OHweather

I have to imagine the odds of having the warmest years on record back to back are quite low...probably a combination of all the left-over heat from the very strong El Nino in 2015-16 and a generally warmer planet overall than when records began in the late 1800s. Pretty decent snow band has settled into a good chunk of Cuyahoga County, which is impressive since its fetch is entirely over ice. It's snowing good here with a visibility under half a mile, but flake size is less than stellar so it's not adding up too fast. Winds hardly move until mid-evening, but after 3 or 4pm we lose the modest large-scale lift from a weak vort max passing overhead and the thermodynamics degrade gradually, so the snow should start weakening some later this afternoon and then will lift northeast up the shore later this evening. We'll see if someone in Cuyahoga County can manage a few inches. Based on some obs it appears the rest of the Snowbelt is seeing some decent bands that may be getting overshot by the radar, Ashtabula and Erie have reported some decently low visibilities at times. Likely a similar situation with poor flake size keeping rates from getting out of hand in these areas, but hopefully someone can squeak out a 6" total somewhere.

Band looks like its sagging south as the winds turn. We'll see how far south it goes and if it holds together. Can see some moisture flux from northwest of Cleveland, we'll see if it's enough for snow into the metro area this afternoon. Was in Kirkland and got on I-90 at 306 in the heart of the band a few minutes ago and it's coming down, visibility near 1/8 of a mile. Thank God I'm not driving right now. Surprised CLE didn't go with an advisory for Lake/Geauga/Ashtabula.

I'm really glad yesterday's event did well IMBY for this reason. I will say, we had a number of minor to moderate events late in the frigid winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 when the lake was frozen, and a brief torch with rain and wind can really move some ice around, so we'll get more LES, but it's not quite the same without a fully loaded western basin.

Just some quick thoughts before I head out for the night... Winds will be WNW, however, am concerned the ice near the southern shore and also over the western basin extending into the central basin may allow the shoreline convergence to occur a little farther north closer to the remaining open water. Ice coverage over the western basin is now over 90% with a thickness of 6-12"+, which is thick enough to be more prohibitive of good heat/moisture flux. So, will cut off the snow farther northeast than I would for this type of flow with an open lake. Still, with some moisture flux and a good fetch from Lake Michigan aimed towards the Cleveland area, was nervous enough to include an inch or two for the Cleveland metro and expand the 2-4" a bit farther SW than the hi-res models suggest. With a well-aligned WNW flow from early Monday AM through the evening before the winds start backing and pushing the snow up the shoreline, will be a 12 or so hour window of good snow. Parameters are OK with EL heights near 8k feet and moderate instability. The airmass is quite dry but Lake Michigan pre-conditioning and reasonably light/well-aligned winds will make up for that a bit. The NAM shows super-saturation with respect to ice in the upper half of the very shallow dendritic growth zone and upward motion in the DGZ, so if the NAM doesn't bust too high with its dew points there should still be enough snow growth for decent ratios, though the airmass is quite cold and it's close, if dew points are lower than the NAM ratios may struggle outside of any stronger bnd. Given OK instability and a good WNW fetch without a ton of movement for around 12 hours, will go with 4-8" in the northern primary Snowbelt. There may be a convergence band possibly from NE Cuyahoga into southern Lake/northern Geauga/Ashtabula caused by the interface between mostly ice-covered and thicker ice and open water pushing the convergence a bit north of the shoreline. Where any more dominant bands develop over NE OH/NW PA will be where the best shot at closer to 8" will be. Think there will be a band that develops over the northern Snowbelt from Lake/Ashtabula/Erie Counties early Monday ahead of a vort max that then swings SW as winds go WNW by later morning. The band will likely lift NE Monday night then push over the lake by Tuesday. Could see a locally higher amount in Erie County as they'll have a longer window for snow through Monday night than NE OH. Happy New Year!

My 12 hourly measurement is 5.6"...I measured 5.6" between 7:15 and 10:45, including about 3.5" between 8:30 and 9:30. My storm total is up to 10", with 8.2" of LES in there. This will do just fine. Monthly total 27.8" which I'd imagine is above average for this area.

