OHweather

Interesting stats! Obviously it has felt like the coldest start to winter in a number of years, but it's impressive that this prolonged snow cover is so rare for this early in the season. 2010-11 was quite a winter...

5.8" total here from the clipper + LES. The cold has done a number on western Lake Erie!

A little over 4" here so far (a bit over 2.5" from the clipper, about 1.5" from LES). Should see stuff fill in towards midday, good chunk of dry air moving overhead this morning.

The 12z RGEM would be pretty interesting for the western lakeshore and secondary snowbelt at times overnight tonight through Sunday! It also looks plenty snowy for the inland core snowbelt.

Pretty cool how there's literally no surface reflection with this clipper. All the snow is driven by mid-upper level jet dynamics and frontogenesis.

For verification purposes later, here was the snow map that fell out of my forecast this afternoon. If I were to say there are two areas I'm most concerned about, it's potential for a locally higher amount in the secondary snowbelt or western Cleveland metro area (i.e. western Cuyahoga or Lorain, Medina, Summit, Portage or Trumbull) if banding settles into those areas Saturday night or Sunday...and also potential for the eastern lakeshore to again come in lower than forecast if banding doesn't settle over that area late Saturday afternoon/evening.

I decided to give the trails at West Woods not too far from NEOH and DTA a visit yesterday afternoon. The amount of snow on the ground in that area was shocking compared to what I had in northern Summit (was down to about an inch of dense snowpack yesterday afternoon), and the gradient is really noticeable between Macedonia and even Twinsburg and Solon. Also, hiking around here is not fun right now lol, need some more snow to cover up the old/packed down ice and mud. Had a 2.1" measurement (which doubles as a storm total) around 8 AM this morning, another quick burst a little after 10 AM dropped a fluffy half inch or so. We'll see if I can get any more bonus snow from lake squalls through this evening down here. Looks like some lake enhanced snow Saturday into Saturday evening with a W or WNW flow as the clipper goes by, which could favor the northern half of the snowbelt. Winds go more NW into Sunday as the coldest air moves overhead which should favor the inland snowbelt yet again. The moisture is definitely best with the first phase of the event Saturday afternoon and evening. The instability increases into Sunday as brutally cold air aloft moves in (850mb temps of -20C or so), but I have some concerns about a shorter fetch by then, drier air at times, and lower snow ratios due to it becoming colder than ideal. I don't doubt that LES will continue through Sunday and into Sunday night across inland portions of the snowbelt, but you may need to get under an upstream connection to get better accumulations in that window.

Decent burst of snow this evening. Already a good inch here and still snowing. Roads are not good.

Was a good 2-3 degrees warmer than expected this morning. Wasn’t expecting a ton here, but was hoping for at least a little slushy accumulation which definitely did not occur.

Recent guidance still holding onto snow for several hours into the morning across much of NE Ohio. It will not be that cold and the lower elevations will probably have to deal with lower ratios/more melting and a bit more rain mixing in, but I think those of you over 1000 or so feet could easily get a quick few inches of snow. Tried to finagle a bit more snow in the forecast this afternoon, but couldn’t really get enough to expand the advisory into OH without throwing the forecast completely out of collaboration. That said, it would not surprise me if someone in Geauga ends up getting 4” or so through Wednesday morning, but it’ll likely be quite terrain dependent. Am becoming a little more intrigued by the LES potential in a WNW flow the second half of this weekend…will be curious how it looks as details become a little clearer in the coming days.

Definitely an active weather pattern with some dynamic systems moving through...lots of temperature swings and wind with frequent snow chances. I don't know if this pattern offers a great chance for a lot of snow at once, more nickels and dimes than anything else...perhaps lake effect Friday into the weekend can be somewhat heavier somewhere.

3.7" storm total for me, was snowing quite nicely this morning when I woke up with some bursts of lake effect at work during the afternoon. Definitely one of the better starts to the season in recent memory!

I don’t expect it to trend down. It’s not all WAA snow with a bunch of dry air in front of it like Saturday night was.

Snowy pattern! 6.8" was my LES total, though I never had more than 5" on the ground (the last 2" or so was very spread out) and it's been melting/compacting. Had 1.5" last night, with 1.3" falling with the leading band around 8:30 PM. Not much snow, but it dumped with that band and roads were trash for a couple of hours. A little LES for the snowbelt tonight (not expecting much for MBY), and then another light-moderate synoptic snow Monday night into early Tuesday. I don't expect that one to steadily trend down as we get closer like with what happened to last night's snow in most of OH.

