OHweather

I don’t think that overall HRRR solution is too far off, but I would shift everything 10-15 miles ENE in terms of its placement. The RGEM and hi-res NAM are in decent enough agreement on band placement that I’d expect something close to those solutions.

Definitely looks like the main show will be well north of me...curse of being a Summit County resident I suppose...though, still a pretty interesting looking event overall and some hopes I get some scraps down this way on Friday. Already starting to see some loosely organized lake effect taking shape over the lake and heading into the Buffalo/Niagara Falls area. The band should start pushing onshore from eastern Lake/northern Ashtabula Counties into northern Erie County PA overnight tonight. Winds lock in for several hours during the day Thursday...winds over the northern half of the lake will turn more WNW'rly, but winds closer to the south shore and on land over OH will remain more WSW or even SW through the day. So, I suspect we'll see a band that gets into a good portion of Lake County and probably far northern Geauga Thursday morning...extending east across northern/central Ashtabula, most of Erie County and perhaps extreme northern Crawford County in PA...but probably struggling to push much farther than that for most of Thursday. Through tonight, very strong boundary layer flow of 40-50kt over the lake, somewhat conditional instability, and the instability lift largely staying focused below the DGZ, all argue for snow rates remaining fairly under control. Conditions gradually improve through the day Thursday as the cold air deepens a bit and as the boundary layer flow over the lake weakens slightly, so we'll likely start seeing some 1" per hour rates within the heart of the band during the day Thursday. A pretty good shortwave crosses late Thursday afternoon/early evening, bringing winds around just a bit more and allowing for deeper cold air and moisture, with some Lake Michigan connection, to spread in. So, expect the band to push a bit farther south Thursday evening and really start to rip, quite possibly to the tune of 1-2" per hour. Soundings are most favorable Thursday night overall with equilibrium levels pushing to as high as 15k feet and deep moisture, to go along with decent lift and instability through the DGZ. The band probably will push into northern/eastern Cuyahoga, northern/central Geauga, much of Ashtabula, southern Erie and more of Crawford PA the first half of Thursday night. Another subtle trough crosses after midnight Thursday night, bringing a better push of WNW winds pre-dawn Friday. At that point, we should see activity expand into at least central/eastern Cuyahoga, southern Geauga/northern Portage, and northern/central Trumbull, though with the shorter fetch we may see the dominant band break up into upslope snow showers and weaker multi bands, with perhaps some lingering organization focused near Cuyahoga County. Activity may lull, or at least be fairly disorganized, for several hours during the day Friday. Winds begin backing late Friday into Friday night and there are decent signs of a last gasp type W-E band developing across Cuyahoga and into Geauga County Friday evening, and perhaps lasting a few or several hours before weakening/shifting farther NE late Friday night. I'll post a very rough map without real numbers on it (just wanted to draw something quick)...I do think the heaviest accums focus slightly inland given the very strong flow over the lake for most of the event, even if banding hangs up near the lakeshore for most of Thursday. I think eastern Cuyahoga into northern/central Geauga is a very good spot, as they'll probably get a lot of snow between late Thursday and early Friday with a little more Friday evening/night. It will be quite windy through Thursday with near blizzard conditions wherever the band is...winds gradually ease Thursday night into Friday but remain gusty enough for some blowing/drifting. I'll finally get a crack at the official forecast/AFD during the day tomorrow. The headlines currently out are reasonable, and our afternoon update today lowered things noticeably along the lakeshore and fine tuned peak amounts a bit and I don't think it's unreasonable at all. I may have the "fun" of deciding if Summit needs an advisory or if Trumbull needs a warning tomorrow, assuming neither upgrade is made on tonight's midnight shift.

Models have trended towards swinging the winds around to the WNW a bit quicker over the last day or so…suspect the lake effect will struggle to push south of Lake County and far northern Geauga until late Thursday, but then there’s a pretty prolonged and decent WNW flow setup Thursday evening through most of Friday. Should be a solid setup for eastern Cuyahoga into Geauga and through the rest of the inland snowbelt. I could see the lakeshore struggling given the very strong winds over the water and fairly quick wind shift to WNW, but there may be a smaller area where banding sits on Thursday along the lakeshore (possibly in Lake or Ashtabula Counties) that does quite well.

Have gotten 2" so far, with 1.7" of that last night into this morning. This event has been pretty whelming if not on the underwhelming side. A few spots did ok, it looks like Geauga County did decently this evening. However, the carpet bomb winter storm watch for 5-10" did not work out.

Some pretty impressive ascent from the vort max and meso low!

