the lake over the next few hours that may still try to lift north for a time. If not, it’s beginning to get enhanced by synoptic moisture and will put down additional accums until it lifts north (assuming it ever does). Given a few hours of potentially heavy rates in the primary Snowbelt and getting into the Cleveland area, with some light snow before and also after lingering into Friday morning, think 6-10” of additional snow is still doable. The snow may diminish for a few hours late tonight and briefly re-intensify Friday morning with a shortwave going by, some lake induced instability, and a flow around 280 degrees, but am only figuring an additional 1-3” Friday morning from Cuyahoga County points north/east. Lowered amounts a bit in the secondary Snowbelt, but still have 3-6” there. Winds only get up to 280 to 290 degrees later tonight which can get a band into that area, but it’s a little iffier now and the synoptic snow will be lighter there than initially thought. Even so, still think they see a 15 or so hour window for snow that’s moderate at times and fairly high ratio, so think several inches will still be possible. This isn’t a good setup for the lakeshore, so aside from the eastern lakeshore where some lake effect snow is still ongoing this morning am not expecting more than 1-4” along the shore. Went a little on the higher end of model guidance down towards Akron and Youngstown. The flow not gaining as much of a northerly component makes it iffier down that way, but the synoptic snow will still push SE this evening and they may still see some lake enhancement, so was nervous to go less than 2-4” for that corridor. Interior NW PA has a better shot at 4-8” of snow tonight through Friday AM with a better burst of synoptic snow this evening than thought yesterday.

0.6” overnight as the band briefly moved over me before dissipating for an event total of 1.9” so far.

Pretty impressive LES band this evening. Parts of northeastern and east-central Cuyahoga County into northern and central Geauga County will probably see 3-6” of snow as I’ve heard places in NW Geauga already have seen about 4”. I saw 1.3” earlier this evening with a couple of intense squalls but just flurries since. The forecast track of the little low dropping SSE later Thursday has shifted east and a bit slower, putting the focus of the snow more on the evening and likely mainly the primary NE OH Snowbelt. This may reduce amounts some in the Cleveland area and secondary Snowbelt from initial thoughts, though the primary should still see a good burst of heavy snow. Time permitting may post a map before work in the morning for additional snowfall with tonight’s lake effect off the boards by then.

I just got about an inch of snow in 20 minutes with an intense squall. Possibly the heaviest snow I've seen this winter. I've missed this since the lake froze last month.

Have gotten a nice dusting of snow here over the last hour or so with a couple of squalls...here's my map and writeup (this does include the snow falling now)... A flare-up of snow is beginning to occur as of this writing (4:30PM), with an area of light synoptic snow moving across Lake Erie and grazing the lakeshore. There may be a bit of lake enhancement of this snow, with some moderate bursts possible. This will pull east pretty quickly by early to mid-evening, but may drop less than an inch in NE OH east of Cleveland and perhaps a quick 1-2” in Erie County, PA. Behind this wave of synoptic moisture driven by some weak mid-level deformation lake effect conditions will improve this evening. Winds will be fairly well aligned at 275-285 in the lowest several thousand feet, with steep lapse rates and good moisture up to 9-10k feet. In addition, a disorganized area of numerous snow showers from Lake Michigan will move east across Lake Erie into the central lakeshore and NE OH Snowbelt this evening for a few hours, providing good pre-conditioning. A little 700mb vort max will also move across the lakeshore counties providing for some upward motion below 700mb. Given all of these generally favorable conditions, some bursts of decent snow are possible from Lorain County (and perhaps extreme northern Medina and Summit Counties) points east this evening mainly between 7pm and midnight. After midnight, winds back a bit and start pushing the Lake Michigan moisture and lake effect up the shore into the northern primary Snowbelt in NE OH and into NW PA. Some sinking motion behind the 700mb vort max and a bit of drying in the mid-levels will likely cause the lake effect to become less intense after midnight, though I’d imagine some snow showers will continue in the northern Snowbelt overnight and into early Thursday. Increasing convergence early Thursday morning may focus a weak band across the lakeshore from Lake County northeast through Erie County, PA. All in all, I don’t think the lake effect will be organized or long-lasting enough for a big accum tonight, but I’ve seen these types of setup (deep instability/good pre-seeding, with fairly light winds) produce pretty impressive bursts of snow that can drop an inch or two in an hour or less. Snow growth isn’t optimal, with some lift in the DGZ this evening but the best lift below it. This may result in some graupel at times and ratios not much above 10:1. So, I think I’ll go with a general 1-3” from parts of Lorain County and the Cleveland metro points east. If a better convergence band can organized into extreme NE OH or NW PA near the lake later tonight, that may allow for some 3-4” amounts, especially since those areas may see a little more from the brief shot of synoptic snow this evening. The lake effect should briefly lift out over the lake for everyone in OH and PA Thursday morning as winds turn SWrly. Synoptic snow will increase Thursday afternoon and peak late afternoon and early evening as a number of things happen. A compact surface low will drop SE across eastern Lake Erie during the late afternoon and early evening. The low will likely open up by evening, but will cause a sharp trough and broadly cyclonic and convergent low-level flow on the back-side of it that will push inland off the lake during the late afternoon. There will also be some low to mid-level frontogenesis along the aforementioned trough axis west of the low as some modified Atlantic air wraps all the way around the storm and comes in from the north. In addition, there will be a very strong vort max with the closed 500mb low that will drop right into the Cleveland area. All of these sources of lift…along with steep lapse rates and deep moisture up to around 500mb due to 500mb temps of colder than -35C…will cause moderate to heavy snow. It wouldn’t shock me if there was some lightning along any stronger convergence-driven bands of heavier snow given the deep layer of steep lapse rates. Given the deep layer of instability, some lake enhancement, and multiple sources of decent lift, snow rates may hit 2-3” per hour late Thursday afternoon and evening for brief periods with any better bands of snow focused by low-level convergence. Am thinking the best period of snow will last about 3 hours in any given area, but may coincide pretty well with the Thursday PM commute and may quickly but down 2-5” of snow in 3 hours, locally more if there are some well-defined bands. Temps will be right near freezing, but good snow growth and heavy rates should allow for ratios a bit higher than 10:1 despite the somewhat milder surface temps. Right near the lake may sit a little bit above freezing which may slow accums a bit near the lake, but if it snows hard it will accumulate. There may be some snow showers for a few hours ahead of the best burst that may produce an inch or so, especially in the higher terrain. There is some disagreement with the exact low track, with some models trying to take the low a little farther west and drop the best snow west of Cleveland. I tend to think the low will hug the relatively warmer waters of Lake Huron and Lake Erie and stay on the eastern side of guidance. The more consistent models such as the Euro ensembles, UKMET, Canadian, and hi-res NAM since last night agree on the best snow going into the Cleveland metro and NE OH Snowbelt. NW PA should see a burst in the evening, but the best will likely be in NE OH. My forecast is based on the premise that the best snows with the system Thursday late afternoon and evening will be from the Cleveland metro east, but mainly west of NW PA. Behind the potentially furious burst late Thursday, some lighter snow will linger Thursday night into Friday morning. Some mid-level isentropic lift could keep patchy light synoptic snow going, as modified Atlantic air continues to ride up the core of the colder air with the upper-level low pulling away to the ESE. This, along with 850mb temps around -10C and plenty of low-level moisture, along with a WNW flow, will keep light to moderate snow going in the Snowbelt. The flow may remain somewhat convergent behind the low for the rest of Thursday evening, perhaps allowing for some corridors of more organized snow. Also will have to watch the zone from Lorain and Medina Counties east across the southern NE OH Snowbelt, as a flow around 290 or so often focused some convergence in that corridor that may keep moderate snow going for a longer period of time. One last shortwave moves through late Friday morning/early afternoon, which may keep some light to locally moderate lake effect/enhanced snow going until about noon. Winds look 280-290, so the snow will likely be focused from Cuyahoga County (and perhaps northern Lorain and extreme northern Summit) points north/east Friday morning, with the heaviest in the higher terrain where good low-level moisture will continue to promote orographic enhancement. In terms of total accums…thinking 1-3” tonight (locally 3-4” extreme NE OH into parts of Erie Co)…and then a general 4-8” Thursday afternoon through Thursday night in the primary NE OH Snowbelt, with 3-6” in the secondary Snowbelt and probably 2-5” in NW PA. If any persistent areas of convergence linger in NE OH, some locally higher amounts may occur Thursday night. Expect another 1-3” Friday morning from Cuyahoga County and perhaps extreme northern Lorain/Summit points north-east. Snow showers will continue into Friday evening but will add up to little additional accumulation. This gives totals of about 5-10” in NW PA (best shot at 10” in the higher terrain of Erie County)…about 6-14” in the higher terrain of the NE OH Snowbelt (will call it 7-13” to trim the range a bit)…and a good half foot or so for parts of the secondary Snowbelt south of Cleveland. Will drop amounts off to the southwest, though much of northern OH could see some light accumulations from the synoptic snow. Here’s my map at this point, which includes the snow falling now.