OHweather

Here are some initial thoughts...some of this snow may "blow away" from the immediate shore, especially once we get to Tuesday, but elsewhere I feel good about at least the low ends being met with potential for the upper end of the ranges where the LES is most persistent and/or if we get some decent banding with the synoptic snow.

Looking at the 12z GFS ensemble members, every member except for a couple have at least 0.50-0.75" of QPF over NE OH and a number of them have over 1" in the NE corner of the state. Factor in ratios and the likelihood that those models are under doing QPF with the lake enhancement and that's quite a signal for a widespread heavy snow in NE OH.

My early guess is for a widespread 8-12" with locally over a foot in the high terrain (the immediate shore may see more like 6") late Monday thru Wednesday. Thinking a 2-4" or 3-5" synoptic snow late Monday through early Tueaday then significant lake enhancement with a Huron connection at times late Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon. Ratios will be good and duration is decent so it should add up. We will have to watch for a dry slot if the initial low is more NW like the NAM, but otherwise this looks like a good event. With fluffy snow and gusts over 30MPH especially Tuesday into Wednesday there could be a good amount of blowing snow too.

0.7" this morning at home. Just had a nice squall at work but was in and out and probably didn't accumulate much if at all...but for a minute I could hardly see across the parking lot.

Lake effect conditions briefly improve Friday for a few hours. Maybe some nice squalls but additional accums will be under an inch. The early week potential has gradually trended better in terms of a potential light to moderate synoptic snow followed by lake enhanced snow. If we can keep it on the models another couple of days without it starting to trend worse like everything else this winter I'll start getting pretty excited.

CLE needed to extend the warning a county or two south. Gusts of over 58MPH occurred down to route 30 which is warning criteria. Drove thru a nice stretch of no power in Solon on my way home from work.

At this point I'd put all my eggs in the Monday-Tuesday basket and hope we can get the trough to swing around negative tilted quick enough for a good storm west of the Apps. Amazing how the first two waves really went to crap for our area.

Still plenty of uncertainty regarding our 3 potential systems. Thursday night's system has trended a bit better, but there's still disagreement over the timing and intensity of the developing low. A slower/stronger solution like the NAM occurring overnight Thursday night could drop a widespread 2-4", while something quicker like the GFS would have less QPF with some of that falling during the late afternoon Thursday, possibly keeping accums to just an inch or so. The Saturday night-Sunday system looks more likely to miss south...there's still time to come back north, but with a strongly confluent upper level flow over the NE ahead of the system we'd want the shortwave to trend both stronger and slower for us to have a shot at a good north trend. Possible but certainly not a given. The early week system has trended a bit weaker and north, and that one is starting to look more like a non-starter before we warm up later next week.

We have 3 distinct threats between Thursday and Tuesday, but none of them are close to what I'd call a slam dunk. The first threat is Thursday night into Friday morning...this threat appears to be most likely to miss to our north, but with a strong -NAO trying to keep cold air in place over the NE I don't want to discount the GFS runs that give us a shot of snow, not yet at least. The next threat is Saturday-Sunday. This appears to be more robust shortwave and has the chance to produce a more formidable amount of precip wherever it goes. The Atlantic side blocking will really be well-established by this point so I'm beginning to doubt a miss to our north and rain, however we need just enough of a ridge on the west coast to allow the storm to drop down into the Plains and intensify, otherwise the strong -NAO and displaced polar vortex over Hudson Bay squash that threat to our south. No western ridge and we either get no storm or perhaps a cutter in the face of the -NAO, too much western ridge and it could turn into the big storm for the east coast while staying to our south, so we need something in the middle. The third threat is Monday night through Tuesday as another robust shortwave appears to round the base of the polar vortex and try to amplify. Heights are lowering on the west coast in this time frame suggesting the risk for a cutter may be increased, though whatever is left of the weekend storm may act as a 50/50 low and keep this storm from cutting if the weekend storm can intensify enough. So we have three threats and I could see how any one hits us or whiffs altogether. I'd say a reasonable hope is for one threat to give at least an advisory snow with maybe some lake effect at times through early next week. Some GFS runs have hit us with 2 or 3 and drop a ton of snow. The Atlantic side pattern is conducive for big storms over the east, but the Pacific is being more uncooperative, so it'll be interesting to see what happens.

