OHweather

The issue is maps have been floating around of 8-12" down to southern Summit County which won't occur outside of perhaps a very localized corridor that sees a good LES band Tuesday night.

There was a definitely a reduction in QPF on the overnight/early morning models. We'll see if that trend continues and how it affects snow totals... For the synoptic snow late this afternoon through early Tuesday the models are generally showing 0.25 to 0.40" of QPF across the Cleveland/Akron areas with perhaps a tad more in far NE OH. This will still be a long duration synoptic snow event as the 850mb and 700mb lows track right across northern OH between this evening and Tuesday morning keeping relatively modest large scale lift going from late this afternoon through early Tuesday. We will see several hours of isentropic lift/mid-level warm air advection starting late this afternoon leading to what will likely be mainly light snow ahead of the mid-level low followed by getting into a relatively weak deformation zone late tonight through Tuesday morning, which should also keep light snow going. With a shallow unstable layer over the lake and frictional convergence along the western shore with a ENE to NE flow after midnight tonight some lake enhancement could occur there overnight and allow for totals to be an inch or two higher than they would otherwise be. Snow ratios could actually start out fairly high late this afternoon into early this evening as the best lift is focused in the mid-levels in the DGZ, though the flakes could get pretty small overnight as the best lift is focused below the DGZ. Ratios should improve again early Tuesday as the low levels begin to cool, expanding the bottom of the DGZ quite a bit. This improvement in ratios may align with the weak deformation zone along with some lake enhancement swinging through Cleveland/Akron and the snowbelt late tonight into early Tuesday. Given all of this, average ratios of around 13-15:1 seem likely tonight which when combined with the model QPF suggests 3-6" of widespread snow across the northern couple tiers of counties in north-central and NE OH. NW OH will not see as proglonged of a period of modest lift tonight so they may see more like 2 to locally 4". Given the best large scale lift will be east of the western lakeshore, I think even with lake enhancement they should stay in the 3-6" range through early Tuesday. Because the deformation zone appears fairly weak and because lake induced instability won't quite develop until later Tuesday morning, I don't expect widespread 6"+ totals across the Cleveland area or snowbelt through early Tuesday, but some of the higher terrain could be pushing 6" if everything goes well. As the mid-level lows go by Tuesday morning the low-level flow will gradually come around to the NNW and a deepening layer of instability will develop in the low levels over the lake which should allow lake enhancement and orographic lift to really ramp up by later Tuesday morning. Synoptic snow should be rather light by this point, though with some mid-level frontogenesis as a steep 700mb temp gradient moves overhead on the backside of the 700mb low along with vorticity advection and mid-level height falls ahead of the approaching closed 500mb low there will be some large scale lift present which should keep some light synoptic snow going Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. This weak synoptic snow combined with improving lake induced instability and terrain enhancement should allow widespread light to moderate snow to continue downwind of the lake through Tuesday afternoon. Ratios should remain OK as the DGZ lowers into the low levels where the best lift with the lake and terrain enhancement will be. These factors should allow another 2-3" of snow to fall during the day Tuesday, particularly in the higher terrain, with perhaps only an inch near the immediate shore and well inland. Far NE OH could see 3-4" during the day Tuesday as better snow will linger a bit longer there into Tuesday morning...pushing totals thus far to 5-9" in the higher terrain through Tuesday afternoon and 4-7" elsewhere. As we head into Tuesday evening lake effect conditions improve more with equilibrium levels rising to 10k feet for much of the night with good moisture to over 10k feet as well. One concern is a somewhat strong and sheered flow beneath the equilibrium level possibly hurting band organization. With that said the thermodynamic profile will be quite favorable for good snow downwind of the lake and several vort maxes with the closed 500mb low will move overhead, adding some large scale lift and possibly enhancing the lake effect snow. Snow ratios will be high with any lake effect snow that occurs. I suspect either higher terrain or an upstream connection will be needed to get notable additional accumulations with the lake effect Tuesday night into Wednesday with the short fetch and somewhat stronger/sheered flow. With some large scale lift I think even the shore sees at least another inch or two Tuesday night into Wednesday, but could struggle to see more. The higher terrain should see at least a general 2-4" Tuesday night through Wednesday morning given the prolonged favorable upslope flow, thermodynamic environment, and periods of better large scale lift with vort maxes rotating overhead. The key to getting significant lake effect given the short fetch and stronger than perfect winds/sheer in the low levels will be upstream connections to Lake Huron. The models initially have this connection going into the west side early Tuesday evening before gradually swinging to central Cuyahoga and Summit Counties and points east overnight. With a NNW flow I'd expect this connection to be more persistent east of Cleveland and into western Lake/Geauga/Portage Counties. Snow rates of 1-2" per hour could occur with any band with an upstream connection that forms, so 3-7" of additional snow seems possible wherever this connection sets up...likely a bit east of Cleveland proper. The large scale lift ends Wednesday morning as the closed 500mb low moves away and mid-levels really dry out. The low levels remain pretty unstable so LES snow showers with a little additional snow will continue through the day, but additional amounts after 8am Wednesday should largely be 2" or less and confined to the higher terrain. All of this adds up to totals near the shore of 5-9"...most likely in the lower half of that, but if some better lake enhancement occurs or if a Huron band affects certain areas the upper half is possible...and a general 8-13" in the higher terrain just inland from southern Lorain County east through the secondary and primary snowbelt. Locations that see the better lake effect likely with the potential Huron connection will see totals of 10-16" in the higher terrain. NW PA should see a more prolonged period of synoptic snow and better terrain enhancement, so should see 6-10" near the lakeshore and a widespread 10-18" inland.

