Bubbler86

Thanks. I upped my post after first draft to show the major north shift.

Icon 999 low just south of the VA Capes and little snow here. Right....Das Verruckt. Icon was actually a LOT more snow here (near M/D line over into Lanco) than 12Z though.

In this case nothing is leading the way, IMO. It is models having difficulty with gauging the pattern.

It is much windier than Florida that is for sure.

Ralph Wiggum has pulled his pants back up and re-buckled.

No where near over at this point as the low is captured and moving North.

1046 High still centered in Canada at hour 81 on the Nam.

NAM is a school canceler for Wed. Kids get your shorts on for summer school.

540 line in Central VA on 63 Nam., Bueno. Snow starting in the LSV daybreak Wed.

Low is in N Central MS (at least the Northern side of it).

Through 54 I believe WAA snows are coming again on the Nam.

I actually get some of the strongest winds in the state being on the windward side of a solitary/standalone mountain range. Since I have moved here in 2018 we have had 3 gusts over 70 MPH on a very high end anemometer down the street from me. Info tries to tie us to the Blue Ridge chain but technically we are stand alone.

If anything the Nam looks better through 42 with less confluence (IMO) but it is minor as to differences.

Nam through 27 is close enough to not merit any major changes so far.

Yes, it is lightning with moderate thunder. Rain ++

One model had ITT getting to 67. Another one 65. Calling Ruin to fix this. We actually would have preferred that for our snow chance later this week.

We only managed a 52 bagger over here and it is down to 43 now.

I looked at the GFS and it is snowing in the north corner of SC on Wed. Without a capture we are too far North for that scenario.

Yea, entering Franklin County right now. Like Carlisle said, the high win warning has been a nothing so far so this may kick it into gear.

I agree, I am not sure why he keeps saying the same thing over and over...and this time he is talking about ensembles which are NOT forecasts vs. means. Does not "mean" they cannot be way off as to individual members but the mean maps are never forecasts. Using a mean map to assume results is like counting weights of 100 people walking into a building then "forecasting" that the next person will be a mean of them all. In many cases these are also members purposely fed false info to see how it would affect the end result. Their entire goal in life is to cross check the op's. If the mean is way off from the op's (upper air stuff, not snow maps) then that places the op's depict into question.

@CarlislePaWx left my house and it was 51. By the time I got about 10 miles to the east in the eastern foothills of the South mountain range now in Adams county it was 33 with an ice storm in progress with all elevated surfaces iced over....a couple hundred feet below my elevation back west.

Low in Central GA. A good one. PV/Center of high still sitting in Canada. Note how the contours are pointing NE up through PA but still East to West down in VA. That will limit how far north it can get at this stage (without a phase). The Nam will be a fairly decent snow storm in the LSV. GL with the other models at 12Z. My PBB work is done for the afternoon.

Most of PA (2/3ish) has light to moderate snow mid morning Wed on the 75 Nam panel.

Nam at 60 is holding fairly steady. I would think this will lead to some waa snows into PA again when the panels get into the later 70's. Worlds difference in where the weak S/S system is here vs. the souther models.