Pretty impressed I got this much snow down here...was at a storm total of 5.2" when I measured earlier this morning. Have gotten at least another inch from squalls over the last hour! The HRRR is usually pretty bad with its placement of snow bands but I would say it performed best with this event. It was a few miles too far south (at one point it had me getting 18"), but did a really good job with showing the general area/evolution/organization of the banding that played out compared to the other models.

A little surprised at how quickly the band sagged south today. It was not slower than modeled, and I may actually get several inches tonight. Seems like the jackpot zone will be SE Cuyahoga into southern Geauga. Bit of a bust up the northeastern shoreline (not that they were ever going to do great, but thought they’d get a little more earlier today)

I don’t think that overall HRRR solution is too far off, but I would shift everything 10-15 miles ENE in terms of its placement. The RGEM and hi-res NAM are in decent enough agreement on band placement that I’d expect something close to those solutions.

Definitely looks like the main show will be well north of me...curse of being a Summit County resident I suppose...though, still a pretty interesting looking event overall and some hopes I get some scraps down this way on Friday. Already starting to see some loosely organized lake effect taking shape over the lake and heading into the Buffalo/Niagara Falls area. The band should start pushing onshore from eastern Lake/northern Ashtabula Counties into northern Erie County PA overnight tonight. Winds lock in for several hours during the day Thursday...winds over the northern half of the lake will turn more WNW'rly, but winds closer to the south shore and on land over OH will remain more WSW or even SW through the day. So, I suspect we'll see a band that gets into a good portion of Lake County and probably far northern Geauga Thursday morning...extending east across northern/central Ashtabula, most of Erie County and perhaps extreme northern Crawford County in PA...but probably struggling to push much farther than that for most of Thursday. Through tonight, very strong boundary layer flow of 40-50kt over the lake, somewhat conditional instability, and the instability lift largely staying focused below the DGZ, all argue for snow rates remaining fairly under control. Conditions gradually improve through the day Thursday as the cold air deepens a bit and as the boundary layer flow over the lake weakens slightly, so we'll likely start seeing some 1" per hour rates within the heart of the band during the day Thursday. A pretty good shortwave crosses late Thursday afternoon/early evening, bringing winds around just a bit more and allowing for deeper cold air and moisture, with some Lake Michigan connection, to spread in. So, expect the band to push a bit farther south Thursday evening and really start to rip, quite possibly to the tune of 1-2" per hour. Soundings are most favorable Thursday night overall with equilibrium levels pushing to as high as 15k feet and deep moisture, to go along with decent lift and instability through the DGZ. The band probably will push into northern/eastern Cuyahoga, northern/central Geauga, much of Ashtabula, southern Erie and more of Crawford PA the first half of Thursday night. Another subtle trough crosses after midnight Thursday night, bringing a better push of WNW winds pre-dawn Friday. At that point, we should see activity expand into at least central/eastern Cuyahoga, southern Geauga/northern Portage, and northern/central Trumbull, though with the shorter fetch we may see the dominant band break up into upslope snow showers and weaker multi bands, with perhaps some lingering organization focused near Cuyahoga County. Activity may lull, or at least be fairly disorganized, for several hours during the day Friday. Winds begin backing late Friday into Friday night and there are decent signs of a last gasp type W-E band developing across Cuyahoga and into Geauga County Friday evening, and perhaps lasting a few or several hours before weakening/shifting farther NE late Friday night. I'll post a very rough map without real numbers on it (just wanted to draw something quick)...I do think the heaviest accums focus slightly inland given the very strong flow over the lake for most of the event, even if banding hangs up near the lakeshore for most of Thursday. I think eastern Cuyahoga into northern/central Geauga is a very good spot, as they'll probably get a lot of snow between late Thursday and early Friday with a little more Friday evening/night. It will be quite windy through Thursday with near blizzard conditions wherever the band is...winds gradually ease Thursday night into Friday but remain gusty enough for some blowing/drifting. I'll finally get a crack at the official forecast/AFD during the day tomorrow. The headlines currently out are reasonable, and our afternoon update today lowered things noticeably along the lakeshore and fine tuned peak amounts a bit and I don't think it's unreasonable at all. I may have the "fun" of deciding if Summit needs an advisory or if Trumbull needs a warning tomorrow, assuming neither upgrade is made on tonight's midnight shift.