I've gotten over 5" since shortly before 7:30 when it started to really come down (and yes roughly 4" between 8:30 and 9:40). This is nuts. Visibility is less than 1/4 of a mile and it's raining down large dendrites. Hoping the band doesn't push to my south but it looks like it's about to. This is still fantastic either way.

As of about 8:30 I had gotten 1.5" from this burst in about 75 minutes, but it's probably coming down at around 2"/hour right now. Looks like it may maintain close to this intensity for another 2-3 hours before gradually weakening. Hi-res models suggest this general area may see some sort of snow into morning. We'll see what it adds up to. My 12 hour total was 2.6" pushing my storm total so far to 4.4"

Just started really coming down here. Wasn't much of an organized band, but a nice blob of heavy snow on the east side downwind of Lake Huron. Didn't expect it this far west, let's see if it lasts.

Murphy's Law I guess. Band is slow to move when it's to our north and races south past us when it finally budges. That surprised me a bit as well. I actually managed at least at inch out of the band, maybe an inch and a half, it was over me for a little over an hour and the snow was very efficient. The band has as expected become a bit less organized as it pushes south and the LES north of it isn't too intense right now. Lift and moisture increase late afternoon through mid evening as another vort max and trough push through. Given winds are only WNW now, I definitely expect another transient but intense band to form over the Cleveland area and primary Snowbelt later this afternoon and then swing south through the evening. I could see somewhere getting a quick 3-4" where the band initially develops for a couple hours then a quick inch or two as it pushes south. Decent lake effect may immediately develop behind the band for a brief period as good synoptic moisture lingers as the winds go NNW. Later this evening and through the overnight moisture does diminish but instability remains extreme and winds well-aligned, so snow should diminish outside of any lingering bands. A decent Huron connection still appears likely likely over Ashtabula County and possibly into eastern Lake/Geaga and western Erie Counties at times through Sunday. This could add at least several inches additional overnight tonight through Sunday to those areas, more if it stalls anywhere. Outside of that, the ice orientation and cutoff near Cleveland may allow some modest convergence into the east side later tonight Iater tonight into Sunday morning which may focus a secondary band into that area. That could be a secondary corridor to watch for a band with some additional accums overnight tonight into Sunday. The hi-res models appear to be under-doing moisture flux over the icier water so their QPF may be too low on the western edge of things.

1.8" so far. I can say this likely would've been a big event for the Cleveland area with a wide-open lake. We'll see what we can squeak out with the ice. Clouds are clearing blossoming over the ice so there's still some juice, hopefully enough. Also, nice pics from Erie. Luckily you've gotten to see the snow at work I guess.

I have mixed feelings about those products. Some offices have been doing them for a few years. Some offices (CLE included) just can't get them right. Right now their low end amount for Chardon is 11" and their high end amount is 13"...so there's a 80% chance that around a foot of lake effect will fall within a 2" range...not quite. Their probabilistic maps for the amounts are the same way with sharp drops from 100% to 0%...again not quite how it should look. And their forecast in this instance (and many other instances this winter) actually matches the 90th percentile...again, that shouldn't be the case. In Athens in January of 2016 (prior to "Jonas") a day out RLX had less than 1" as our low-end amount and like 20" as our high-end. When stuff like this happens I don't find these maps to be at all helpful to planners...not sure what goes into them and how much input the forecaster has, but other offices don't have these issues as frequently.

I hope there's enough juice. My story for this one is the central basin is still open and the ice out west isn't too thick yet...but it's not ideal. If we do get enough moisture flux off the lake, the winds going from WSW to NNW with a lot of instability and synoptic support should give many areas a shot at some accumulating LES, so hopefully, it works out. Obviously, the ice will expand and thicken a lot over the next 10 days, which will make it considerably more difficult to see good LES. Models are showing a nice W or WNW flow setup on Monday so I'm sure the Primary Snowbelt will cash in some more then.