Here are some initial thoughts...some of this snow may "blow away" from the immediate shore, especially once we get to Tuesday, but elsewhere I feel good about at least the low ends being met with potential for the upper end of the ranges where the LES is most persistent and/or if we get some decent banding with the synoptic snow.

Looking at the 12z GFS ensemble members, every member except for a couple have at least 0.50-0.75" of QPF over NE OH and a number of them have over 1" in the NE corner of the state. Factor in ratios and the likelihood that those models are under doing QPF with the lake enhancement and that's quite a signal for a widespread heavy snow in NE OH.

My early guess is for a widespread 8-12" with locally over a foot in the high terrain (the immediate shore may see more like 6") late Monday thru Wednesday. Thinking a 2-4" or 3-5" synoptic snow late Monday through early Tueaday then significant lake enhancement with a Huron connection at times late Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon. Ratios will be good and duration is decent so it should add up. We will have to watch for a dry slot if the initial low is more NW like the NAM, but otherwise this looks like a good event. With fluffy snow and gusts over 30MPH especially Tuesday into Wednesday there could be a good amount of blowing snow too.

0.7" this morning at home. Just had a nice squall at work but was in and out and probably didn't accumulate much if at all...but for a minute I could hardly see across the parking lot.

Lake effect conditions briefly improve Friday for a few hours. Maybe some nice squalls but additional accums will be under an inch. The early week potential has gradually trended better in terms of a potential light to moderate synoptic snow followed by lake enhanced snow. If we can keep it on the models another couple of days without it starting to trend worse like everything else this winter I'll start getting pretty excited.

CLE needed to extend the warning a county or two south. Gusts of over 58MPH occurred down to route 30 which is warning criteria. Drove thru a nice stretch of no power in Solon on my way home from work.

At this point I'd put all my eggs in the Monday-Tuesday basket and hope we can get the trough to swing around negative tilted quick enough for a good storm west of the Apps. Amazing how the first two waves really went to crap for our area.

Still plenty of uncertainty regarding our 3 potential systems. Thursday night's system has trended a bit better, but there's still disagreement over the timing and intensity of the developing low. A slower/stronger solution like the NAM occurring overnight Thursday night could drop a widespread 2-4", while something quicker like the GFS would have less QPF with some of that falling during the late afternoon Thursday, possibly keeping accums to just an inch or so. The Saturday night-Sunday system looks more likely to miss south...there's still time to come back north, but with a strongly confluent upper level flow over the NE ahead of the system we'd want the shortwave to trend both stronger and slower for us to have a shot at a good north trend. Possible but certainly not a given. The early week system has trended a bit weaker and north, and that one is starting to look more like a non-starter before we warm up later next week.