Yeah it seems like they're alluding to it in their AFD as well. It may be hard to know exactly which way it'll go until the mesolow pushes farther inland/weakens a bit over the next few hours, as that's when the band will be more free to whip west, which it will still want to do based on radar trends farther up the lake. However, the shorter the window for that to happen the better for getting the band to stay more coherent.

Some light accums have taken place in northern Summit over the last couple hours. On the board!

I don't think the band taking slightly longer to swing west is a bad thing for the immediate lakeshore/Chicago area (and probably ups the odds at someone getting a higher-end total)...some earlier model depictions had it swinging west and breaking into weaker multi-bands pretty quickly (before congealing as it swings back east on Monday). This slower west push right now may allow for a more focused band that lasts longer close to the lake later tonight.

Well, it turns out the AI models were on to something with that southerly low track. Saw that Toledo got a nice little thump of moderate to heavy snow with accumulation this morning. As for the LES, this remains a tricky forecast with the amount of instability providing for potential upside, but a lack of band persistence/organization evident on models is a potential significant limiting factor. Starting tonight, (mainly light) synoptic precip with some northerly flow lake/upslope enhancement this evening will give way to more classic lake effect precip after midnight. Conditions will become quite conducive to lake effect by early Monday, with lake-induced equilibrium levels climbing over 10k feet overnight and BUFKIT displaying "extreme" instability by sunrise, with lake to 850mb temp differentials of over 20C and lake to 700mb diffs of around 30C. Lingering synoptic moisture should be fairly abundant in the lowest 10-15k feet much of the night. We should see rain mix with and gradually change to snow this evening in the Cleveland area with the higher terrain going first. It will get cold enough for accumulations by late evening or the overnight under any organized bands, especially inland. There are suggestions of a potential Lake Huron connection setting up well west of Cleveland tonight...with some enhancement near Cleveland into the Medina/Lorain County area also hinted at most of tonight. Farther east, there could be some less organized lake effect/upslope precip overnight into early Monday. I think most of the area will see a light accumulation tonight, though near the lake may not see any stick outside of any localized heavier bands. Snow rates within bands could top an inch an hour overnight but bands may be moving a bit too much...however, a slower moving band would be the opportunity for locally a few inches tonight into early Monday. Winds will shift from N to NW through the day Monday, with a patch of subsidence and drier air working through during part of the day. Lake Huron enhancement will swing east across the Cleveland area and into the Snowbelt on Monday. It will still be quite unstable on Monday so this band may still be heavy at times, but activity outside of any Lake Huron connection could be pretty limited on Monday and accumulations will be harder to come by during the day outside of bands. So, I could see some localized amounts of up to a couple inches during the day Monday, mainly with any activity enhancement by Lake Huron. The most ideal window looks like Monday night into early Tuesday. The core of the closed low/cold core aloft will move right over Lake Erie Monday evening, with NW winds gradually shifting more W Monday night. Conditions will be very conducive to intense LES the first half or so of Monday night...they gradually decline later Monday night into Tuesday, though heavy snow in bands should be supported into early Tuesday at least. The main target Monday night will be the Lake Huron connection, which may settle into NW PA for a good chunk of the night. However, a couple of other bands will likely play out across the Snowbelt and Cleveland metro. Bands may again move just enough Monday night to keep amounts somewhat under control, though could see additional 6-10" amounts in PA if the Lake Huron connection is stable enough, with locally several more inches across parts of NE Ohio under more organized bands.

The AI models have seemed to do well with picking out trends ahead of time. In this case, the low doesn’t look like it’ll be well phased with the incoming lobe of the PV and some of the numerical models and ensembles have shifted a bit farther south. So I don’t think the southerly track is off the table. But I do think that if it trends much farther south it also trends weaker, which could really limit any snow potential in such a marginal airmass.

