OHweather

Got about 6” here, actually some drifting. Really low ratio. It was an impressive evening and overnight with prolonged moderate to briefly heavy snow and a lot of wind. Would’ve been a blizzard if it wasn’t like a 7:1 ratio.

Changed to snow about 20 minutes ago here after a brief period of sleet. It is beginning to accumulate. Some streets adjacent to my complex have lost power...luckily mine is still on. Everything seems on track, though how efficiently the snow accumulates will strongly influence where the totals end up at (ie higher end vs low end).

I think as the band of heavier precip pivots in it’ll change pretty quickly (maybe a brief period of sleet)...but it probably won’t be until 7-9PM in the Cleveland metro and east side.

I’d be surprised if NW PA doesn’t do well with this storm. Any other observers near ERI airport than can confirm or deny the December snowfall? It seemed suspiciously high at the time, though they did get hit well with a few events so I’m sure the city and lakeshore at least were “well above average” even if not as truly record breaking as reported.

I bumped up to 6-10" in the higher terrain this morning. Pretty good agreement that the low will come in on the upper-end of projections intensity wise and track from just south of Mansfield to near/just south of Youngstown. This stronger low will also move slower to our east tonight and hold on a little longer before transfering to the East Coast. Good agreement on the southern edge of a band of moderate to heavy snow driven by low to mid-level frontogenesis rotating across north-central and NE Ohio this evening bringing a 2-3 hour period of moderate to heavy snow with rates of 1-2" per hour possible in the northernmost counties. After that, mid-level deformation and deep moisture lingers well past midnight in the Cleveland area and into the morning near and east of the PA boarder, keeping light to moderate snow going for several hours after the initial burst. In the higher terrain downwind of the lake, as 850mb temps cool to -7 to -10C after midnight some terrain/lake enhancement should keep a somewhat heavier snow going in the higher terrain. Ratios while starting out less than 10:1 this evening should climb a bit after midnight...thinking event average ratios of a little under 10:1 in the high terrain where the enhanced snow later tonight into tomorrow will be a little higher ratio and maybe 7-8:1 near the lake...in NW OH where it will snow today with temps above freezing they may see 5:1 ratios making accums out west really uncertain. Given a long window of moderate to heavy snow, especially in the higher terrain, and copious QPF on the hi-res guidance that will pick up on terrain enhancement better, think 6-10" in the high terrain is likely as far west as Cuyahoga County. In Cleveland, I do expect amounts to be a bit less near the lake, though a little farther northeast more substantial synoptic snow should allow for more snow right along the lake as well. Local amounts of over a foot seem likely in the higher terrain of inland Erie County, PA where there will be a better shot of synoptic snow and more prolonged deformation/orographic lift snow into Friday morning. Given winds gusting 30-40MPH during the snow for a lot of tonight, perhaps better than 50MPH for a time near the lake and right behind the front this evening elsewhere, blowing snow/reduced visibility will be a significant issue. Near blizzard conditions are possible if it comes down hard enough to meet the visibility requirement (more questionable given the wet snow). Could also be some downed trees/powerlines with the initially wet snow and strong winds. Anyways, here's my map for the NE Ohio Snowbelt...would include a 8-14" area in inland Erie County, PA and 6-10" along the lake there.