We have 3 distinct threats between Thursday and Tuesday, but none of them are close to what I'd call a slam dunk. The first threat is Thursday night into Friday morning...this threat appears to be most likely to miss to our north, but with a strong -NAO trying to keep cold air in place over the NE I don't want to discount the GFS runs that give us a shot of snow, not yet at least. The next threat is Saturday-Sunday. This appears to be more robust shortwave and has the chance to produce a more formidable amount of precip wherever it goes. The Atlantic side blocking will really be well-established by this point so I'm beginning to doubt a miss to our north and rain, however we need just enough of a ridge on the west coast to allow the storm to drop down into the Plains and intensify, otherwise the strong -NAO and displaced polar vortex over Hudson Bay squash that threat to our south. No western ridge and we either get no storm or perhaps a cutter in the face of the -NAO, too much western ridge and it could turn into the big storm for the east coast while staying to our south, so we need something in the middle. The third threat is Monday night through Tuesday as another robust shortwave appears to round the base of the polar vortex and try to amplify. Heights are lowering on the west coast in this time frame suggesting the risk for a cutter may be increased, though whatever is left of the weekend storm may act as a 50/50 low and keep this storm from cutting if the weekend storm can intensify enough. So we have three threats and I could see how any one hits us or whiffs altogether. I'd say a reasonable hope is for one threat to give at least an advisory snow with maybe some lake effect at times through early next week. Some GFS runs have hit us with 2 or 3 and drop a ton of snow. The Atlantic side pattern is conducive for big storms over the east, but the Pacific is being more uncooperative, so it'll be interesting to see what happens.

8.1" here. Saw a report of 9" in Solon. No thunder here but there was at CLE KCLE 031351Z COR 27016G23KT 1/16SM +TSSN FEW009 OVC012CB M04/M07 A3037 RMK AO2 TSB47 SLP295 OCNL LTGICCCCCG SW TS SW MOV E P0002 T10391067

I don't expect much behind this band until maybe one last burst this eveningbut some areas should be close to 10". There was a ton of instability with this event...I really thought with the short fetch and changable winds that while everyone would see a nice accumulation that widespread 6"+ would be hard to do.

7" here and still snowing very hard!!

The METAR at CLE reporting 2" in the 11pm hour and 4" on the ground, and a very intense squall is currently moving over CLE. Should be a nice add to the seasonal snow there

Man Oberlin is in a really tough spot. You need a perfectly placed NW flow band to lock in to get a big total, hard to do. CLE upgraded several counties to warnings. Wish I went higher...I thought the snow tonight would be intense but not quite as organized.

CLE finally issued an advisory for Geauga County and the secondary Snowbelt. 2.5" here and still plenty more to go...some spots will hit 8" by noon Friday. Nice overperformer As a side note CLE currently has the advisory ending at 6am which will be an hour or two before the white out squall along the surface trough pushes through. Hopefully they extended it.

I had 0.8" here. Some 2-3" reports in northern Geauga but otherwise not much. Took too long to get cold enough to stick. The les tonight through tomorrow evening could produce a widespread 2-4" in the Cleveland area and secondary Snowbelt and 4-6" in Geauga County. There could be a burst of very heavy snow tomorrow morning with a trough and there could be thundersnow. There should also be a loosely organized Lake Michigan band tonight that perhaps starts on the west side early and shifts into the east side overnight that may produce some moderate to heavy snow showers...and perhaps one last gasp late tomorrow afternoon and evening as winds shift from NW back towards the west. Not a banner event by any stretch but could warrant some advisories given the timing of the burst tomorrow morning and everyone should get something. With some dry air and a short fetch event totals should stay under control but with a boatload of instability any bands with upstream connections should be heavy at times.

CLE sent some reports of sporadic structural damage such as a couple of roofs off of businesses and more significant tree damage but the winds at my house with the line didn't gust past 40...we had stronger winds with some rain in the middle of the night. I saw a few smaller trees snapped in Solon on Bainbridge road, otherwise it was pretty run of the mill with some small to medium sized limbs down in my area. The severe gusts must've been pretty localized.

A chunk of that can probably be attributed to bad measuring, but you have 11-12, 12-13, last winter and this winter in there and those were all sub par from a snowfall perspective.

After all of that "fun" this morning a little snow is coming tonight. It's not a great lake enhanced setup with mediocre ratios and not a really long period of good instability or lift, but we should get 1-3" tonight, especially inland...in terms of lake enhanced events nothing spectacular. The clipper for tomorrow night is irritating because I'm still impressed with the instability and dynamics and think a band of heavy snow could set up...most models miss us to the south now. With how robust of a system it is maybe it can come in north like the NAM shows and hit us, but I'd like to see something other than the NAM show that at this point. There should still be some lake effect through Friday behind the clipper and that could be heavy at times with a very deep layer of instability and moisture, but it'll be a short fetch event so unless we can lock in an upstream lake connection it may be hard to even see advisory criteria snow from the lake effect...and may instead just see more disorganized bursts that drop 2-4" over the course of 18 hours.