8.1" here. Saw a report of 9" in Solon. No thunder here but there was at CLE KCLE 031351Z COR 27016G23KT 1/16SM +TSSN FEW009 OVC012CB M04/M07 A3037 RMK AO2 TSB47 SLP295 OCNL LTGICCCCCG SW TS SW MOV E P0002 T10391067

I don't expect much behind this band until maybe one last burst this eveningbut some areas should be close to 10". There was a ton of instability with this event...I really thought with the short fetch and changable winds that while everyone would see a nice accumulation that widespread 6"+ would be hard to do.

7" here and still snowing very hard!!

The METAR at CLE reporting 2" in the 11pm hour and 4" on the ground, and a very intense squall is currently moving over CLE. Should be a nice add to the seasonal snow there

Man Oberlin is in a really tough spot. You need a perfectly placed NW flow band to lock in to get a big total, hard to do. CLE upgraded several counties to warnings. Wish I went higher...I thought the snow tonight would be intense but not quite as organized.

CLE finally issued an advisory for Geauga County and the secondary Snowbelt. 2.5" here and still plenty more to go...some spots will hit 8" by noon Friday. Nice overperformer As a side note CLE currently has the advisory ending at 6am which will be an hour or two before the white out squall along the surface trough pushes through. Hopefully they extended it.

I had 0.8" here. Some 2-3" reports in northern Geauga but otherwise not much. Took too long to get cold enough to stick. The les tonight through tomorrow evening could produce a widespread 2-4" in the Cleveland area and secondary Snowbelt and 4-6" in Geauga County. There could be a burst of very heavy snow tomorrow morning with a trough and there could be thundersnow. There should also be a loosely organized Lake Michigan band tonight that perhaps starts on the west side early and shifts into the east side overnight that may produce some moderate to heavy snow showers...and perhaps one last gasp late tomorrow afternoon and evening as winds shift from NW back towards the west. Not a banner event by any stretch but could warrant some advisories given the timing of the burst tomorrow morning and everyone should get something. With some dry air and a short fetch event totals should stay under control but with a boatload of instability any bands with upstream connections should be heavy at times.

CLE sent some reports of sporadic structural damage such as a couple of roofs off of businesses and more significant tree damage but the winds at my house with the line didn't gust past 40...we had stronger winds with some rain in the middle of the night. I saw a few smaller trees snapped in Solon on Bainbridge road, otherwise it was pretty run of the mill with some small to medium sized limbs down in my area. The severe gusts must've been pretty localized.

A chunk of that can probably be attributed to bad measuring, but you have 11-12, 12-13, last winter and this winter in there and those were all sub par from a snowfall perspective.

After all of that "fun" this morning a little snow is coming tonight. It's not a great lake enhanced setup with mediocre ratios and not a really long period of good instability or lift, but we should get 1-3" tonight, especially inland...in terms of lake enhanced events nothing spectacular. The clipper for tomorrow night is irritating because I'm still impressed with the instability and dynamics and think a band of heavy snow could set up...most models miss us to the south now. With how robust of a system it is maybe it can come in north like the NAM shows and hit us, but I'd like to see something other than the NAM show that at this point. There should still be some lake effect through Friday behind the clipper and that could be heavy at times with a very deep layer of instability and moisture, but it'll be a short fetch event so unless we can lock in an upstream lake connection it may be hard to even see advisory criteria snow from the lake effect...and may instead just see more disorganized bursts that drop 2-4" over the course of 18 hours.

