OHweather

Fluffy/efficient lake effect processes occurring beneath/within a broader synoptic snow are basically magic in terms of getting good snow, but it’s rarely organized into a firehose like what’s been going into Toronto.

Glad the lake effect came through for the Chicago folks!

Yeah I’ve been underwhelmed by this in the Cleveland area. I’m at 6” or so right now…one more better band to swing through the next few hours then it’s down to off and on lingering lighter stuff through Monday. The drive in this morning was pretty bad, the drive home was not any worse, so it just wasn’t snowing much during the day at times. The snow to liquid ratios at some of the airports through 1 PM was near or only a little over 10:1, so I think the big issue was we needed ratios to come through for bigger totals and we largely have struggled to make good flakes most of the storm. Overall it’s still a warning level snow in what’s been a cold and snowy stretch, but am a little bummed that despite last minute upticks in guidance until pretty much hour 0 we’re finding a way to come in on the disappointing side around here. Par the course for synoptic snows I guess. The Canton and Youngstown areas have or will clear a foot, so it was close.

Even though the lake effect affecting the southwestern shoreline of Lake Michigan tonight into Sunday is rather shallow, forecast soundings within it depict strong low-level instability with lift maximizing in the DGZ. Supportive of relatively intense and very fluffy/high ratio lake effect. If the band can sit over an area for several hours...which may be possible somewhere over NE IL or far SE WI within a few miles of the lake...there's definitely local overperformance potential into the 6" range.

Everything seems to be lining up for this to be a pretty epic storm for Ohio, with almost the entire state seeing 6"+ and a thick swath of 12-18" looking likely. All models really locking in today, the only question is how quickly mixing punches into SE OH. This will definitely be the biggest snow for the state (overall) since the February 5-6, 2010 storm and will not be far off from that one.

Good trends today, slightly more amped and a bit more QPF across northern Ohio. I’d go 9-14” across all of Northeast OH (best shot for a foot plus appears to be Akron-Canton over towards Youngstown), tapering a bit (let’s say 7-11”) towards Sandusky and a bit less but still solid (6-10”) towards Toledo. There may still be a fairly sharp gradient between double digit amounts and amounts closer to 6” somewhere between the I-71 corridor and NW Ohio, though I think everyone a little further E/SE is in great shape for the biggest synoptic snow since at least early 2022.

Yeah that seems like a fair bare minimum. To their credit, they’ve realized that the FV3 core the GFS/RRFS currently run on won’t work, and the next version of the RRFS will be run on an MPAS core. Early indications are that will be much better. With that said, that they’ve decided to still move ahead with making the RRFS/REFS operational and turning off the NAM and several other models that go into the HREF while the RRFS still is running on the shitty model core that they’ve acknowledged they need to replace is certainly a choice.

RRFS is cheeks Although NAM is also cheeks in its own ways Feels like a one step forward one step backward kind of tradeoff (although turning off most of the HREF members and going to the REFS is an additional step backwards IMO)

A model's QPF does in theory take into account things like low-level RH and if precip will make it to the ground, but some models struggle more with it than others. We don't assume a static snow ratio...the NWS snow forecast largely comes from taking QPF (which is usually a blend of many models and ensemble members...outside of lake effect situations) and snow ratios (which do adjust based on the modeled temperature/moisture/lift profile, but certainly can be wrong at times) and multiplying them (more complicated calculations come into play with mixed precip or temps above freezing, which isn't the case here). I would say the CLE snow forecast has been a bit more conservative compared to some model output, but there are enough ensemble members that don't have as much QPF up here that that's likely why the forecast hasn't been as aggressive as say the last several Euro runs.

I'm still at cle yes Heh, if it does end up phasing quicker (which the 18z NAM tried to do) you may still be in play for some accumulation. But there isn't great news for a more significant trend in that direction IMO