Unfortunately, another snow event where I don't have time to do more than a text-only write-up...pretty interesting forecast yet again...this map is valid Friday-Sunday PM. More LES will likely continue through at least Monday and I'll work on that at some point. The lake will be even icier by then. Snow should push onshore into northeastern Ashtabula and Erie County near the lakeshore by around noon Friday as winds on the lake come around to west with WSW winds on land behind the passage of a vort max and surface trough/possible meso-low over the lake. This general wind pattern with W winds over the lake and WSW winds on land focusing convergence near the coast in Erie, Ashtabula, and possibly NE Lake Counties will persist all of Friday afternoon and into the early evening before winds shift more SWrly and push the convergence out over the lake. This will still be a good 7 or 8 hours of potential banding near the lakeshore in eastern Ashtabula and Erie Counties (possibly brushing NE Lake and western Ashtabula County) Friday afternoon into the evening. Thermodynamics during the afternoon will be decently supportive with moderate instability, EL heights of 10-11k feet, and good moisture to around 7k feet including in the DGZ. EL heights drop off some towards evening due to mid-level warm air advection ahead of the incoming clipper. With the decent thermodynamics/moisture, strong convergence near the shore, weak shear in the mixed layer, and near-optimal snow growth have to think snow rates of around 2" per hour will accompany the heart of the snow band Friday afternoon and early evening. The band will mainly hug the shore and not move a ton, and may produce 6-12" of snow near the lake in Erie County and also northeast Asthabula County, dropping off quickly farther inland. There may be an inch or two as far southwest as northeastern Lake County. The clipper snow doesn't look extremely impressive in N OH Friday evening and Friday night. There will be some lift in the form of upper-level divergence evident at 500mb (which is above the level of non-divergence in winter), some mid-level positive vorticity advection, and weak isentropic lift/warm-air advection evident at times at 700mb and 850mb. This will generally cause a decently long period where light snow will be possible. Forecast soundings currently suggest that the strongest lift may be above the DGZ during the synoptic snow keeping ratios somewhat in check, and the sources for lift aren't extremely strong, so I tend to think amounts with the clipper in northern OH/NW PA will only be 1-2". There may be pixie dust or small flakes falling for a while which will be nice, but they won't add up a ton. Winds will come back around to the W or WNW over the lake by Saturday morning which will bring lake effect back into the picture. Lingering synoptic moisture to over 10k feet through most of the morning and outstanding thermodynamics with EL heights of 10-12k feet (higher at ERI) and steep lapse rates to go along with convergence near the shoreline will support an intense lake effect snow band. In addition, a potent vort max will pass overhead late morning and early afternoon, adding some large-scale lift. Given nearly optimal snow growth, rates of 2 to locally 4” per hour will be possible in the heart of the band. Band placement will be important, as some areas may see a lot of snow quickly in the Saturday morning/early afternoon timeframe. To start the day, winds will be W over the lake and WSW on land…a familiar pattern…which will likely drive the band onshore over northeastern Ashtabula County and the Erie County lakeshore. It may be snowing in parts of Lake County but likely won’t be that heavy at this juncture. Winds will continue to slowly gain a more northerly component and by mid-morning are expected to be WNW over the lake and slightly south of due west of land. With an approaching vort max (which seems to tend to keep winds more “backed” or southerly around the lake) and shoreline convergence, don’t think the band will push inland too fast, but may get into far NE Cuyahoga and northern Geauga by mid-morning, with heavier snow spreading into Lake County and the rest of northern Asthabula County. Snow may start spreading a bit farther inland over Erie County by mid-morning. The vort max passes around noon which should nudge the surface trough farther south as the winds likely gain more of a northerly component behind the vort max. This should allow the band to gradually resume a more southward drift during the early afternoon. I don’t expect the band to get too far south, as the vort max really only grazes the region with no big height falls with it, so there shouldn’t be a huge push of northerly winds Saturday afternoon…but likely enough to get the band into a good chunk of Cuyahoga County (possibly into the central part of the county) and more inland portions of the Snowbelt. The thermodynamic environment will remain very favorable and with good snow growth to go along with some pre-seeding from Lake Michigan, though the shoreline induced convergence will likely weaken some and there will be a brief period of sinking motion during the early to mid-afternoon behind the vort max. This should cause the band to become less organized and weaken a bit, though it probably won’t completely go away. Ice