Bubbler86

I meant for "others". Looking for advice! LOL. The Icon does not even break me out of the 40's while some other progs are 60's.

More importantly, shorts tomorrow?

I am just hoping for some combination of that high to be more like the UK or Icon (UK weaker/Icon displaced west) to allow that area of energy to the south (generous calling it a low at that point, it is in the 1010's) to feel the NS wave coming before it is so far off the coast. If the 540 line is down into SC and the NS wave is lagging, she is going get out into the ocean.

Nothing like needing a quick phase with a low 200 miles off GA to inspire confidence! LOL. Bring back the 12Z UK!

(Just my opinion) This is the point the NS trough/wave starts to affect the storm and that is really late for a massive, east coast snow storm. Note that it is a dual barrel low at this point with one area off the VA Capes and one area off GA. On the next frame the lowest area of pressure switches to the north side in response to the NS. The low does bomb out as it phases over the Flemish Cap area.

I personally do not think the NS energy has any doing in pushing that storm over Florida. If anything it is acting to pull the storm back as without it, the low exits Florida and goes east much more quickly. I saw another post in the MA thread which is spot on in my opinion, the thermal boundary which we will call the end of the High pressures influence is what is taking that low off the coast in Florida or GA. I personally think we need the HP and respective influence to back off some as to the break down of the Gfs. I still contend that played out exactly the GFS did, we see heavy snow when the low is off the Va Capes...because that very weak NS energy is there to convey it.

I actually think the it is the high coming from the N Central states causing the issue.

I personally think the "PV" coming from N Central Canada is more of an issue than NS energy but that is an issue as to why it is not turning sooner. That GFS should have droped at least 6-12" over the LSV.

This 500H look with a low off the Va Capes should have pulled precip and forcing back into the LSV IMO so this run is perfectly fine with me in literals....I do not like that the low waited to it got well off the coast to turn.

The LSV should be getting walloped at this point. Something is not right there.

We would not have asked for a better position of that low when off the VA Capes but there is no phase, and nothing to keep it going due north so we lose it on the GFS. The dry air is killer. What it is NOT is a Miller A though which is unfortunate.

Low off VA capes but dry air is keeping the precip shield very limited.

Snow on my doorstep Wed AM.

GFS looks more like the NAM (good IMO) through 84. Less confluence to the north so a possible earlier turn.

The highs at MDT on the Icon are in the mid teens for Wed and Thur next week. Those temps are right in the ball part for possible max min records at MDT.

Did Germany invade England?

You picked the NAM to show that and the 84 hr NAM is a lot more enticing than the regem was. The rrem had suppression written on it IMO. PS-You add a head and two lines for feet to that "arrow" and it could be a squiggly man enjoying a vacation in Bermuda!

He did well on the one storm in January.

Yea, that was the phase possibly before...and still is...but this entire situation is 1) Way too far out to assume good or bad 2) too much about timing on some of the progs. The UK's depiction was a much more nature major snow storm. There was a phase but we would have scored big without it.

It is there an hour ago, amwx has been doing weird things if using the web site via mobile. You go back and it looks like you did not submit a post.

I saw one prog, forget which one, which suggests someone may hit 70. Just looked at the HRRR and it is low to mid 60's.

GEPS was quite bad for the 20th Probably the worst of any models runs I have seen today. A nothing bagger.

It has climbed to 36 here. 9 degrees in 2-2.5 hours. The damn has broken.

Temp rising fast here now. Up 4 degrees in 45 min. 33 with plain rain. I am going to see over 6" of snow washed away this week between the two snows and ensuing warmth behind them.

You called this yesterday when we were discussing Canderson's party re: if it fell fast enough it would still stick though I am not sure many envisioned what happened today. Here is last nights rgem 2M map for 1PM today