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The upcoming cold is impressive, too bad its dry. Modeling is giving some hints of more active STJ way out in time. Maybe HM's window hits in the very late Jan to Feb 10 th time frame. Tonight Rain likely before 2am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 34. West wind around 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Saturday A chance of rain and snow before 1pm, then a chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 19. M.L.King Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.

@mattie g will appreciate the above. Moving on to the AO, it looks to make a deeper negative dive. PNA after spiking not really looking too bad, as for the NAO, neutral but would not be surprised if it trends negative late month. Snowfall oppurtunities will be there, however, needing extra patience in a Nina, even if we are about to flip to a Nino soon.

This is common in Ninas, as most already know. A hard hobby tracking snow threats, especially in a Nina.

Like you said previously, way too many things need to go right to get significant snow here. Winter Nor'Easters and benchmark storms have gone the way of the dinosaurs.

RIP

Nice to see the AO staying negative. - EPO later

A warm day this Friday

The ^ is near the time of the elongated PV. moving SE towards Hudson Bay.

LOL

Canada really warms up end of the week due to the jet extension. Some anomalies there over 30 degrees above normal.

Warm wet, cold dry. We need the rain though.

A rollercoaster of highs and lows.

I agree, the h5 is the way to go that far out. Believe the odds might be present for a decent event as you mentioned, or even a higher level event between 1/15 to 1/31. A Winter Storm Warning would be nice.

Minus the squall the cold dry predominates the pattern. Hope to cash in third week and 4th week of January. I like the looks in the HL as the cold should intensify and hopefully meets up with moisture later in the month.

Venture to this thread at your own risk. I am still positive towards mid month and the second half of Jan.

I get it, but December was the coldest December since 2010, had snow showers, snow squall, decent snow event here, measured 4.5 inches. The coldest and snowiest part of the winter may still be ahead.

Complex pattern, more clarity by the weekend. Looking forward to the afternoon EPS.

Just reflecting on the improvement in the PNA region however once the negative EPO arrives I agree we do not want an overly positive PNA. As @CAPE has mentioned we have done well with small to medium events during previous winters which featured a negative EPO pattern. There's no reason to think we cannot take advantage of this time period later in the month for snowfall opportunities. What is also encouraging to know is that the polar vortex is not likely to strengthen significantly and even though the Arctic oscillation is forecast to rise from standard deviations of -3 it will likely head back down again according to the models

General concensus is still up with the PNA as of today's update.

The ECMWF AIFS Ens I heard are doing well. This shows we are back in business by the 15th. GEFS AI at the very bottom.

Wow that was awesome. Winds to at least 35 with crazy snowfall rates. Came in like a freight train. Worth getting up for. Heaviest snow I have seen in a long time.

Same here.

We have seen this before as well. The - NAO linking with the WAR, likely due to the SE ridge/WAR becoming more prominent due to the reaction from the Pac jet extension.

The Pac jet extension is a bit too robust leading to the warm up. There is a ton of heat energy in the Western and SW Pac. The warm up was actually spoken about about 10 days ago, ( although some thought it would not happen since other warm ups have trended less and less over time ) however this time it appears likely it will be warming up ahead of the - EPO/ +TNH pattern. Goes to show you the Pac is King, the current - NAO and the - AO are useless when the Pac does not cooperate.

Oh my