cover over the western basin is over 80% which will limit moisture flux some, however, the ice is still not that thick and still has some cracks, which typically still allows a half decent moisture flux. Given the strong instability and high EL heights, I think that while the ice will somewhat limit the band intensity over Lorain and Cuyahoga Counties where the fetch of open water is much diminished that it won’t completely prohibit some decently intense snow. Another potent vort max and surface trough (with much colder air behind it) approaches late afternoon and early evening and passes around mid-evening Saturday. These features tend to back surface winds a bit more than modelled, which suggests winds may be around 280 degrees as this vort max and trough approach. The lift and moisture ahead of the vort max and likely upstream moisture from Lake Michigan, along with increasing convergence near the shoreline should allow a decent band to re-develop. This band will likely develop across northern Lorain County and northern/central Cuyahoga County east into southern Lake County and Geauga County and swing south by mid-evening behind the vort max as winds then quickly go more NNW. Though there may not be an organized convergence band over NW PA, Lake Huron moisture and increased lift should still result in a nice burst of snow. Instability will be extreme by this point with ample moisture/good snow growth remaining in place, so the band could produce a quick few inches over parts of the Cleveland metro and into the Snowbelt, likely a bit inland form the lake, as well as in parts of NW PA especially in the higher terrain. A brief period of good moisture behind the winds turning to the NNW may briefly allow upslope snow to continue through late evening, though colder air will start hurting snow growth. Given the stronger vort max/surface trough passage and cold push of air, the snow band could detatch from the lake and push inland as a strong snow squall that drops a quick 1-2” of snow. Lake Michigan moisture may contribute to a risk of squalls well west of the NE Ohio Snowbelt as well Saturday evening as the trough moves through. Behind the trough the thermodynamics remain impressive with EL heights over 10-11k feet and extreme instability over the lake, but the airmass dries considerably for the remainder of Saturday night and through Sunday night. This will likely limit snow outside of a Lake Huron connection. With well-aligned winds, extreme instability, and this connection going over the open part of our lake, it may produce heavy snow. NAM soundings show the DGZ remaining in the clouds in the Huron connection through Sunday supporting high ratios. Models tend to bring these connections too far west, but with a NNW flow think it should get into at least Asthabula County for a decent period of time Saturday night through much of Sunday and may briefly drift into Geauga/Lake Counties late Saturday night when winds have their strongest northerly component. Winds back Sunday night which should push the connection east. Given the winds don’t move a ton, are well aligned, and instability is extreme, this Huron connection may drop a general 3-6” over far eastern Lake/Geauga, Asthabula, and western Erie/Crawford Counties, with locally much higher amounts possible if the band stalls for any decent length of time. With extreme instability and wind fields getting a bit light late Saturday night into Sunday, meso-low formation may be possible with the band which could move it around at times and also bring locally enhanced snow rates. Outside of the Huron connection, a short fetch, limited moisture hurting snow growth, but extreme instability and fairly light/well-aligned winds may allow modest snow showers to continue in the higher terrain as far west as the secondary Snowbelt. This may add a local inch or two after midnight Saturday night through Sunday in the higher terrain west of the Lake Huron connection. For total amounts, think there’s ample opportunity for snow for 12”+ along the lakeshore in northeast Ashtabula County and Erie County, PA. Given a couple shots at banding, local amounts of 18-24” seem doable in Erie County within 10 miles of the lake. Elsewhere, expect the rest of the core Snowbelt (parts of the eastern suburbs, inland Lake, northern Geauga, inland Ashtabula, inland Erie and northern Crawford) to see a general 6-12” of snow given banding likely getting in off and on Saturday mid-morning through evening, with some light upslope enhanced snow then continuing through Sunday. Wherever the Huron band sets up, the potential for over a foot will exist. Farther west/south, given 1-2” of clipper snow, potential squalls enhanced by moisture from Lake Michigan and the vort maxes, and likely a squall pushing south off of Lake Erie Saturday evening, think most areas can see over 4”…so will go 4-7” for much of the Cleveland and Akron metro down to Youngstown. Given how unstable the airmass is before adding in the lakes, good snow ratios, sources of synoptic lift, and then moisture from the lakes, I have to think it’ll be a snowy Saturday and Saturday evening at times in these areas. The moisture from Lake Michigan may also get wrung out in the central highlands at times adding some modest additional accums there on top of 1-3” of clipper snow.

