Bubbler86

Nam is similar through 45. Probably would not see what the boundary is going to be until hour 70+. On another note, it was 33 when I got up this AM. It is up to 43 now.

The snow maps do not bother me and on this board in particular they seem to be popular but if someone says they see folly in posting snow maps with no science behind them/explanation of why, then I cannot argue too much as they do have a valid point (though again I am not a fan of separate boards or moderation.) Many, many, many snow maps are posted for naught if you look at it after the fact. To me the Snow maps are the fun side of the board but not fun for everyone I guess.

We were looking in the 209 corridor. Quite the different world there.

How is having a meteorological discussion of why a model is doing something a wish cast? LOL. Now if you mean the snow maps, which I do sometimes too, then carry on.

The reason you just posted, high chance of winter weather issue that are not present anywhere else.

When we were looking for a place in 2018 we looked from Adamstown to Hometown to areas up 11/15 and eventually over here...and the number one thing my wife eventually found is she wanted nothing to do with coming into the Harrisburg area from the mountains to the north.

If we get 55-65 we can probably assume the worst here AND despite the drought, the ground is quite wet at the top layer right now for smaller/more shallow trees.

Yea, spot on. The easier way to win in my opinion. Less influence from the High/TPV and we have ourselves a Secs/Mecs Miller A. Otherwise, we need the "kicker" (AKA the N/S trough) to suck the storm back as it is going to go wide with that boundary in the Carolinas.

I feel it has been a winter where the ridges have asserted themselves more than we want...and not talking the usual SER. More from the Northwest. I also feel like there have been two camps with this system so far, a classic Miller A which is wholly dependent on where the boundary is, and Miller B or hybrid type solutions. Too far out for the Meso's to show their hand on that though but if option one we need less of a push from the high and option b needs a possible collab from the N/S.

I worry that this may be a time that these warnings actually verify. We have had a string of events where the worst winds were with little or no highlighting.

The Nam is in great position to throw decent over running snows over a good portion of PA. 540 line is in VA not the Carolinas like it is on the rgem. The back stream reasons behind this are a fascinating discuss but seems people like the snow maps and final results more. The position of the high is a big reason for difference boundary positions.

Just opened one model so far this AM and it has hardly changed from yesterday 12Z except the precip field. It is a tiny bit S/E this AM which does make a difference but with all the different reasons being thrown around for when systems are or are not amping at certain locations, the Icon is a basic Miller A which turns the corner of the boundary tracks. 12Z Yesterday 6Z Today

We need something to pull if the confluence and 540 line is going to be so far south.

Like psu posted on the ma and the 540 comment here, the boundary is farther north which will lead to a much better starting position for a coastal along with waa snows. Still not my beloved Miller a though.

540 in VA is a lot better for us than the depicts with it in the Carolinas.

On the kicker discussion, which is also raging in the ma forum, what I do not get is what people would expect to happen if it was not there? I see the kicker/ns energy as the very thing that could capture this low (whether one believes if is forming on the wrong boundary or not.). I think the Gfs depiction seems quite clear in that it is forming energy on the boundary which is so very far south next week due to the advancing tpv. Without that NS wave I feel like whatever forms would be a fast moving wave that has little in the way of northward adjustment. This is for open convo, I could be totally wrong, but I have never heard the word kicker in these forums more than the last 24 hours. It seems to be a panacea to try and explain away bad model runs.

Both of them.

Back then we did not have "constant rumors" of the great pattern since our childhood. Sometimes the Interwebs take away some of the enjoyment. Growing up a 2-4" snow used to be fun and an event, now it is often a "what if'.

Thanks!

I personally agree with this assertion in why the GFS should have shown more precip back over and into the 500 low. And his other points are valid but that is not what the GFS did so there has to be a reason the shuttered the entire southern complex well into the ocean. I fear it was the influence from a stronger higher to the NW combined with a lagging NS.

The winds are going to blow in some good model runs.

When the TPV/High decides to allow it.

Is that the same Nike Nico Harrison used to work for? I think Pelinka might have said that same phrase to Nico.