Was a little too far south for the lake effect last night...it snowed but was all pretty light. Ended up with 0.2". There are two interesting potentials for snow between Wednesday night and Friday morning (after potentially another round of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday)...the first one is lake effect or lake enhanced snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The GFS and Euro both are interesting looking but in different ways...the GFS drops 850mb temps down to -10 to -12C (with lake temps of around 2C) and has a little shortwave and surface trough drop through in a WNW flow early Thursday morning. This is more of a pure lake effect look...the model despite marginal lake to 850mb temp differentials has pretty high equilibrium levels and good low-level moisture, along with a pretty well-aligned flow. I could see how that scenario produced a quick few inches with a band of snow in the snowbelt. The Euro is completely different and has more of a lake enhanced snow look, as it drops 850mb temps to around -10C as a band of wrap-around snow drops across the lake late Wednesday night into early Thursday with a NW flow. This scenario could produce several hours of moderate snow, particularly in the moderate terrain, and could produce up to a few inches. I don't really buy the Euro's scenario with that much wrap-around moisture, but either way I'd expect some accumulating snow Wednesday night into early Thursday, especially in the primary snowbelt. The next potential is with a clipper Thursday evening followed by some lake effect into Friday. The GFS is the most robust with this system, and the 12z run has a swath of a few inches of synoptic snow followed by a period of NNW flow lake effect later Thursday night into Friday morning. The Euro is a little weaker and farther south with the synoptic snow and just grazes Cleveland with maybe an inch or two but would likely still be close enough for a period of lake effect. The dynamics on the GFS are rather impressive and could support up to half a foot of synoptic snow Thursday evening in a narrow corridor followed by locally a few more inches of lake effect...my one hang up here is the pattern is rather progressive with some upper level confluence over New England trying to limit how much our clipper can amplify...basically we'd need everything to go perfectly with the clipper for something like the GFS shows, and we'll have to watch trends during the early part of the work-week. Either way, there are two separate snow threats in close proximity after midweek, so hopefully something can work out.

Now it's dropping below freezing with a light dusting of snow on the grass. It's been an amazing stretch of warmth for the last two years or so overall. A string of normal months would feel cold.

It will snow in March. Hopefully a warning criteria event or two. I've been getting a fair amount of thunder and lighting for almost the last two hours. From what I've gathered, here is the extensive record list from Friday from Ohio and immediately surrounding areas...Wow! The high temperature at Cleveland Hopkins reached 77 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 69 degrees set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record high of 74 set on February 26, 2000. This also ties December 3, 1982 as the highest temperature recorded in meteorological winter (the months of December, January, and February). The high temperature at Akron-Canton reached 76 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 68 degrees set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record high of 72 degrees set on February 26, 2000. This also ties December 3, 1982 as the highest temperature recorded in meteorological winter. The temperature at Mansfield reached 74 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 67 degrees set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record high of 71 degrees set on February 26, 2000. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature record in meteorologist winter of 73 degrees set on December 3, 1982. The temperature at Toledo reached 71 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 61 set in 2000. This also ties the previous all-time February record of 71 set on February 11, 1999 and on February 26, 2000. This also ties the highest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 71 degrees which has been previously hit four times. The temperature at Youngstown reached 75 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 67 degrees set in 1967. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 73 degrees set on February 26, 2000. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 73 degrees set on February 26, 2000. The temperature at Erie, PA reached 77 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 67 set in 1906. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 75 set on February 26, 2000. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 75 degrees set on December 3, 1982 and on February 26, 2000. The temperature at New Philadelphia reached 77 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 66 degrees set in 1985. The temperature at Zainesville reached 76 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 70 set in 1961. The temperature at Columbus reached 78 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 72 set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 75 degrees set on February 26, 2000. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 76 degrees set on December 3, 1982. The temperature at Dayton reached 76 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 67 degrees last set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 73 degrees set on February 11, 1999 and February 25, 2000. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 75 degrees set on January 21, 1906. The temperature at Cincinnati reached 78 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 72 degrees set in 1930. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 76 set on February 10, 1932. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 77 set on January 24, 1943. The temperature at Parkersburg, WV reached 79 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 73 degrees set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 77 set four times…on February 8, 1900, February 11, 1932, February 25, 2000, and February 26, 2000. This also ties the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 79 degrees set on December 10, 1971. The temperature at Huntington, WV reached 80 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 73 degrees set in 1930. This ties the all-time February record of 80 degrees set on February 25, 1930. This also ties the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter previously reached 2 times…on December 3, 1982, December 31, 1981, and February 25, 1930.

This next hourly report will give us a hint at the high that we normally hit between 3 and 4 this time of year. Based on the 74 at 1pm I don't think 77 is out of reach, but we'll need to be 75 or 76 at 2pm to have a shot at it.

As of 1pm CLE has tied their all time February record and CAK has broken theirs. Talk about shattering records.

CLE hit 67 today despite a pretty solid overcast all day. The all time February record of 74 is definitely in danger on Friday and if we have sun could be broken by a few degrees.