Just a few random thoughts...there've definitely been small but additive bumps SE over the last several runs of the non-GFS guidance. It's largely been caused by the PV over the Upper Midwest/Plains ahead of the storm refusing to lift out at all, along with subtle trends for perhaps a slower ejection of the storm into the Plains (lets the PV press in more ahead of it) and some lingering run-to-run disagreement over how well the storm phases over the southern Plains. Overall, I don't expect more than relatively small adjustments from here on in, but a quick look at how guidance has been trending and what still could change in my eyes... This is the European ensemble mean 500mb heights for the last several runs valid at 12z Sunday. There still are subtle run-to-run adjustments both with the exact placement of the PV and with how well-phased the trough ejecting into the Plains is...to me, the there haven't been substantial trends either way with the PV while the trough has trended perhaps a bit less phased overall. Heights are still rising plenty ahead of the storm and there may be room for a subtle trend back northwest if we see a better phase, but unless we see trends towards the PV lifting out quicker I don't think it makes a huge difference for those who are on the outside looking in for heavy snow. This is just the 500mb height and vorticity trends from the operational Euro...there are not clear trends towards a more or less phased solution overall, though there may be a slight trend for the trough to eject into the Plains slower, which in theory could give the PV a little more of a chance to press in ahead of it. The red circles are the main pieces of energy phasing together with this storm...the Baja low and shortwave diving into Canada have not been fully sampled yet, but will become increasingly sampled in the next sets of 0z/12z runs. There may be some opportunity for trends regarding how well the storm phases over those next cycles, though my guess is there won't be a significant trend either way. The shortwave circled in blue isn't really phasing into this, but will help dictate how much the PV presses into the upper Midwest/Plains Lakes north of the storm. My guess is we won't see a notable trend with the PV from here on out, though I've been surprised before. Overall, I think it's the PV over the Plains that is skunking those who needed more of a NW trend than we got and it doesn't seem like that's changing as the storm becomes more imminent. There is still room for subtle trends based on a quicker/slower phase, though any northwest trends won't be huge. It wouldn't shock me if there's another bump SE before we're done, though I personally don't want that if we can avoid it...

I think NE OH is in a good spot for this one...the heaviest QPF axis will remain a bit to our south, but soundings suggest ratios should be around 15:1 for most of the day Sunday (and likely climbing higher in any lingering lake enhanced snow by early Monday). There have been slight bumps SE in my eyes in both the 0z and 12z runs today, but we're still solidly inside the swath of heavier snow. Overall, I don't expect much more than small fluctuations/trends from here on in with this storm but I'll try to look at what could change. There are some sensitivities to both how well the storm phases to our southwest and how much the PV over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is trying to press in. A better phase would argue for a further northwest track, but northwest trends have been stunted for the last several runs now due to the PV to the north not lifting out much as the storm deepens and tracks NE Saturday night into Sunday. This is the European ensemble mean 500mb heights for the last several runs valid at 12z Sunday. There still are subtle run-to-run adjustments both with the exact placement of the PV and with how well-phased the trough ejecting into the Plains is...to me, the there haven't been substantial trends either way with the PV while the trough has trended perhaps a bit less phased overall. That has resulted in what I think has been a small SE bump in these recent runs. Heights are still rising plenty ahead of the storm and there may be room for a subtle trend back northwest if we see a better phase, but unless we see trends towards the PV lifting out quicker I don't think it makes a huge difference. This is just the 500mb height and vorticity trends from the operational Euro...there are not clear trends towards a more or less phased solution overall, though there may be a slight trend for the trough to eject into the Plains slower, which in theory could give the PV a little more of a chance to press in ahead of it. The red circles are the main pieces of energy phasing together with this storm...the Baja low and shortwave diving into Canada have not been fully sampled yet, but will becoming increasingly sampled in the next sets of 0z/12z runs. There may be some opportunity for trends regarding how well the storm phases over those next cycles, though my guess is there won't be a significant trend either way. The shortwave circled in blue isn't really phasing into this, but will help dictate how much the PV presses into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes north of the storm. My guess is we won't see a notable trend with the PV from here on out, though I've been surprised before. Overall, guidance has bumped SE a bit in recent runs but the overall change hasn't been much for NE OH, as we are pretty solidly inside the swath of heavier snow. There will be some snow from late Saturday night through Monday morning in NE OH, a long duration, with the heaviest occurring late Sunday morning through early Sunday evening as it looks now. Despite the icy lake, there will probably be some form of enhancement amid lingering light synoptic snow through at least Monday morning as the storm pulls away. My guess is rates will generally be modest, but a few hours of rates pushing an inch per hour on Sunday seem feasible. My guess on snow for most of NE OH would be in the 7-13" range...only sticking 7" in there in case the PV presses in a bit more and we see another small bump or two SE, though if you take guidance as it is now we'll pretty solid for like 9-12". It does get iffier for Toledo, they currently look solid for something like 5-8" but are a bump SE away from seeing that decrease some more.

Canadian gets the surface low into OH lol, precip shield not much more expansive to the NW though...despite the storm being well-phased, the PV over the upper Midwest isn't playing extremely nicely. Still will be a nice map overall...

Umm

0z GFS trending towards the rest of the pack