Models have trended towards swinging the winds around to the WNW a bit quicker over the last day or so…suspect the lake effect will struggle to push south of Lake County and far northern Geauga until late Thursday, but then there’s a pretty prolonged and decent WNW flow setup Thursday evening through most of Friday. Should be a solid setup for eastern Cuyahoga into Geauga and through the rest of the inland snowbelt. I could see the lakeshore struggling given the very strong winds over the water and fairly quick wind shift to WNW, but there may be a smaller area where banding sits on Thursday along the lakeshore (possibly in Lake or Ashtabula Counties) that does quite well.

Have gotten 2" so far, with 1.7" of that last night into this morning. This event has been pretty whelming if not on the underwhelming side. A few spots did ok, it looks like Geauga County did decently this evening. However, the carpet bomb winter storm watch for 5-10" did not work out.

Some pretty impressive ascent from the vort max and meso low!

Yeah it seems like they're alluding to it in their AFD as well. It may be hard to know exactly which way it'll go until the mesolow pushes farther inland/weakens a bit over the next few hours, as that's when the band will be more free to whip west, which it will still want to do based on radar trends farther up the lake. However, the shorter the window for that to happen the better for getting the band to stay more coherent.

Some light accums have taken place in northern Summit over the last couple hours. On the board!

I don't think the band taking slightly longer to swing west is a bad thing for the immediate lakeshore/Chicago area (and probably ups the odds at someone getting a higher-end total)...some earlier model depictions had it swinging west and breaking into weaker multi-bands pretty quickly (before congealing as it swings back east on Monday). This slower west push right now may allow for a more focused band that lasts longer close to the lake later tonight.

Well, it turns out the AI models were on to something with that southerly low track. Saw that Toledo got a nice little thump of moderate to heavy snow with accumulation this morning. As for the LES, this remains a tricky forecast with the amount of instability providing for potential upside, but a lack of band persistence/organization evident on models is a potential significant limiting factor. Starting tonight, (mainly light) synoptic precip with some northerly flow lake/upslope enhancement this evening will give way to more classic lake effect precip after midnight. Conditions will become quite conducive to lake effect by early Monday, with lake-induced equilibrium levels climbing over 10k feet overnight and BUFKIT displaying "extreme" instability by sunrise, with lake to 850mb temp differentials of over 20C and lake to 700mb diffs of around 30C. Lingering synoptic moisture should be fairly abundant in the lowest 10-15k feet much of the night. We should see rain mix with and gradually change to snow this evening in the Cleveland area with the higher terrain going first. It will get cold enough for accumulations by late evening or the overnight under any organized bands, especially inland. There are suggestions of a potential Lake Huron connection setting up well west of Cleveland tonight...with some enhancement near Cleveland into the Medina/Lorain County area also hinted at most of tonight. Farther east, there could be some less organized lake effect/upslope precip overnight into early Monday. I think most of the area will see a light accumulation tonight, though near the lake may not see any stick outside of any localized heavier bands. Snow rates within bands could top an inch an hour overnight but bands may be moving a bit too much...however, a slower moving band would be the opportunity for locally a few inches tonight into early Monday. Winds will shift from N to NW through the day Monday, with a patch of subsidence and drier air working through during part of the day. Lake Huron enhancement will swing east across the Cleveland area and into the Snowbelt on Monday. It will still be quite unstable on Monday so this band may still be heavy at times, but activity outside of any Lake Huron connection could be pretty limited on Monday and accumulations will be harder to come by during the day outside of bands. So, I could see some localized amounts of up to a couple inches during the day Monday, mainly with any activity enhancement by Lake Huron. The most ideal window looks like Monday night into early Tuesday. The core of the closed low/cold core aloft will move right over Lake Erie Monday evening, with NW winds gradually shifting more W Monday night. Conditions will be very conducive to intense LES the first half or so of Monday night...they gradually decline later Monday night into Tuesday, though heavy snow in bands should be supported into early Tuesday at least. The main target Monday night will be the Lake Huron connection, which may settle into NW PA for a good chunk of the night. However, a couple of other bands will likely play out across the Snowbelt and Cleveland metro. Bands may again move just enough Monday night to keep amounts somewhat under control, though could see additional 6-10" amounts in PA if the Lake Huron connection is stable enough, with locally several more inches across parts of NE Ohio under more organized bands.