Was a little too far south for the lake effect last night...it snowed but was all pretty light. Ended up with 0.2". There are two interesting potentials for snow between Wednesday night and Friday morning (after potentially another round of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday)...the first one is lake effect or lake enhanced snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The GFS and Euro both are interesting looking but in different ways...the GFS drops 850mb temps down to -10 to -12C (with lake temps of around 2C) and has a little shortwave and surface trough drop through in a WNW flow early Thursday morning. This is more of a pure lake effect look...the model despite marginal lake to 850mb temp differentials has pretty high equilibrium levels and good low-level moisture, along with a pretty well-aligned flow. I could see how that scenario produced a quick few inches with a band of snow in the snowbelt. The Euro is completely different and has more of a lake enhanced snow look, as it drops 850mb temps to around -10C as a band of wrap-around snow drops across the lake late Wednesday night into early Thursday with a NW flow. This scenario could produce several hours of moderate snow, particularly in the moderate terrain, and could produce up to a few inches. I don't really buy the Euro's scenario with that much wrap-around moisture, but either way I'd expect some accumulating snow Wednesday night into early Thursday, especially in the primary snowbelt. The next potential is with a clipper Thursday evening followed by some lake effect into Friday. The GFS is the most robust with this system, and the 12z run has a swath of a few inches of synoptic snow followed by a period of NNW flow lake effect later Thursday night into Friday morning. The Euro is a little weaker and farther south with the synoptic snow and just grazes Cleveland with maybe an inch or two but would likely still be close enough for a period of lake effect. The dynamics on the GFS are rather impressive and could support up to half a foot of synoptic snow Thursday evening in a narrow corridor followed by locally a few more inches of lake effect...my one hang up here is the pattern is rather progressive with some upper level confluence over New England trying to limit how much our clipper can amplify...basically we'd need everything to go perfectly with the clipper for something like the GFS shows, and we'll have to watch trends during the early part of the work-week. Either way, there are two separate snow threats in close proximity after midweek, so hopefully something can work out.

Now it's dropping below freezing with a light dusting of snow on the grass. It's been an amazing stretch of warmth for the last two years or so overall. A string of normal months would feel cold.

It will snow in March. Hopefully a warning criteria event or two. I've been getting a fair amount of thunder and lighting for almost the last two hours. From what I've gathered, here is the extensive record list from Friday from Ohio and immediately surrounding areas...Wow! The high temperature at Cleveland Hopkins reached 77 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 69 degrees set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record high of 74 set on February 26, 2000. This also ties December 3, 1982 as the highest temperature recorded in meteorological winter (the months of December, January, and February). The high temperature at Akron-Canton reached 76 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 68 degrees set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record high of 72 degrees set on February 26, 2000. This also ties December 3, 1982 as the highest temperature recorded in meteorological winter. The temperature at Mansfield reached 74 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 67 degrees set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record high of 71 degrees set on February 26, 2000. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature record in meteorologist winter of 73 degrees set on December 3, 1982. The temperature at Toledo reached 71 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 61 set in 2000. This also ties the previous all-time February record of 71 set on February 11, 1999 and on February 26, 2000. This also ties the highest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 71 degrees which has been previously hit four times. The temperature at Youngstown reached 75 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 67 degrees set in 1967. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 73 degrees set on February 26, 2000. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 73 degrees set on February 26, 2000. The temperature at Erie, PA reached 77 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 67 set in 1906. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 75 set on February 26, 2000. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 75 degrees set on December 3, 1982 and on February 26, 2000. The temperature at New Philadelphia reached 77 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 66 degrees set in 1985. The temperature at Zainesville reached 76 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 70 set in 1961. The temperature at Columbus reached 78 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 72 set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 75 degrees set on February 26, 2000. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 76 degrees set on December 3, 1982. The temperature at Dayton reached 76 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 67 degrees last set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 73 degrees set on February 11, 1999 and February 25, 2000. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 75 degrees set on January 21, 1906. The temperature at Cincinnati reached 78 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 72 degrees set in 1930. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 76 set on February 10, 1932. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 77 set on January 24, 1943. The temperature at Parkersburg, WV reached 79 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 73 degrees set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 77 set four times…on February 8, 1900, February 11, 1932, February 25, 2000, and February 26, 2000. This also ties the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 79 degrees set on December 10, 1971. The temperature at Huntington, WV reached 80 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 73 degrees set in 1930. This ties the all-time February record of 80 degrees set on February 25, 1930. This also ties the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter previously reached 2 times…on December 3, 1982, December 31, 1981, and February 25, 1930.

This next hourly report will give us a hint at the high that we normally hit between 3 and 4 this time of year. Based on the 74 at 1pm I don't think 77 is out of reach, but we'll need to be 75 or 76 at 2pm to have a shot at it.