It looks like two little shots of synoptic snow over the next 48 hours...an inch or less tonight and perhaps an inch or two Friday night. As for the lake effect it'll be a decent but not outstanding W to WSW flow setup through Saturday morning favoring the lakeshore. The watch for over a foot in northern Erie County is reasonable, I don't think it'll get into southern Erie County much. By Saturday afternoon through Sunday winds turn to NW and then NNE. Moisture is diminishing by then and winds will be shifting, so think it'll be a minor LES event for those of us farther SW and inland. Depending on how the Lake Huron band behaves maybe someone gets a few inches, but most will get another light token amount. There may be more WNW to NNW flow after midweek which could support more LES. We will have to see what the ice looks like. Have to think the western basin will be getting pretty thick by then and not have a strong heat/moisture flux, but the central basin may still have some juice. What we need is one week of a lot of warmth, rain, and SW wind to force that ice lose! Unfortunately that isn't coming for at least 2 weeks.

2.1" of LES last night for a total of 3.5" of LES

I'm thinking many areas will get into the forecast ranges from yesterday. Not really exciting though but getting there. Was a general 1-5" through this morning from the east side into Geauga County, and the bands been moderate this afternoon into NE Cuyahoga, southern Lake, and northern/west-central Geauga and likely has added 1-3" in those areas. Another vort max passes through early to mid evening which should result in a minor uptick and also send the snow farther south. With light winds over the lake going NNW tonight expect convergence to focus at least snow showers within 10-15 miles of the lake most of the night from Lorain County points east, with potentially moderate snow from a Lake Huron connection into Erie or Ashtabula Counties. With light winds and very cold air on land still think there's some risk for a meso-low perhaps over the central basin that could graze the coast with heavier snow. All in all a real slow burn but much of the east side points east will end up with at least a few inches from last night through tomorrow morning, with locally probably upwards of 10" in northern Geauga County where they had 4-5" through this morning and are under decent snow now.

The 0z models last night hinted at this happening with the winds going more NW this evening. So we may continue to see a semi-coherent band through the afternoon, shouldn't lift too much farther north. Somehow Chardon got 5" last night, some spots may see a few more inches through tonight as light snow may continue within 10-15 miles of the lake much of the night. It was snowing half decently here all morning but with poor flake size and I got another half inch give or take. I may hit 2-3" and can see spots just a bit north of me seeing a 5 or 6" total considering Shaker already has 2" and should continue to see more snow for quite a while.

I'm not sure what we have to do for an event to not completely fall apart. The band was reasonably intense as it approached the downtown lakeshore then broke up/weakened quickly. I suppose the good news is it should snow very lightly most of the day. Around an inch here.

