frd

This is just crazy. First the almost - 6 SD dive in a few days, and even more intriguing is the recent reversal - from the AO going positive in a couple weeks, instead possibly going back down the third week of February. Continued blocking and colder scenarios in a back drop of expanding snow North America cover.

Wow, get some snow cover next week and may be able to keep a while, it if things time up correctly. Wonder the expanding cryosphere effect on future model runs .

Thanks for pointing that out, but EPS did look better. Hoping the colder snowier version wins out, it will be tough, but in the realm of possibilities.

Wow, had no idea it was that high out there in psu land. Snowing pretty good here in Middletown, much better rates than the last storm. Very pretty out there.

As you are aware, trends might be suggesting colder and more snow, versus ice. Here is another way to look at it in this animation. Focus on our area, not so much Virginia and NC in the time loop. Also, many disturbances in the flow as well.

What a progression. Tasty!

Some of this falls here.

I would truly think, and hope, that based on the pattern at some point during the next 15 days we will have an all snow event with high ratio snowfall.

@psuhoffman what do you make of euro taking pv Wesr ? I

Nice discussion by Mount Holly on the threat for the period Feb 11 th to the 13 th. Another brief round of high pressure is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday, but the next southern-stream system migrates rapidly eastward across the central U.S. during this time frame. With subtly increased downstream ridge amplification, the Gulf of Mexico should be open for business for this next system. With improving dynamics via a strengthening anticyclonic upper- level jet in the Northeast, widespread lift should generate a broad region of precipitation across the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians by Wednesday night. Low pressure will strengthen in vicinity of the somewhat zonally-oriented baroclinic zone across the Ohio Valley eastward to the central Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. The GFS and ECMWF have begun to converge on a solution in which translation of low pressure occurs to the Mid-Atlantic coast by Friday. This event has many characteristics of a significant winter storm for the Northeast with all of the complications we know and love to hate in Mid-Atlantic winter-weather forecasting. There will be antecedent high pressure to the north (albeit in a somewhat transient sense) and slow-to-erode cold air in our region, a strong fetch of moisture from lower latitudes in advance of the developing cyclone, and phasing of the northern stream and southern stream that initiates well west of the coast. Of course, there will also be significant variations in the evolving low near the coast, substantial warm/moist advection introducing precipitation type concerns on the south side of the system, and timing issues both with the initial onset of precipitation (typically too fast) and with the potential dry slot (with systematic model biases sure to play a role here). A lot to digest, certainly, but the bottom line is that another impactful winter storm may occur in at least portions of our area by week`s end. Stay tuned.

@CAPE We talked before about the warming Atlantic. Very interesting, may explain why some warmer ocean fish are now closer to shore, and also the effect of the NW Atlantic anomaly on weather patterns, storm tracks and hurricanes.

Is this a new tool ? I recently saw it posted for the first time under the NBM reference. Thanks for the breakdown.

@CAPE Best image of my hood and the extreme upper Eastern shore ( maybe you are in the lower left corner of the image ? ) I am close to the Central DE banding.

Subsidence Cool to look at, but almost impossible to forecast. Its doing a good job, but lets hope we both get under banding. Meanwhile, I am still trying to figure out the 360 hour Euro snowfall mean. Deciding whether to stock pile food stores.

From Jack Interesting observation but states the storm may yet trend NW due to possible model mishandling.

Wow ! A lower SD forecasted today, then yesterday.

Same here, beautiful. Was totally sunny at sunrise, now there is this arc of cirrus with feathery wisps above, a work of art from mother nature. You can tell something is coming.

How many days to resolve the reconsolidation? Any idea ?

@MillvilleWx perfect call !

You had mentioned the Eastern Shore, can you share your thoughts for Northern Delaware based on the latest data ? Thanks

Comparison, more amped.