I'm pretty close to 65" so far in Bedford Heights...probably only a smidge below normal for here through this point, I'm guessing the seasonal average is about 80-85" here. Given how it looks coming up, another 15-20" to hit normal may be tough to do, but it only takes one freak storm wrapping up just to our east in later March or April to give me a shot. There have not been any good true lake effect snow events that favor Cuyahoga County or the lakeshore near Cleveland this winter, so that has really hurt snow totals at CLE. We've (again) lacked big synoptic snows. Contrast that to farther up the lake, where a number of events hugged the shore and gave Erie a record snowy winter. There have been 3 NW to NNW lake enhanced events that my area has done well on, and probably accounts for at least 15" more snow here than the airport just in those few events. The system tomorrow night into Friday doesn't look outstanding, but should produce some accumulating snow. The trend for the last few runs has been a bit slower with the phase, which allows for a slightly farther south track and quicker change to snow in far northern Ohio. The best synoptic snow still looks to be just to our north into western NY (and perhaps extreme northern PA), but I think a couple inches of synoptic snow area-wide in the Cleveland metro is reasonable. With the 500mb low closing off to our east and keeping us in a moist NNW flow through the rest of the night, and 850mb to lake temp differentials of 9-10C, I do expect some lake/terrain enhancement to allow for an extended period of moderate snow in the higher terrain from southern Cuyahoga/northern Medina County points east that lingers until around sunrise Friday before ending pretty quickly during the early to mid-morning. This isn't a good setup for the lakeshore so I only think 2" give or take a little bit for there, but do think our higher terrain sees 3-6" with 4-8" in PA. Given the wind that will accompany the snow and the very wet nature, potential for some tree damage will be there if anyone can see several inches. Erie County PA may eventually need a WSW from CLE for this. It's a give and take because the somewhat slower phase may increase the potential for a quick couple inches of wet synoptic snow along the lake, but also causes the storm to move east a little bit quicker, diminishing the lake enhancement window in the higher terrain. At the moment I think there's still decent enough agreement in the higher terrain focused snow lasting for several hours, and rates right after the change to snow may push 1"/hour for a time, so I think 3-6" is a reasonable call...but there's a little bust potential either way. Over the last couple winters or so the terrain/lake enhanced snow on the backside of closing off 500mb lows to our east is the one "storm type" I've consistently been too low on, so I don't mind being near the higher end of guidance for that aspect, but am not too enthused in the lower terrain and also expect amounts to quickly drop off farther south to maybe an inch by the time you hit route 30.

Literally the exact opposite of how I thought the second half of the month would play out. Could be some wet accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday on the backside of that storm.

If there's some sort of "consensus" forming it's that sleet very well may be involved for us. Given the 1040mb high perfectly positioned just to our north forcing cold/dry low-level air in I'm leaning towards the colder models such as the 3km NAM and ARW for their surface temps, but there will be a strong warm-layer aloft trying to advect in. Many models support snow (barely) right along the lakeshore in Cuyahoga County and are more of a sleet/snow mix (probably more sleet) for the rest of Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties and rain/freezing rain south of that. My guess is the warmer layer aloft will make it harder to see all snow, but if it comes down hard it may dynamically cool it just enough that locations along the lake could see a quick 2-4" type snow. There is potential for a corridor of like 1" of sleet if the higher QPF verifies and it is mainly sleet as the models are trying to suggest. Some models are running warmer with their surface temps and don't have as much of a freezing rain threat, though given the favorable high positioning to our north and quick shot of decent precip, that's a very fine line and I could see a narrow corridor still seeing a relatively substantial amount of freezing rain. Of course, the Euro came down a good bit in its QPF on the 12z run. The shorter range models are locked in on a more amped solution so we'll see if that's correct. I'm more worried about a lack of precip than seeing temps cold enough for something wintry.

Messy forecast. I think the Cleveland area will get a decent hit of qpf (not as much as the NAM has) with all four p-types occurring with temps between 30-34 through the event. May not be a ton of any one precip type but could create a nice slushy on the roads for the morning rush.

Looks like some areas did see 1-3" of lake effect fluff last night into this morning...best was north of me and I saw 0.5". At a minimum, a quick hitting 1-3" of snow again during the commute looks likely tomorrow. A lot of model disagreement still...the warm surge always does well in winter so my guess is this whiffs us to the north, perhaps still hitting Toledo and Erie, but some models still suggest otherwise so I suppose more snow can't be ruled out.

In the "it just wants to snow" category, had a little flare up of very high ratio lake effect here the last couple of hours that did deposit a few tenths. With a little shortwave going by tonight and some Lake Michigan moisture, suspect we'll see 1-3" of very fluffy lake effect in some areas tonight into Thursday morning in NE OH. The remaining lake effect may shift across NW PA Thursday morning and early afternoon as the wind backs with a potential light accumulation. As for the overrunning event, it's looking more likely we see at least a 1-3" type snow in the Cleveland area late Thursday night/Friday morning. After that, it's a question of how far north the snow lifts Friday afternoon into Friday night. At the moment it still looks more likely to shift to our north at that point and shut off the snow while areas 50 miles to our north get good snow, but there has been some bump south in the models today and yes, we start getting partial sampling tonight and better sampling for tomorrow's 12z runs. I don't think we are in a great spot for a big snow, but it's still well within the margin of error at this point. The northernmost counties in NW OH, including Toledo, are in better position, and Erie County, PA may be far enough north as well.

3.4" here...mayyyy hit 4" if that band from the west holds together.

Yeah it looks to be a bit. Go figure, the precip is pulling away an hour or two faster than modeled though. There's that nice band near Toledo that the hi-res NAM brings through Cleveland around noon, so perhaps we add another half inch or inch on top of where we're at now. The airmass is unstable in the low levels and another shortwave goes by this evening. Even tho moisture flux is quite limited by the ice now, between the lift from the shortwave, unstable low levels, moisture from Lake Michigan and limited moisture from Lake Erie it wouldn't surprise me if we saw some minor lake effect tonight. It'll have a lot more fluff than this morning's snow so it could fluff out enough to accumulate a bit in some areas. There's that weird overrunning event late Thursday night-Friday night. Best looks to be to our west/northwest but some models tease maybe a 1-3" or so snow for the northernmost row or two of counties on Friday in OH. Also another potential system Sunday-Monday...not huge by perhaps another 1-4" synoptic snow potential as it looks. We are adding up the snow. I'll add up my spread sheets sooner or later but I'm coming up on 65" for the season I'd imagine. If late February and March don't suck 90" seems doable for me which I'd imagine is at least 10" above normal.

It's definitely been borderline ripping here. No complaints. Sharp cutoff, Westlake maybe got an inch judging by radar.

Yeah the screw hole has me worried as it will be somewhere near Cleveland. As it stands, a few hours of moderate, dense snow falling near rush hour could be a high impact 2-3" for us, but if that hole takes longer to fill in it could cut that in half. And I really don't have a gut feeling on whether it will or not.

It's a gap between lift from the northern stream shortwave and southern stream shortwave since they aren't really phased. It's definitely annoying if it verifies like that. Still possible the storm intensifies a bit quicker than modeled and fills it in faster.

A little over 2" here last night, still some fluffy/light snow falling at times right now. And the hits keep on coming...

I was initially concerned the best banding may go a bit to our north, but looking like it may be right across the Cleveland area...it should slide ENE once it gets into Ohio. We will see if there's enough banding left to help ratios out...I think they'll be better than 10:1, but by how much is the question. Also thinking the potential is increased a bit for some decent snow showers/possibly squalls along the front during the pre-dawn hours...with some low-level instability showing up on the models and a nice accompanying vort max along the front. All in all, thinking we look good for 2-3" tonight...if there's still enough banding for moderate rates and higher ratios could see a bit more, but I'm on the fence about it. If we keep racking up these 2-3" snows it eventually adds up. Pretty good dynamics with the Wednesday storm, so if the shortwaves interact properly (and don't just shear out the southern stream wave) that could be a positive trender in the last minute. At the moment thinking 2-4" of a wetter snow for that one.

Perhaps I over measured a bit, but had 0.3" yesterday morning and 3.8" last night. Had a few hours of moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow. Should be a general 1-2" snow tonight, but a narrow band of moderate high-ratio snow may survive this far to the east and drop a narrow corridor (a county or two wide) of 3-4" of fluffy snow near Cleveland.

1.7" here. Had a nice band drop an inch in less than an hour a little after midnight but it looks like that was about it.

A bit more optimistic for the LES in NE OH tonight. Should be a relative burst for a few hours this evening into the overnight ahead of the shortwave with upstream moisture helping and good ratios. It looks like the Superior-Michigan connection may lock into the east side for a few hours then into the morning before weakening and drifting east into the afternoon. Ratios will lower late tonight into Friday due to the cold. Thinking given a nice high ratio burst ahead of the shortwave and an upstream connected band lingering into morning several inches could fall in the high terrain from eastern Cuyahoga County points east. Will go a general 2-5" higher terrain eastern Cuyahoga, southern Lake, much of Geauga, inland Ashtabula, perhaps grazing NE Summit and northern Portage, and interior Erie and northern Crawford County. It may be worth an advisory if a band lingers on the east side during rush hour. Think the best upstream connection stays in NE OH so will just go 2-5" interior NW PA. Also thinking 1-3" for the secondary Snowbelt down into Medina, Summit, Portage, Trumbull and northern Mahoning with a NW flow.

I'll update the above list after work with additional snow from yesterday...mainly in Ashtabula County. Ok LES setup tomorrow night into Friday. Well aligned NW flow with good thermodynamics for high ratio snows. EL heights up to 7-8k feet and decent moisture up to the inversion with lake to 850mb differentials of better than 20C. Short fetch and could be a deeper layer of instability so I doubt we see a huge snow, but given the possible fluff factor I could see some areas seeing a few inches in the higher terrain. A potential Superior-Michigan connection into the high terrain of NW PA may be enough for some areas to see 4-8" over the course of 24 hours...I'm thinking a 2-4" snow in NE OH in the higher terrain and less elsewhere through Friday...then a few synoptic threats Saturday through next week.

Here's my compilation of totals from the PNSs...not quite an exhaustive list but pretty close.. Ashtabula County: Jefferson: 11.5" Lenox: 11.0" Dorset 1 east: 10.3" Monroe Township: 9.0" Geneva 7 south: 7.0" Conneaut: 5.5" Andover: 5.5" Geneva: 5.0" North Kingsville: 3.5" Ashland County: Ashland: 1.0" Crawford County: Gallion: 2.0" Cuyahoga County: North Royalton: 8.3" Chagrin Falls: 8.0" Beachwood: 8.0" Bedford Heights: 7.1" Solon: 6.0" Strongsville 1 southeast: 6.0" Euclid: 4.0" Cleveland-West Park: 4.0" Westlake: 3.0" Erie County: Wakeman 4 north-northeast: 3.2" Berlin Heights: 2.6" Huron: 2.0" Castalia 1 northeast: 2.0" Geauga County: Chardon 2 north: 8.2" Chardon: 7.3" Montville: 6.5" Aquilla 3 east: 6.0" Madison 4 south-southeast: 6.0" South Madison: 5.0" Burton: 4.0" Hancock County: Findlay: 0.7" Huron County: New London 3 northwest: 4.3" Bellevue: 3.5" Knox County: Fredericktown 4 north-northwest: 1.0" Lake County: Kirtland 4 southwest: 5.1" Madison Village: 4.8" Madison-On-The-Lake: 4.5" Wickliffe 1 east-northeast: 3.8" Mentor: 3.7" Perry Township: 3.5" Lorain County: Oberlin 1 south: 6.0" Elyria: 3.6" Lorain 3 south: 3.4" Sheffield Lake: 2.0" Lucas County: Berkey 3 south: 2.1" Toledo Express Airport: 1.3" Mahoning County: Canfield: 3.5" Washingtonville 4 north-northwest: 3.0" Boardman: 2.0" Austintown: 1.0" Medina County: Hinckley: 6.5" Montrose-Ghent 4 west-northwest: 5.5" Homerville: 3.5" Brunswick: 3.1" Lodi: 1.8" Ottawa County: Elmore 5 east: 2.2" Port Clinton 2 west: 1.7" Portage County: Mantua: 5.5" Sugar Bush Knolls: 4.2" Hiram: 3.5" Kent: 3.2" Ravenna: 3.0" Richland County: Lexington: 1.5" Mansfield 7 northeast: 1.0" Mansfield: 1.0" Stark County: Alliance: 2.0" Jackson Twp: 1.8" East Canton 1.5" Waynesburg: 1.3" Magnolia: 1.2" Summit County: Sagamore Hills: 9.8" Macedonia 3 south-southwest: 6.6" Bath Twp: 3.9" Twinsburg: 3.9" Cuyahoga Falls 1 east-southeast: 3.8" Fairlawn: 3.6" Cuyahoga Falls: 3.5" Akron-West Side: 3.4" Monroe Falls: 3.4" Tallmadge: 2.7" Akron 1 west: 2.5" Green: 2.1" Trumbull County: Newton Falls: 3.1" Mosquito Creek Lake: 1.8" Wayne County: Dalton: 2.0" Wooster: 1.0" Wood County: Bowling Green 2 northwest: 0.8" .

7.1" here in Bedford Heights, very nice storm. It's these kinds of storms that make our winters fun...not the big events 5 days out that slowly fall apart as we get closer.

Posted it in the main thread, but I think the higher terrain from Cuyahoga County east is good for 3-6" through morning...maybe a locally higher amount depending on how quickly ratios come up during the lake enhanced phase this evening into tonight. Nice little event.