This is a pretty interesting/tough forecast for the remainder of this LES event through Wednesday night... Indications are the band (which the heart of is actually north of Erie at the moment) will reach its farther north point by 7-8pm, and then begin sinking back south as a weak surface trough evident over SE MI pushes east this evening and causes winds over the lake to shift from SW to more west. This should allow convergence to increase from near Euclid up the shoreline and allow decent snow to develop up the shoreline in NE Ohio by mid to late evening. As winds on the lake continue to gradually veer to more WNW after midnight, the snow will likely push inland into more of NE Cuyahoga and northern Geauga County. Given WNW to almost NW winds over the lake I have to imagine it will push inland over Erie County as well. The band will likely stall or really slow down for several hours after midnight or 1am, especially across the eastern Cleveland metro. This is due to the winds on the lake not moving much, possibly in response to the mid-level shortwave approaching/moving overhead, and due to the shape of the shoreline near Cleveland likely focusing shoreline convergence in that area for several hours. The hi-res models have a known bias (that has been on display constantly this event) to underdo shoreline convergence and push bands inland too quickly. Given where the models place the band, the expected wind direction, and shape of the shoreline, my guess is it will lay near the western lakeshore (perhaps nipping land at times very close to the lake west of Cleveland) and then move inland near or just slightly NE of downtown and then push ESE through the eastern suburbs towards Chesterland and South Russel. The NAM and RAP both have a crosshair signature for several hours late tonight (strong lift in the DGZ and decent RH in the upper half or so of the DGZ), which along with moderate lake-induced instability and EL heights of 9-10k feet suggests the band will produce heavy snow with rates of 1-2" per hour. Given it may move little for several hours, the potential for several inches of snow exists in the eastern suburbs into northwestern or west-central Geauga County. With some large scale lift from the shortwave passage think the higher terrain in the rest of the northern Snowbelt will hang on to snow showers in this time, but nothing too organized or heavy. If this band pans out could see some spots get near 8" by morning under the band in the eastern suburbs. The shortwave finally passes Wednesday morning, resulting in some sinking motion and winds veering even more to NW over the lake. As temps on land warm the lake-aggregate trough and shoreline convergence should weaken, causing the band to swing southwest and become less organized. The band will likely lose its lake Michigan connection Wednesday afternoon. Even so, moderate to borderline extreme instability may result in snow showers continuing from Lorain County points east, likely heaviest a bit inland given no dominant band or shoreline convergence. These may result in additional light accumulations late Wednesday morning through the afternoon. The combination of a cold and somewhat drier airmass may limit snow growth late Wednesday morning and beyond, possibly limiting ratios with any snow showers that persist, so I suspect amounts after about 10am Wednesday through the rest of the day will be reasonably under control. I still don't trust Wednesday night not to produce some additional accumulations. With winds going NW to even NNW a Lake Huron band may set up over NW PA and produce a couple inches or so. As temps drop on land convergence will increase along the rest of the shoreline. With winds going very light after midnight, some "tea kettle" snow may result with convergence near the shore just spilling inland, possibly dropping accumulating snow near the shore. This could occur as far west as Lorain County. The light winds and extreme temp differential between land and water may support meso-low formation too, which could also brush the shore with some accumulating snow. Any lingering snow should end Thursday morning. For additional accums, given the band gradually progressing south tonight think a general 4"+ is doable over most of the northern Snowbelt. I kept amounts at 4-8" over the eastern suburbs into western Geauga County, though I can't rule out a higher amount if the band after midnight into early Wednesday remains stationary enough. A few mile bust in band location results in a lot of population seeing different amounts, so that's a sensitive forecast which also factored into my decision not to pin down a 6-12" area. Think the period of snow along the shore tonight along with the potential for tea kettle lake effect Wednesday night supports 4"+ additional snow even along the coast. With the band currently affecting extreme NE Ashtabula County and coastal Erie County, along with a potential for a Huron connection early tomorrow night and tea kettle snow after midnight that 6-12" (locally more) is doable in those areas. The inland penetration of snow in NW PA is tough, but think once the band swings south later tonight with a quick accumulation that enough opportunities for snow showers (especially if some Huron moisture is involved) exists for at least a few to several inches of total additional accumulation in inland Erie County possibly clipping northern Crawford County.

It's a shame we don't have radar for Erie. This has been an incredible event for them. The winds on land are just perfectly parallel to the shore from Ashtabula to Erie, so though the winds over the lake have been moving a good bit over the last 30 hours the band just hasn't moved from the shore there. Perfect setup. It did finally push inland briefly earlier today but is back to pounding that area again. The obs are extremely impressive, with hours on end of quarter mile or lower visibility. I do agree that the earlier month snow totals don't seem right. Either the depth or snowfall is wrong. There are a few days where there's a seemingly impossible snow depth change compared to the amount of new snow recorded. I'm going to look over the LES for northern OH one more time here over the next little bit and see if I have any positive thoughts or not.

