Bubbler86

i am not sure who is "trolling" and as all I have seen is the occasional poster, myself included, join in the convo and then a new guy that keeps talking about Harrisburg as if he is the wrong forum. This "you are in the wrong forum" stuff is for the birds in most cases. I will only speak for myself when I say that anyone from the MA, NE, NYC, anywhere...is welcome to contribute to any board I am part of as we are all here for enjoyment of weather tracking and such...especially winter weather for those here now. If someone from another forum is always coming into sub forums and trying work up the crowd that is not totally cool but as you stated I have not seen that and that would be what I consider trolling.

Canderson and Blizz going to the MA and representing!

That includes sleet and ice. Snowfall maps were a bit less.

Yea, verbatim the 12z Nam is really close to this busting badly (as it pertains to snow specifically) for South PA. Funny how models seem to know where the mason dixon. So often I see cut offs right on the line. Need cad at all levels to keep it flakes.

@Voyager is going to trash my predict and hug this one.

You are risking a permaban! Lol.

I even promised myself to include you this time and then forgot. I know where Marysville is. Second event- Bliz. 2-4" with significant icing. Lollipops of the up to 6" near your house:-). Another LSV predict. Monday- Schools on two hour delay, modified morning kinder. Tuesday- Schools closed Wednesday- Schools on two hour delay, modified morning kinder.

It certainly makes my tires and cars white even when dry. Car washes are living the high life right now.

First call. Not going to search for my name list so just drawing some random names from memory First event- area wide 1 to 2 inches possibly ending as some rain in the lsv. Second event- Mag, wmsptwx-3 to 6" with significant icing Voyager, carlisle, canderson-2 to 4" with significant icing Cashtown, dax, nut-2 to 4" with moderate icing

Driving down route 70 to BWI this morning and all roads are Pre-treated and powdery white including 195 the feeder road to the airport. That is always a good sign for the LSV if those southern boys think a cutter is going to give them road issues way down here. Of course they have to worry about tonight's snow as well.

Thanks for all the details. It is not great news but late February is better than nothing. It is all we have right now I guess. At least these cutter storms have given us something to track for front end stuff vs. it simply being too warm to snow at all times....but we really need a nice clear one foot or more all snow event to make this winter decent. The MJO reversing course is a very worrying sign. We continue to have little or no activity in the gulf which means we have to fight for everything here.

My posts are going to be a bit far and between the next few days as I will be in Florida...so no Mason-Dixon line observations from me. I think that after several days of this threat being less and less ominous (and that FV3 plot showing 2 feet of a snow a few days ago did not help ala expectations too high) we really are settling in on a nice frozen event for all of PA. I think it would be hard to hope for it to stay snow at this point as almost every model is showing the main SLP being in the upper mid west in 48 hours so short of a miracle coast transfer the SSW winds are coming...if only it were colder like I said a few days ago. If it were 15 in Sayre PA and 20 in Harrisburg PA as the slug approached I think this would be an 8-12" event but instead it will be 25-30 in Sayre and 30-35 in Harrisburg so there is not much breathing room. In fact without wet bulbs drops this would be an all rain event I think. CAD is probably going to win at surface for most of the storm but even the most "caddy" (Cad fight!!) of the models is pushing 850's up to the NY border.

Here is an example from the just completed 12Z NAM which shows most of the LSV staying near freezing at the surface for the whole event but the column above does not. First map is Pivotal's snow map which shows little to no snow south of the Mason Dixon and maybe a 1-4" type snow forthe LSV. Second map is TT which shows area wide (including much of MD) 3-6" snows...same data, different algorithms.

I wish I could figure out how to live in the time frame "10-15 days" as it would be snow every other day it seems.

After falling for the TT failure at the start of winter I have found Pivotal Weather's maps to be more realistic but yea if someone shows a map for all snow until a certain point it includes all snow not just the storm du jour. Outside snow maps I think TT is much more user friendly and easier to see on mobile devices. TT's are more fun to post though as evidenced by the Wed rain event where FV3 showed 4-6" in eastern PA :-).

