OHweather

The 2000s were very snowy and pushed the 30 year average up several inches, and the 2010s have done the opposite so far. I look at 11-12 and 12-13 as run of the mill back to back bad winters...the last two have been in a league of their own. Hopefully this doesn't become more common going forward. I do think the under measuring in February of 2015 really makes the 13-14 and 14-15 winters look less impressive than they were. Those were two back to back very cold and fairly snowy winters. Februrary of 2015 was arguably the most severe cold and snow combo on record in Cleveland (coldest Feb on record and top 5 snowiest but that should have been higher). The storm at the beginning of the month dropped 10-12" east, west, and north of CLE but managed 8" at CLE which was a bit frustrating. There were a few other smaller systems that month that CLE reported less than surrounding areas on...cold and windy storms in an open airport will do that though.

3.2" additional overnight and into this morning pushing my storm total to 9.8". Really not bad and is my largest storm of the winter (tho the second largest of 8"+ of LES earlier this month fell in about 14 hours as opposed to over 36 hours). Hoping a last flare up can drop a bonus inch this evening.

It really is amazing. I will say that I know people quite well who forecast for both downwind of Lake Ontario and Lake Superior, and our busts are nothing out of the ordinary and in some cases sort of look like child's play...but those areas are not as populated (Syracuse does get up there though, but they need a perfect flow for a big LES event into their metro area and don't have as wide a range of possible winds as we do). Even most of the events that have dumped a lot of snow have been events that did not look great or weren't forecast to be significant but blew up. I really think a lot of the lake effect busts have to do with an over-reliance on models that do not handle LES well...not here and really not downwind of any of the Great Lakes. A good lake effect forecast requires an incredible attention to detail in both the model output and in a potential error in the models in terms of something like wind direction, temperatures, even dew points. Out of the events that have performed most differently than forecasted this winter we've had busts due to a little too much wind or wind shear, in one event temps were warmer than modeled and dew points lower than modeled, and in the "good" busts we've had nearly perfect parameters but everyone was scared to pull the trigger due to less than impressive model QPF. It's really quite difficult and easy to miss something important. Sometimes it's easy to "overthink" things and try to outsmart the models and then look like a moron when the models actually work out close to reality. I've been both over-reliant and too skeptical of the models many times...still hard to find the proper balance. As for the synoptic snow, most areas did see 2-4" with locally 5" of synoptic snow, though there was a poorly placed screw hole over Cleveland and immediately adjacent areas, so this storm was not a big bust in the synoptic snow department. However, even with those storms, a warm wedge working up the west side of the mountains that models traditionally handle poorly, dry air due to downsloping off the mountains, models struggling with east coast cyclogenesis which has effects on lows that "jump" the mountains, and then of course lake influences all can have negative or positive impacts on synoptic snow storms. Models struggle with all of these factors everywhere, however there is a nice convergence of "difficulties" for our local area. Clippers are probably our most reliable synoptic snow and are easier to forecast than a Gulf Low or Panhandle Hook, though lake enhancement behind clippers can add difficulty there too. At this point we are due for a good winter...eventually we'll get one and we won't know what to do with ourselves. I can't imagine a 70" winter at CLE (though 13-14 was above that).

This is definitely the best Huron band we've seen in a while. I've received 1.7" of new snow since I left at 3:30pm pushing my storm total to 6.6". The band has pushed just to my east. I took the "long way" home from work in Bedford Heights at the corner of Miles and Richmond...jumped on 422E in Solon, got off at 306, went down to Pettibone, and cut over to 43. That was a very snowy drive with visibility frequently reduced to a few car lengths and snow covered roads. The Chagrin River valley on Pettibone was a bit of a nail biter in the snow as that's a fairly steep and windy hill on both sides. Luckily my poor decision making didn't cost me as I made it home in my little front wheel drive sedan...I guess those new tires finally paid off. I'd estimate a solid 8-10" in Bainbridge when I drove through and probably around 7 or 8" in Solon. The band is still drifting east slowly. Rates are definitely in excess of 2" per hour in the heart of it, though it's narrow. The models all have a very subtle veer in the winds between midnight and 3am which may push the band back west a few miles before it begins drifting east again closer to dawn. I'm not sure what causes a veer in the winds, perhaps the vort max going by, and it's subtle. Essentially I don't expect the band to move more than a few miles either way through 4am, so a narrow corridor could get drilled pretty good. Instability still improves a bit more over the next couple of hours and the band is intensifying upstream so it may not quite be at its strongest yet. Unfortunately the upslope aided multibands in the higher terrain outside of the main band aren't very impressive at the moment, so it may be tough to see the general few inches I hoped for in the higher terrain outside of the Huron band. A little surprised given seemingly better moisture/instability and even synoptic lift than earlier today when good upslope snow got going. This has definitely been an interesting/challenging event to forecast and watch unfold...hopefully the Huron band stalls enough to really allow for a big total so we don't rhetorically ask in what decade the last good Lake Huron aided band was everytime there's a chance at it occurring

About 5" here thus far (2" of LES today)...been just a little bit south of the best snow all day but it's come down moderately on several occasions. The hi-res NAM and NMM keep the Huron band on the east side...the HRRR, RAP, and ARW keep it over CLE or a bit west for much of the night. With a NNW wind I'd expect it to be east of downtown, but winds over Lake Huron may have a bit of an easterly component, keeping the band over the western portion of Lake Huron, possibly causing it to come in a bit west of expected here. I'd overall bank on it coming in on the east side, and I think it may be close to me...I'm selfishly hoping it's pretty on top of me. I'm optimistic for big totals with the Huron band tonight...most conditions seem to be a go. Given good lift with the closed upper low and plenty of moisture and instability I'm bumping up to a general 3-6" additional this evening through Wednesday morning in the higher terrain from northern Medina County points east, with 6-12" where the Huron band affects the most. There could be one last flareup Wednesday evening as one last little trough moves through that could produce 1-3" in he Snowbelt. For locations near the lake, really the only area that will fall well short of expectations, the Huron band could produce a few quick inches in a narrow corridor, but I don't see them getting anything notable outside of the Huron band. We'll see what happens...

For the bigger events they're normally a good 10k feet tall but at the moment they're definitely not as there is a fairly low inversion. Tonight they'll be a little taller I'd reckon.

And the elusive Huron band into Sandusky of all places.

A spotter 2N of Chardon reported 4" new since 7am and 8" storm total so far. The few inches of snow that accumulated on pavement here is actually starting to melt on its own despite half decent snow still falling thanks to the high sun angle most likely.

I got a little less than an inch of LES this morning and my total is at 3.8" here. Looking through the reports most areas got 2-4", with parts of far eastern OH squeaking out 5" and a few spots mainly close to the lake in the Cleveland area not seeing 2", possibly due to the wind literally blowing it all away. CLE got 1.4" through 12z. So far a couple of inches behind forecast. The lake effect this morning has been more robust than the models showed, but I think some dry air is really eating away at it at the moment so we'll see how it responds over the next couple of hours. Over the last hour or so the Lake Huron response has increased and a potent vort max is poised to move over Lake Erie later this afternoon into this evening so I expect a similar marked increase then too. This afternoon it may flare up a little bit as instability increases but the big increase should be this evening as better lift arrives and as instability gets to be significant. The Huron connection is currently moving inland near Sandusky (with clouds with it evident with it down to near Bellefontaine) and will swing east towards the Cleveland area by early evening...we'll see where exactly it sets up...probably on the east side or Geauga County. Even outside of the main Huron band I think multi-bands should produce moderate snow in the higher terrain of the primary and secondary Snowbelt.

The lakeshore really needed the synoptic snow to come through. The lake effect setup looks good tonight, especially where the Huron band sets up, but the stronger northerly winds will remain an issue near the lake. I see that about 650 schools or almost all of them closed in NE OH today. Certainly different than 5-10 years ago when Solon wouldn't close for a 6 or 8" snow overnight...

Every ob around you reported snow by like 8pm, and I'm not 10 miles from you and it was definitely snowing, so you're severely exaggerating. With that said, the synoptic snow did underperform...I have close to 3" in NE Summit County, was hoping for a little more. Every LSR from CLE so far has been 2-3.5" for north central and NE Ohio, which is a couple of inches lower than I would have hoped for.

The issue is maps have been floating around of 8-12" down to southern Summit County which won't occur outside of perhaps a very localized corridor that sees a good LES band Tuesday night.

There was a definitely a reduction in QPF on the overnight/early morning models. We'll see if that trend continues and how it affects snow totals... For the synoptic snow late this afternoon through early Tuesday the models are generally showing 0.25 to 0.40" of QPF across the Cleveland/Akron areas with perhaps a tad more in far NE OH. This will still be a long duration synoptic snow event as the 850mb and 700mb lows track right across northern OH between this evening and Tuesday morning keeping relatively modest large scale lift going from late this afternoon through early Tuesday. We will see several hours of isentropic lift/mid-level warm air advection starting late this afternoon leading to what will likely be mainly light snow ahead of the mid-level low followed by getting into a relatively weak deformation zone late tonight through Tuesday morning, which should also keep light snow going. With a shallow unstable layer over the lake and frictional convergence along the western shore with a ENE to NE flow after midnight tonight some lake enhancement could occur there overnight and allow for totals to be an inch or two higher than they would otherwise be. Snow ratios could actually start out fairly high late this afternoon into early this evening as the best lift is focused in the mid-levels in the DGZ, though the flakes could get pretty small overnight as the best lift is focused below the DGZ. Ratios should improve again early Tuesday as the low levels begin to cool, expanding the bottom of the DGZ quite a bit. This improvement in ratios may align with the weak deformation zone along with some lake enhancement swinging through Cleveland/Akron and the snowbelt late tonight into early Tuesday. Given all of this, average ratios of around 13-15:1 seem likely tonight which when combined with the model QPF suggests 3-6" of widespread snow across the northern couple tiers of counties in north-central and NE OH. NW OH will not see as proglonged of a period of modest lift tonight so they may see more like 2 to locally 4". Given the best large scale lift will be east of the western lakeshore, I think even with lake enhancement they should stay in the 3-6" range through early Tuesday. Because the deformation zone appears fairly weak and because lake induced instability won't quite develop until later Tuesday morning, I don't expect widespread 6"+ totals across the Cleveland area or snowbelt through early Tuesday, but some of the higher terrain could be pushing 6" if everything goes well. As the mid-level lows go by Tuesday morning the low-level flow will gradually come around to the NNW and a deepening layer of instability will develop in the low levels over the lake which should allow lake enhancement and orographic lift to really ramp up by later Tuesday morning. Synoptic snow should be rather light by this point, though with some mid-level frontogenesis as a steep 700mb temp gradient moves overhead on the backside of the 700mb low along with vorticity advection and mid-level height falls ahead of the approaching closed 500mb low there will be some large scale lift present which should keep some light synoptic snow going Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. This weak synoptic snow combined with improving lake induced instability and terrain enhancement should allow widespread light to moderate snow to continue downwind of the lake through Tuesday afternoon. Ratios should remain OK as the DGZ lowers into the low levels where the best lift with the lake and terrain enhancement will be. These factors should allow another 2-3" of snow to fall during the day Tuesday, particularly in the higher terrain, with perhaps only an inch near the immediate shore and well inland. Far NE OH could see 3-4" during the day Tuesday as better snow will linger a bit longer there into Tuesday morning...pushing totals thus far to 5-9" in the higher terrain through Tuesday afternoon and 4-7" elsewhere. As we head into Tuesday evening lake effect conditions improve more with equilibrium levels rising to 10k feet for much of the night with good moisture to over 10k feet as well. One concern is a somewhat strong and sheered flow beneath the equilibrium level possibly hurting band organization. With that said the thermodynamic profile will be quite favorable for good snow downwind of the lake and several vort maxes with the closed 500mb low will move overhead, adding some large scale lift and possibly enhancing the lake effect snow. Snow ratios will be high with any lake effect snow that occurs. I suspect either higher terrain or an upstream connection will be needed to get notable additional accumulations with the lake effect Tuesday night into Wednesday with the short fetch and somewhat stronger/sheered flow. With some large scale lift I think even the shore sees at least another inch or two Tuesday night into Wednesday, but could struggle to see more. The higher terrain should see at least a general 2-4" Tuesday night through Wednesday morning given the prolonged favorable upslope flow, thermodynamic environment, and periods of better large scale lift with vort maxes rotating overhead. The key to getting significant lake effect given the short fetch and stronger than perfect winds/sheer in the low levels will be upstream connections to Lake Huron. The models initially have this connection going into the west side early Tuesday evening before gradually swinging to central Cuyahoga and Summit Counties and points east overnight. With a NNW flow I'd expect this connection to be more persistent east of Cleveland and into western Lake/Geauga/Portage Counties. Snow rates of 1-2" per hour could occur with any band with an upstream connection that forms, so 3-7" of additional snow seems possible wherever this connection sets up...likely a bit east of Cleveland proper. The large scale lift ends Wednesday morning as the closed 500mb low moves away and mid-levels really dry out. The low levels remain pretty unstable so LES snow showers with a little additional snow will continue through the day, but additional amounts after 8am Wednesday should largely be 2" or less and confined to the higher terrain. All of this adds up to totals near the shore of 5-9"...most likely in the lower half of that, but if some better lake enhancement occurs or if a Huron band affects certain areas the upper half is possible...and a general 8-13" in the higher terrain just inland from southern Lorain County east through the secondary and primary snowbelt. Locations that see the better lake effect likely with the potential Huron connection will see totals of 10-16" in the higher terrain. NW PA should see a more prolonged period of synoptic snow and better terrain enhancement, so should see 6-10" near the lakeshore and a widespread 10-18" inland.

Here are some initial thoughts...some of this snow may "blow away" from the immediate shore, especially once we get to Tuesday, but elsewhere I feel good about at least the low ends being met with potential for the upper end of the ranges where the LES is most persistent and/or if we get some decent banding with the synoptic snow.

Looking at the 12z GFS ensemble members, every member except for a couple have at least 0.50-0.75" of QPF over NE OH and a number of them have over 1" in the NE corner of the state. Factor in ratios and the likelihood that those models are under doing QPF with the lake enhancement and that's quite a signal for a widespread heavy snow in NE OH.

My early guess is for a widespread 8-12" with locally over a foot in the high terrain (the immediate shore may see more like 6") late Monday thru Wednesday. Thinking a 2-4" or 3-5" synoptic snow late Monday through early Tueaday then significant lake enhancement with a Huron connection at times late Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon. Ratios will be good and duration is decent so it should add up. We will have to watch for a dry slot if the initial low is more NW like the NAM, but otherwise this looks like a good event. With fluffy snow and gusts over 30MPH especially Tuesday into Wednesday there could be a good amount of blowing snow too.

0.7" this morning at home. Just had a nice squall at work but was in and out and probably didn't accumulate much if at all...but for a minute I could hardly see across the parking lot.

Lake effect conditions briefly improve Friday for a few hours. Maybe some nice squalls but additional accums will be under an inch. The early week potential has gradually trended better in terms of a potential light to moderate synoptic snow followed by lake enhanced snow. If we can keep it on the models another couple of days without it starting to trend worse like everything else this winter I'll start getting pretty excited.

CLE needed to extend the warning a county or two south. Gusts of over 58MPH occurred down to route 30 which is warning criteria. Drove thru a nice stretch of no power in Solon on my way home from work.

At this point I'd put all my eggs in the Monday-Tuesday basket and hope we can get the trough to swing around negative tilted quick enough for a good storm west of the Apps. Amazing how the first two waves really went to crap for our area.

Still plenty of uncertainty regarding our 3 potential systems. Thursday night's system has trended a bit better, but there's still disagreement over the timing and intensity of the developing low. A slower/stronger solution like the NAM occurring overnight Thursday night could drop a widespread 2-4", while something quicker like the GFS would have less QPF with some of that falling during the late afternoon Thursday, possibly keeping accums to just an inch or so. The Saturday night-Sunday system looks more likely to miss south...there's still time to come back north, but with a strongly confluent upper level flow over the NE ahead of the system we'd want the shortwave to trend both stronger and slower for us to have a shot at a good north trend. Possible but certainly not a given. The early week system has trended a bit weaker and north, and that one is starting to look more like a non-starter before we warm up later next week.

We have 3 distinct threats between Thursday and Tuesday, but none of them are close to what I'd call a slam dunk. The first threat is Thursday night into Friday morning...this threat appears to be most likely to miss to our north, but with a strong -NAO trying to keep cold air in place over the NE I don't want to discount the GFS runs that give us a shot of snow, not yet at least. The next threat is Saturday-Sunday. This appears to be more robust shortwave and has the chance to produce a more formidable amount of precip wherever it goes. The Atlantic side blocking will really be well-established by this point so I'm beginning to doubt a miss to our north and rain, however we need just enough of a ridge on the west coast to allow the storm to drop down into the Plains and intensify, otherwise the strong -NAO and displaced polar vortex over Hudson Bay squash that threat to our south. No western ridge and we either get no storm or perhaps a cutter in the face of the -NAO, too much western ridge and it could turn into the big storm for the east coast while staying to our south, so we need something in the middle. The third threat is Monday night through Tuesday as another robust shortwave appears to round the base of the polar vortex and try to amplify. Heights are lowering on the west coast in this time frame suggesting the risk for a cutter may be increased, though whatever is left of the weekend storm may act as a 50/50 low and keep this storm from cutting if the weekend storm can intensify enough. So we have three threats and I could see how any one hits us or whiffs altogether. I'd say a reasonable hope is for one threat to give at least an advisory snow with maybe some lake effect at times through early next week. Some GFS runs have hit us with 2 or 3 and drop a ton of snow. The Atlantic side pattern is conducive for big storms over the east, but the Pacific is being more uncooperative, so it'll be interesting to see what happens.

8.1" here. Saw a report of 9" in Solon. No thunder here but there was at CLE KCLE 031351Z COR 27016G23KT 1/16SM +TSSN FEW009 OVC012CB M04/M07 A3037 RMK AO2 TSB47 SLP295 OCNL LTGICCCCCG SW TS SW MOV E P0002 T10391067

I don't expect much behind this band until maybe one last burst this eveningbut some areas should be close to 10". There was a ton of instability with this event...I really thought with the short fetch and changable winds that while everyone would see a nice accumulation that widespread 6"+ would be hard to do.

7" here and still snowing very hard!!