I do agree with your concerns about the band struggling to push inland. I do think it moves onshore over much of Cuyahoga County may but only affect the northern half of the county into northern Geauga. Most models push it farther south sooner or later but that is probably overdone. As for the ice I was just looking at GOES 16 and you can definitely see some has developed. Relatively thin ice still has a decent heat/moisture flux so I'm actually not that worried about it for the next day or so...you can see some clouds forming over the ice currently and feeding into the band...but it will become a bigger deterrent as it thickens and expands over the next week, which is unfortunate because we've gotten very little lake effect this season locally.

The band wasn't really expected to get too far south this morning (some models showed it but their bias is showing pretty nicely here). I hoped it would get to around route 6, it's a few miles north of that. Unfortunately, it still hasn't really detached from the lake in Erie County, and I'm sure there'll be huge totals near the shore in Ashtabula and Erie Counties. The winds will come around to 290 or so later tonight into Wednesday morning so the band will push south. The winds won't be that strong so the band will likely again try to hug the lakeshore more than the models show, but even so it should get into much more of Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties. The GFS has steady winds at around 295 for several hours which would possibly let the band sit for a while just north of 480/422, while the NAM brings them around to the NW quicker. Given the bias to push bands south so quickly the GFS solution may be better.

The winds over the lake along and north of the band are west right now, causing the band to line up how it is. On land, it's considerably colder (and that air is denser) and the winds are more WSW. So when the band hits the denser air along the shoreline in extreme NE Asthabula and Erie Counties and air blowing offshore, it tends to parallel the shore. For some reason models often under-do this effect and drive bands inland too quickly. Winds on the lake are expected to go more WNW later tonight through Tuesday morning, which will hopefully push the band inland. It's been very impressive in northern Erie County, and I can understand your frustration. I do think you'll have a couple opportunities for snow through Wednesday night, but sadly won't get the huge totals northern Erie County has seen. My monthly total is running at 13.8" right now. Have to imagine that's relatively close to normal for here.

