OHweather

The lake enhanced flare up this evening looks a little better than I thought. Good moisture and instability to nearly 10k feet with WNW winds for several hours this evening, and some synoptic snow on radar moving across the lake. Could be a good 2-4” across much of the snowbelt (a bit less right along the lake) tonight from eastern Cuyahoga east. Am expecting a good burst of light to moderate snow Thursday afternoon and evening with bursts of heavier snow downwind of the lake into the Cleveland area points east. Light to moderate lake enhanced snow should continue into early Friday with lighter and less organized lake effect lingering Friday during the day and evening. Will re-evaluate a bit when I’m back home but my FB map this morning had 7-13” in the higher terrain from parts of Cuyahoga points east for a total from both shots of snow. At the moment I still like that general range but may tweak a bit. This may need a Winter Storm Warning for much of the Snowbelt for Thursday PM-Friday AM with a good burst of higher ratio snow that should pile up a good amount.

I'm glad someone saw a good snow this morning...a big 0.0" here (it may have snowed, but no sign of any when I woke up). Still am pretty interested in Thursday afternoon-Friday morning here, especially in NE OH for a good amount of snow. There will probably be a flareup of LES this evening with a WNW wind that will produce some minor accumulations as well.

I did see some wet flakes this morning, not a prayer of accumulating though. Too light/warm/brief. Tonight into tomorrow morning is still interesting with some potential for convective snow showers, though some models are hinting the Cleveland area may be in a bit of a hole. I didn't/still don't expect much out of tonight locally, but it wouldn't shock me if a few spots in northern Ohio "cash in" with a quick 1-3" snow through early Wednesday...but pretty hard to guess where. There are hints that extreme NE OH and perhaps parts of NW OH may be favored. The lake effect tomorrow night looks weak, but with a W or slightly north of due west flow parts of the primary snowbelt may see 1-3" additional tomorrow evening through Thursday morning. The potential for later Thursday through Friday remains interesting, with the upper low moving right overhead bringing a shot of synoptic snow possibly enhanced by the lake. Some of the global models have had decent QPF with this feature, and the potential for several inches may exist in the higher terrain...we'll have to see where the best synoptic snow goes though, some models do keep it a little southwest of Cleveland with lighter amounts for us.

A number of snow chances through Friday with a slow-moving upper-level low drifting across the region...we'll see if any of them can put down some decent accumulations anywhere. First shot is Tuesday morning with the occluded front. This looks to be fizzling as it comes in. Classic "dusting at best" scenario. Second shot is Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a lobe of the upper low approaches, takes on a negative tilt, and sparks a surface low either overhead or just to our north. With very cold 500mb temps of -35C with the upper low, lapse rates will be steep and there will be some instability. If the lift from the developing surface low and approaching upper low can spark some precip, as many models show, it may be a bit convective in nature and drop some locally moderate amounts. Low-levels appear marginal for snow, but with plenty cold air aloft, favorable time of day, and potential for convective precip, have to think if any decent precip develops it would fall as mostly snow. At the moment most areas will probably just see a light accumulation at best in this period, but the potential for some locally heavier convective snow will have to be watched and could produce some locally heavier amounts somewhere in northern Ohio. Third shot is some potential lake enhanced snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning as we stay in a cyclonic flow on the backside of the intensifying Nor'easter as colder air works in. This looks like a W to WNW flow event. The 0z NAM was pretty robust with this, but the other 0z models are drier. Even so, it's mainly lake-driven so something to watch as we get closer. And finally, another potent lobe of the upper-level low looks to move overhead Thursday night into Friday, increasing lift and bringing in somewhat colder air. This increased moisture/lift with the upper low and what looks to be a W to NW flow could cause decent accumulations in parts of the snowbelt if all goes well. Then probably a break over the weekend as that system currently is progged to go south of us, but potentially some more lake effect potential next week as some decent cold for mid-March looks to move in.

That’s a big lobe of cold behind the storm too! Would be pretty impressive for mid March.

That's definitely possible. Some 36F waters showing up near the coast out west, and even if that added just a degree or two to the temps that may have made the difference. It looks like two more time periods to watch coming up with relatively deep/slow moving troughs across the east...Wednesday-Friday of this upcoming week and then around the 12th-13th. Maybe some sort of lake effect potential along with non-zero synoptic snow potential. A lot of ensemble members are uninteresting with only light amounts of snow, but enough have something more substantial with each period that it's worth keeping an eye on.

A little post-mortem looking at the reports that came in... Definitely a typical late-season synoptic storm with some elevation dependence, a need for strong rates to accumulate well, and a very wet snow. The unusually strong low and associated winds made it an impressive site with decent snow falling and blowing good for several hours...too bad this couldn't happen during the day. The number of power outages (peaked at a bit over 100,000) was reasonably impressive, though certainly a far cry from bigger power outage events we've had like Sandy. Roads were quite slick with a very dense, slushy snow last night, which made travel hazardous along with the scattered tree/power issues. It was definitely an event worthy of a Winter Storm Warning both by amounts and impact. I noticed here that in areas that were somewhat sheltered from the wind (either by terrain or buildings) there was a good couple inches of snow plastered to the trees, while areas more exposed had little or no snow on the trees...on one hand sort of cool, on the other would've been nice to see everything covered in snow. As for the forecast and verification, this one sort of snuck up as it got closer. The Euro in particular hinted at some snow several days out, while the GFS and CMC had the storm but were a little too warm for snow. It became obvious early in the week that decent accums were at least remotely possible, but the last-second shift south and stronger really improved the odds of that occurring Wednesday and into yesterday on the models. As for the final forecast, most of the higher terrain did see 6-10" in NE OH (including the secondary snowbelt), with a couple of 10-12" reports in Geauga and Ashtabula. In general it was solid, but two areas that didn't do well were along the lakeshore from about Mentor west seeing less than expected and also southern Summit, southern Portage, and southern Trumbull Counties seeing more snow than expected. As for the lakeshore, that's a perplexing issue that is hard to forecast. I figured there'd be less there than inland, but also thought that with there being a lot of QPF from the synoptic snow along the lake that there'd at least be a few inches. Temps did run about 2F warmer than modeled, which along with the strong wind off the water blowing some of the snow away likely made it hard to accumulate well on the lakeshore. So, a bit disappointing in those areas. As for farther inland, I'm guessing a little less wind and probably a slightly higher ratio snow falling allowed decent amounts to occur pretty far south despite gradually diminishing liquid equivalent. I thought the forecast was solid but still could've been better. Every local station except for channel 5 was only calling for 1-3" in the snowbelt yesterday morning, which was a bad miss. The NWS was a little slow, though they did have 3-6" for the snowbelt yesterday morning before going up several more inches (and in turn being too high in most areas) with their afternoon package. Overall, I won't complain if we get another one or two types of these storms this spring...probably won't but who knows, the pattern doesn't look warm/dry anytime soon.

Looks like 3.0” at CLE

It was too warm near the lake. Sat at 33-34. There have been a couple of marginal events where surface temps have been warmer than modeled. An inch in Huron is ouch. Definitely thought there’d be more based on the radar there, and saw a report on Twitter of 5” in Collins (which is much farther inland). If I’ve learned anything from reading posts from you guys on the lake it’s that I’m never going to get a place right near a body of water if I can help it.

Got about 6” here, actually some drifting. Really low ratio. It was an impressive evening and overnight with prolonged moderate to briefly heavy snow and a lot of wind. Would’ve been a blizzard if it wasn’t like a 7:1 ratio.

Changed to snow about 20 minutes ago here after a brief period of sleet. It is beginning to accumulate. Some streets adjacent to my complex have lost power...luckily mine is still on. Everything seems on track, though how efficiently the snow accumulates will strongly influence where the totals end up at (ie higher end vs low end).

I think as the band of heavier precip pivots in it’ll change pretty quickly (maybe a brief period of sleet)...but it probably won’t be until 7-9PM in the Cleveland metro and east side.

I’d be surprised if NW PA doesn’t do well with this storm. Any other observers near ERI airport than can confirm or deny the December snowfall? It seemed suspiciously high at the time, though they did get hit well with a few events so I’m sure the city and lakeshore at least were “well above average” even if not as truly record breaking as reported.

I bumped up to 6-10" in the higher terrain this morning. Pretty good agreement that the low will come in on the upper-end of projections intensity wise and track from just south of Mansfield to near/just south of Youngstown. This stronger low will also move slower to our east tonight and hold on a little longer before transfering to the East Coast. Good agreement on the southern edge of a band of moderate to heavy snow driven by low to mid-level frontogenesis rotating across north-central and NE Ohio this evening bringing a 2-3 hour period of moderate to heavy snow with rates of 1-2" per hour possible in the northernmost counties. After that, mid-level deformation and deep moisture lingers well past midnight in the Cleveland area and into the morning near and east of the PA boarder, keeping light to moderate snow going for several hours after the initial burst. In the higher terrain downwind of the lake, as 850mb temps cool to -7 to -10C after midnight some terrain/lake enhancement should keep a somewhat heavier snow going in the higher terrain. Ratios while starting out less than 10:1 this evening should climb a bit after midnight...thinking event average ratios of a little under 10:1 in the high terrain where the enhanced snow later tonight into tomorrow will be a little higher ratio and maybe 7-8:1 near the lake...in NW OH where it will snow today with temps above freezing they may see 5:1 ratios making accums out west really uncertain. Given a long window of moderate to heavy snow, especially in the higher terrain, and copious QPF on the hi-res guidance that will pick up on terrain enhancement better, think 6-10" in the high terrain is likely as far west as Cuyahoga County. In Cleveland, I do expect amounts to be a bit less near the lake, though a little farther northeast more substantial synoptic snow should allow for more snow right along the lake as well. Local amounts of over a foot seem likely in the higher terrain of inland Erie County, PA where there will be a better shot of synoptic snow and more prolonged deformation/orographic lift snow into Friday morning. Given winds gusting 30-40MPH during the snow for a lot of tonight, perhaps better than 50MPH for a time near the lake and right behind the front this evening elsewhere, blowing snow/reduced visibility will be a significant issue. Near blizzard conditions are possible if it comes down hard enough to meet the visibility requirement (more questionable given the wet snow). Could also be some downed trees/powerlines with the initially wet snow and strong winds. Anyways, here's my map for the NE Ohio Snowbelt...would include a 8-14" area in inland Erie County, PA and 6-10" along the lake there.

I'm pretty close to 65" so far in Bedford Heights...probably only a smidge below normal for here through this point, I'm guessing the seasonal average is about 80-85" here. Given how it looks coming up, another 15-20" to hit normal may be tough to do, but it only takes one freak storm wrapping up just to our east in later March or April to give me a shot. There have not been any good true lake effect snow events that favor Cuyahoga County or the lakeshore near Cleveland this winter, so that has really hurt snow totals at CLE. We've (again) lacked big synoptic snows. Contrast that to farther up the lake, where a number of events hugged the shore and gave Erie a record snowy winter. There have been 3 NW to NNW lake enhanced events that my area has done well on, and probably accounts for at least 15" more snow here than the airport just in those few events. The system tomorrow night into Friday doesn't look outstanding, but should produce some accumulating snow. The trend for the last few runs has been a bit slower with the phase, which allows for a slightly farther south track and quicker change to snow in far northern Ohio. The best synoptic snow still looks to be just to our north into western NY (and perhaps extreme northern PA), but I think a couple inches of synoptic snow area-wide in the Cleveland metro is reasonable. With the 500mb low closing off to our east and keeping us in a moist NNW flow through the rest of the night, and 850mb to lake temp differentials of 9-10C, I do expect some lake/terrain enhancement to allow for an extended period of moderate snow in the higher terrain from southern Cuyahoga/northern Medina County points east that lingers until around sunrise Friday before ending pretty quickly during the early to mid-morning. This isn't a good setup for the lakeshore so I only think 2" give or take a little bit for there, but do think our higher terrain sees 3-6" with 4-8" in PA. Given the wind that will accompany the snow and the very wet nature, potential for some tree damage will be there if anyone can see several inches. Erie County PA may eventually need a WSW from CLE for this. It's a give and take because the somewhat slower phase may increase the potential for a quick couple inches of wet synoptic snow along the lake, but also causes the storm to move east a little bit quicker, diminishing the lake enhancement window in the higher terrain. At the moment I think there's still decent enough agreement in the higher terrain focused snow lasting for several hours, and rates right after the change to snow may push 1"/hour for a time, so I think 3-6" is a reasonable call...but there's a little bust potential either way. Over the last couple winters or so the terrain/lake enhanced snow on the backside of closing off 500mb lows to our east is the one "storm type" I've consistently been too low on, so I don't mind being near the higher end of guidance for that aspect, but am not too enthused in the lower terrain and also expect amounts to quickly drop off farther south to maybe an inch by the time you hit route 30.

Literally the exact opposite of how I thought the second half of the month would play out. Could be some wet accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday on the backside of that storm.

If there's some sort of "consensus" forming it's that sleet very well may be involved for us. Given the 1040mb high perfectly positioned just to our north forcing cold/dry low-level air in I'm leaning towards the colder models such as the 3km NAM and ARW for their surface temps, but there will be a strong warm-layer aloft trying to advect in. Many models support snow (barely) right along the lakeshore in Cuyahoga County and are more of a sleet/snow mix (probably more sleet) for the rest of Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties and rain/freezing rain south of that. My guess is the warmer layer aloft will make it harder to see all snow, but if it comes down hard it may dynamically cool it just enough that locations along the lake could see a quick 2-4" type snow. There is potential for a corridor of like 1" of sleet if the higher QPF verifies and it is mainly sleet as the models are trying to suggest. Some models are running warmer with their surface temps and don't have as much of a freezing rain threat, though given the favorable high positioning to our north and quick shot of decent precip, that's a very fine line and I could see a narrow corridor still seeing a relatively substantial amount of freezing rain. Of course, the Euro came down a good bit in its QPF on the 12z run. The shorter range models are locked in on a more amped solution so we'll see if that's correct. I'm more worried about a lack of precip than seeing temps cold enough for something wintry.

Messy forecast. I think the Cleveland area will get a decent hit of qpf (not as much as the NAM has) with all four p-types occurring with temps between 30-34 through the event. May not be a ton of any one precip type but could create a nice slushy on the roads for the morning rush.

Looks like some areas did see 1-3" of lake effect fluff last night into this morning...best was north of me and I saw 0.5". At a minimum, a quick hitting 1-3" of snow again during the commute looks likely tomorrow. A lot of model disagreement still...the warm surge always does well in winter so my guess is this whiffs us to the north, perhaps still hitting Toledo and Erie, but some models still suggest otherwise so I suppose more snow can't be ruled out.

In the "it just wants to snow" category, had a little flare up of very high ratio lake effect here the last couple of hours that did deposit a few tenths. With a little shortwave going by tonight and some Lake Michigan moisture, suspect we'll see 1-3" of very fluffy lake effect in some areas tonight into Thursday morning in NE OH. The remaining lake effect may shift across NW PA Thursday morning and early afternoon as the wind backs with a potential light accumulation. As for the overrunning event, it's looking more likely we see at least a 1-3" type snow in the Cleveland area late Thursday night/Friday morning. After that, it's a question of how far north the snow lifts Friday afternoon into Friday night. At the moment it still looks more likely to shift to our north at that point and shut off the snow while areas 50 miles to our north get good snow, but there has been some bump south in the models today and yes, we start getting partial sampling tonight and better sampling for tomorrow's 12z runs. I don't think we are in a great spot for a big snow, but it's still well within the margin of error at this point. The northernmost counties in NW OH, including Toledo, are in better position, and Erie County, PA may be far enough north as well.

3.4" here...mayyyy hit 4" if that band from the west holds together.

Yeah it looks to be a bit. Go figure, the precip is pulling away an hour or two faster than modeled though. There's that nice band near Toledo that the hi-res NAM brings through Cleveland around noon, so perhaps we add another half inch or inch on top of where we're at now. The airmass is unstable in the low levels and another shortwave goes by this evening. Even tho moisture flux is quite limited by the ice now, between the lift from the shortwave, unstable low levels, moisture from Lake Michigan and limited moisture from Lake Erie it wouldn't surprise me if we saw some minor lake effect tonight. It'll have a lot more fluff than this morning's snow so it could fluff out enough to accumulate a bit in some areas. There's that weird overrunning event late Thursday night-Friday night. Best looks to be to our west/northwest but some models tease maybe a 1-3" or so snow for the northernmost row or two of counties on Friday in OH. Also another potential system Sunday-Monday...not huge by perhaps another 1-4" synoptic snow potential as it looks. We are adding up the snow. I'll add up my spread sheets sooner or later but I'm coming up on 65" for the season I'd imagine. If late February and March don't suck 90" seems doable for me which I'd imagine is at least 10" above normal.

It's definitely been borderline ripping here. No complaints. Sharp cutoff, Westlake maybe got an inch judging by radar.

Yeah the screw hole has me worried as it will be somewhere near Cleveland. As it stands, a few hours of moderate, dense snow falling near rush hour could be a high impact 2-3" for us, but if that hole takes longer to fill in it could cut that in half. And I really don't have a gut feeling on whether it will or not.

It's a gap between lift from the northern stream shortwave and southern stream shortwave since they aren't really phased. It's definitely annoying if it verifies like that. Still possible the storm intensifies a bit quicker than modeled and fills it in faster.