Yeah, this is looking quite interesting still. There are still some disagreements on the synoptic setup, the GFS is a bit more progressive and would maybe limit the high-end potential, though the Euro and Canadian are more amplified and bring the core of the 500mb cold pool over or near Lake Erie Monday into Monday night...which could allow for a very fun event. It seems like lake enhanced/effect precip ramps up Sunday evening as we get into cold advection behind the departing low pressure. The flow will be northerly at this point, with some sort of Lake Huron enhanced band likely taking shape west of Cleveland initially. There could also be some disorganized showers/upslope into the higher terrain of the snowbelt. Instability isn't anything too extreme at first and the deeper cold air doesn't arrive until overnight, so accumulations may be marginal through Sunday evening. Activity should get more intense and accumulate more efficiently, even close to the lake, overnight into Monday morning. There's good agreement that the broad cyclonic flow will persist but gradually back to a more westerly direction Monday through Tuesday. It will be northwest on Monday, more west-northwest Monday night, and probably more west or even west-southwest on Tuesday. This will likely pivot any Lake Huron band east across the Cleveland metro and secondary snowbelt during the day Monday and into the primary snowbelt by Monday night, with perhaps a W-E band flaring up Monday night into Tuesday east of Cleveland while the Lake Huron band pivots east across Ashtabula County and Northwest PA. The global models don't have the resolution to resolve such features, but they seem to be hinting at some strong shoreline convergence or perhaps a mesolow of sorts evolving near or just offshore of Cleveland on Monday, which could be intriguing. Where the uncertainty lies is in mesoscale details, such as where upstream connections set-up, how our shoreline convergence behaves, and if a mesolow forms on Lake Erie. That will heavily dictate how organized any banding is and where it develops. With the flow slowly shifting from NNW to W or even WSW through the event, it has the potential to really spread the wealth. The potential exists for extreme instability, with fairly good synoptic moisture and support, especially if the trough is on the deeper side like the Canadian or Euro, which could allow for very impressive snow rates and double digit totals...the GFS would be ok, but it's not quite as good. Temperatures will be somewhat marginal, but by overnight Sunday night and through Tuesday morning should be cold enough that organized bands will be intense and able to accumulate. The higher terrain inland will accumulate more readily, but under good bands it should accumulate close to the lake. Should be a fun event to track! I'll actually be down in Athens Friday and Saturday so won't be forecasting this in an official capacity, but I'll be back in town before the event starts and may actually get some snow at my house!

At this point, I am definitely "in" on accumulating snow somewhere across the snowbelt to start next week. It is short lived, but there will be a nice pattern amplification this weekend into the beginning of next week. That will send a chunk of the PV currently up over the arctic circle south into the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday: While details are of course going back and forth on the latest deterministic model runs as they will at this range, the ensemble mean SLP, 850mb temperature, and QPF loop is a pretty good look for lake effect: There may be some wet snow with that little wave of low pressure on Sunday depending on where it tracks...however, the lake effect ramps up behind it Sunday night into Monday, and probably lingers into Tuesday before ridging and warm air advection really start kicking in. Ensemble mean 850mb temps are down around -9C on Monday, with the ensemble mean depicting nice cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes and suggesting a more west to northwest wind direction. 500mb temperatures are progged to bottom out between -35 and -40C over a lake that is currently about 12C, which suggests very strong and deep instability is in play, potentially enough for thunder and lightning. We'll need to see how the specifics evolve as it gets closer, but the ingredients are there for a (somewhat brief) period of intense lake effect centered around Monday of next week, and the airmass should be cold enough for accumulating snow if we're able to get any sort of organized activity...which seems likely.

It doesn't last long because the Pacific is moving way too fast right now, but a nice pattern amplification this weekend into the beginning of next week. You can see the chunk of the PV at the beginning of the loop up in the middle of the arctic circle that drops towards Hudson Bay this week and gets pulled into the Great Lakes and New England Sunday through Tuesday. It will be impressively cold aloft beneath this, so the lakes will be cranking. Pretty good chance that there's enough snow to prompt at least winter wx advisories off a few of the lakes, usually when it's as cold aloft at 500mb as what the models are depicting and the lakes are this warm there are some intense bands.

I finally tallied up my snow logs from last winter...67.8", with the highlight being 34" in January. Core summer felt short this year, with chilly weather to start June and a decent stretch of sub-70 highs with lows in the 40s/50s to end August.

I think the SPC has done a pretty great job with handling the watches so far, starting with severe watches, then a couple of non-PDS tornado watches, and now a PDS tornado watch as the threat clearly ramps up as semi-discrete supercells evolve across parts of northern AR and central/southeastern MO. The strongest forcing is across the Upper MS Valley with the strongest instability confined towards the Lower MS Valley. Activity that evolves across east central and southeastern MO, north central and northeast AR, central and southern IL, and western KY will be in the sweet spot of more moderate forcing and instability with extreme shear, giving an opportunity for semi-discrete cells to persist in a kinematic environment that supports strong tornadoes with sufficient (certainly not outstanding) thermodynamics. Activity in MS is more weakly forced and is playing out amid a moisture-rich low-level jet. While the storm mode is currently semi-discrete and the shear supports an intense tornado threat, low-level lapse rates are weak with the low-levels fairly moist. This could keep storms somewhat messy and keep many from taking off and taking full advantage of the low-level shear. While there is certainly a tornado threat (potentially strong) all the way into MS and northwestern AL this evening and tonight, the northwestern half of the PDS watch will probably be most under the gun with more uncertainty towards TN, MS, and AL.