Here's my first guess on the LES...I'm trying to sneak in a nap before the Cavs play so this write-up will be a little more curt than normal with no images. Winds will turn around to a more due westerly direction over the lake this evening behind a weak mid-level shortwave, which should allow convergence to move back south to northeastern Lake County and northern Ashtabula County and re-intensify over northern Erie County as we head into tonight. This is expected to allow the lake effect snow band to push back onto land near the lake in this area. Convergence will be strong near the shoreline with moderate lake-induced instability to go along with ample moisture below about 6-7k feet and EL heights of 8-10k feet (lower at CLE higher at ERI). BUFKIT shows lift focused in the DGZ along with high RH through most of the DGZ promoting high ratios, which along with the convergence and decent but not outstanding instability should allow for 1-2" per hour snow rates thanks to the ratios in the band. Some pre-seeding from Lake Michigan is also expected to develop tonight, which along with weakening winds maximizing residence time and a long fetch should allow the band to take full advantage of the fairly good parameters in place. The band may move little from this evening into the overnight, and may produce 6-10" of snow in a few or several hour period of time where it affects. The most likely area to see this will be extreme eastern Lake County, northern Ashtabula County, and the northern half or so of Erie County, PA. All models show the winds coming around to a solid WNW direction over the lake late tonight through Tuesday morning, which should push the convergence and band a little farther south. Winds inland will remain WSW, and a strong temperature difference between over water and inland should result in a strong lake-aggregate trough, which along with the WNW winds not being terribly strong argue against the band pushing very far inland. The hi-res models do try to push the band as far south as Downtown and NE Cuyahoga/central Geagua/southern Ashtabula County. Given the aforementioned factors and known bias for models to place LES bands a little too far south, my guess is we'll see the band get to extreme NE Cuyahoga County (Euclid/Mayfield area) but not quite to Downtown and then points east into Lake County and Geauga County mainly near and north of route 6. It may briefly get as far south as close to 322, but I'd hedge on heavier amounts being closer to 6. With a solid WNW push of winds, the band will probably push south of the Ashtabula County and Erie County lakeshore for several hours late tonight into Tuesday morning. Parameters remain similar to those described above, which should allow rates of 1-2" per hour to continue under the heart of the band. Winds may move slowly enough for a the band to be relatively stationary for a few hours, possibly allowing another 4-8" of snow to fall under the band late tonight through noon Tuesday. The area most likely to see this will be Lake County, northern Geauga County, Ashtabula County just inland from the lake, and perhaps far northeast Cuyahoga County. Tuesday afternoon the winds will back to the west/southwest over the lake ahead of a more robust shortwave, likely causing snow to lift north and potentially reorganize for a few hours over northeastern Ashtabula County into Erie County, possibly dropping another corridor of several inches of snow fairly quickly. Behind that wave Tuesday evening through Wednesday the winds will gradually veer and instability/moisture depth will improve. Winds inland will remain WSW and a strong temperature differential will remain between the lake and land, likely maintaining strong convergence near the shore. This will push the band back down the shore and gradually a bit farther inland Tuesday night into Wednesday. It may affect the northern Snowbelt (extreme NE Cuyahoga, Lake, northern Geauga, northern/central Ashtabula, parts of Erie County likely a bit inland) for a few hours later Tuesday evening as the winds on some models get hung up a bit ahead of another little 700mb vort max. EL heights of near or better than 10k feet (higher on the ERI soundings) and good moisture to 7k feet, a long fetch with relatively weak winds/little shear on soundings over the lake, moisture from Lake Michigan, along with a saturated DGZ and strong lift centered in the DGZ in the band on both the GFS and NAM suggest the band could produce very efficient and heavy snow, with rates of 2 to perhaps 4" per hour likely Tuesday evening. If it slows/stalls for a few hours over the northern Snowbelt, that corridor would see an additional 6"+ quickly and possibly up to a foot in short order. The band should resume its southward drift around midnight or so behind the vort max and should get into much more of Cuyahoga County. This will be an interesting setup for Cuyahoga County late Tuesday night through a good chunk of Wednesday. Models show winds of 285-295 degress with a clear trough axis near the county, with CLE BUFKIT soundings maintaining extreme instability, EL heights of near 10k feet, moisture in the lowest 5k feet at least (higher through mid-morning Wednesday), and lift centered in the DGZ. A Lake Michigan connection should maintain through most of Wednesday and winds will be fairly light/well aligned, maximizing residence time and it won't be a short fetch. There is enough juice for a warning criteria snowfall over much of northern/eastern Cuyahoga County including in or near Cleveland into central/southern Geauga County late Tuesday night and through Wednesday, with more disorganized snow showers focused mainly in the higher terrain in the rest of the Snowbelt during the day as the convergence should be well south by that point. This band could also affect far northeastern Lorain County at times. Still some time to evaluate the potential in Cuyahoga County, but a number of ingredients still appear to be in place. One potential negative will be temps getting cold enough Wednesday afternoon and low-level dew points dropping enough to start drying out the DGZ. This could cause snow ratios to diminish Wednesday afternoon, though right now indications are ratios should remain pretty high through Wednesday morning, especially in any organized bands where latent heat release would likely push the DGZ up into the clouds. The lake effect will really diminish Wednesday night, however, some additional accumulations aren't impossible. EL heights will remain 5-7k feet with some moisture beneath the inversion and steep lapse rates. Winds will be very light and veer onshore. The light winds and strong low-level instability may favor meso-low development or at least some "tea kettle" lake effect that grazes the shore. This could produce locally another couple inches or so Wednesday night mainly near the lake. For total accumulations, think there's more than enough opportunity for heavy snow to go with 1-2' in the northern Primary Snowbelt. The bands will be moving off and on which may limit the max potential in OH (and even in PA for additional snow starting this evening) to around 2 feet. Kept the southern cutoff a bit north of what many models have, however, if factors continue to point to a decent period of LES in Cuyahoga/southern Geauga Counties later Tuesday night into Wednesday night amounts will need to be bumped up in those areas. I fully think LES warnings will be needed for Lake and Geauga Counties. Cuyahoga County will eventually need at least an advisory, with potential for localized warning amounts late tonight into Tuesday morning in the extreme NE corner of the county as well as for more widespread warning amounts Tuesday through Wednesday evening.

Here's the QPF from the 12z NMM and ARW: