Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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We will see you around 8:30PM!
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Did you notice it got WAA snow over us/prior to any tug from the west? Would need a HUGE adjustment for us to get snow from a coastal but I would take 1-2" of white powder with a little more bump.
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No reason if you have the time. Making absolute statements about it is no good! LOL. (People saying it is definitely this or definitely that)
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Plows down for far south PA. Looks like Dt's first call.
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I agree, I see no torch but I think we have highs in the 50's and 60's before the month is out. I am not at all calling Spring but think we do have some temp variation...more so than we did through much of winter. One thing I like to look at the ensembles for is mean temps and the EPS and GEPS are pretty much AN straight through (for highs) after this week. I do not think we get to 45-50 every single day, the variability is what I am hoping for in saying we "should" have some precip chances.
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I had commented above that I think we start getting more precip chances soon (could very well be rain or snow) and that is predicated more on the old fashioned, though scientifically solid, premise that as more drastic temp changes and differences become more prevalent in late winter/early spring, precip will follow. I do not think it is wall-to-wall cold over the next 2-3 weeks.
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I think we have at least one system with some decent qpf before the month is out. Decent would be 1/4" or more.
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Well except for a very shallow wave that drops 1 to at the most 2" of snow for Southern PA next Saturday, the Euro is a snoozer. The cutter later next week even manages to skip much of this forum leaving little precip. Stark difference from the copious qpf GFS. Things get interesting after 300 but...after 300.
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If she is going to stay tied to the EC, expect a second guess map soon (down)
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It seems when we get "busy" about 1/2 dozen people from Lanco pop up. Hardees-Har-Har!
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Great story, are you sure Carl is not one of the older posters here?
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Hahah. On paper this matches more what happened this past weekend. GEM has a warmish clipper around the same time so the confidence of major changes is quite high.
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Event two next week. It will change shortly but for viewing
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It is not cold going into it either. But is our next trackable event IMO.
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Temp sensitive system moves along the south 7 days from now on the GFS. Turns to a soaking rain for most of the LSV but fall line not far away.
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GFS has a coastal storm for the taking at the time stamp below but this guy is just too late again
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That would put us number 8 then end of the month. But decent chance we seem "some" qpf on Thursday. There is also a potential coastal this time next week.
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No love on the Icon and rgem so not a lot confidence with other globals being any better.
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In fairness we were not near the WAA portion of the event which is the easy side. But if there is going to be a surprise, any potential pull would be more likely.
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I am not seeing that unless you are assuming no precip through the rest of the month
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DCA back in the game on the Nam. Will make the rest of the 12Z a tiny bit more interesting.
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Sizeable move north on the tug.
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12Z Nam coming in with the SLP down near the gulf again (bad for waa) and the 540 line in NC...so not looking like much in improvements at this point.
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This is two decent snows events in the last 48ish hours (for parts of the forum.)
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There are opportunities in the MR plus it could still snow some this Thursday even with the current depicts....with the 500 pass.