Saw a post about the GFS moving east by 300 miles ...I missed that one. It was on the Western side of MI at 0Z and now the Eastern side so some East but maybe 100-125 miles. It was in a similar place at 18Z. Probably the worst look. That UK snow map seems like fantasy to me as we have seen the UK cross over to the less snowy solutions in the last 36 hours over and over...UK's depiction is more something you would see with a low coming from Alabama moving East/North East vs. a western cutter. My biggest worry is the EPS and Euro keep moving the snow farther and farther north. They still show 4-8" here but the no snow line is not far from the Mason Dixon. I think that is less of an issue with temps and more an issue of the orientation of qpf and less falling here. Still think we get a plowable followed by a period of rain and temps 35-40. The Nam shows only a couple inches for the Mid and Upper part of the LSV which is worry. The TT maps for the Nam are almost all sleet and Frz. Edit-All these snow maps include the 2-3" (except the Nam of course) most forecast for Sunday night so the Tuesday event is really a 3-6" type deal vs. 4-8 like I mentioned above.

Yep and not only because it seems to have the best handle on the CAD (at least when I sent that out) but I do not share the opinion of some other posters that it is of no value. I question its short term forecasting scores but between 3 and 10 days I would argue that it has done the best recently, concerning placement of features and general sensible results, of any Global Op Prog. And I say this on the heels of reading that the GOV has dropped plans to bring the FV3 online as the primary American Global for an "indefinite" amount of time. So we have the CMC (terrible in my book), Euro, GFS, Icon, JMA and UK. Not exactly an inspiring bunch right now. Getting close to Meso time the ETA...opps I mean Nam...off to a lackluster look but I agree with you that the whole PA crew should be in line for a plowable snow right now. I think the biggest risk of it is not a wamer solution vs. the low winding up so far West that the total amount of qpf is not what we are thinking. As you alluded to before as long as it does not get too close any SSW winds will not scour out the cold as quickly as many models are suggesting.

Check out this 12Z models depiction of icing and CAD. Has the 540 line driven well North and radar shows rain but the surface temps at near or below freezing for most which indicates freezing rain though at these temps it should not be one that takes down too many power lines in the LSV. Northern PA would be for a major ice storm. Both of these are at forecast hour 99/about 10AM Tuesday.

And do not overlook the possible 1-3" event Sunday night.

45 and foggy makes for a slow forum I guess! I personally was not a big fan of the model trends yesterday afternoon and evening. Almost all guidance is converging on the second wave amping up in the Midwest which to me takes a large snow/MECS out of the equation as we are back down to CAD only. I think anything from a 4-6" event before the temps rise well above freezing to dry-slot and little precip at all is still on the table. Very similar to a few of our events we had in the last few months. FV3 and GFS are 2-4" before a deluge and temps rising between 35 and 45 LSV. There are still hold outs showing a MECS type now situation such as the UKMET shown below. This same situation is going to play out several times over the next 2 weeks and some models have lots of snow (GFS) while others have lots of rain (EURO and FV3). Welcome to the gradient wars.

Speaking of trains, this type of look is suggesting it rolls right into March. From Pacific Puke to Pacific Choo-Choo....would just prefer to see them come in a few hundred miles south of Central Oregon.

Seattle's Point and Click is snow almost every day for the next week!

@canderson mentioned it a bit ago but the lack of rain the last couple days, at least for the southern part of the state, has not been modeled well at all.

FV3 actually took a huge step back from its apocalypse snowfall I saw when I looked at it yesterday but the Euro and GFS both made encouraging changes in keeping the second wave much less phased and allowing a decent 4-8" snow here. Euro's snow maps are a bit strange so not going off those vs. assuming their would be a slug of WAA snow at the start. A better step than the models showing a Midwest blizzard yesterday. This area is golden for a plowable snow if we simply get a slug of moisture thrown over us and do not face winds from the south too quickly. FV3 from earlier