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frd

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  1. frd
    MJO phase significance changes based on the three month period you are in.
  2. frd
    Interesting post by @bluewave One of the main issues with the longer range model forecasts for the MJO beyond 10 days is that the ensembles weaken the convective signal too much. This is also true with the RMM charts. So some of the posts on twitter stating that the MJO will quickly weaken or progress to 8-1-2 are basing that on an an inherent model bias. So it’s no surprise that the convection in the warm phases this week is verifying more intense in the warm phases than the runs back in late November were indicating. This is one of the reasons ensemble forecasts have been correcting warmer for December than they were indicating later in November. So even if the MJO can eventually get over into phase 8-1-2, that is also a warmer signal from December into January with an El Niño. New run Old run
  3. frd
    Interesting MJO read from Don S: <The latest MJO forecasts show a slightly longer passage through Phases 4-6 than had been shown two days earlier (Bluewave has discussed the role of sea surface temperature anomalies in foreshadowing such an outcome): The Week 3 CFSv2 (12/18-24) and ECMWF (12/18-25) are very warm in the East (>3°C/5.4°F above normal). Were blocking to break down, the possibility of one or more days in the 60s in the region (maybe even 70° in the Baltimore-Washington area) during that timeframe would increase markedly. Beyond Week 3, the ECMWF weeklies still show cooler than normal readings in the East to start January. However, skill levels beyond two weeks are low. The latest ENSO data shows that a basinwide strong El Niño event continues. The latest ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C. The latest ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C. The AAM is poised to go positive in coming days and then strongly positive through at least late December. A positive AAM often indicates patterns consistent with El Niño events. El Niño cases favor warm Decembers in the East, though there are exceptions. With winter largely sleeping through the medium-term, New York City's and Philadelphia's record streaks without their having seen 1" or more daily snowfall will continue for the foreseeable future. New York City's ongoing streak will very likely surpass the existing record streaks at Newark (661 days) and Trenton (664 days).>
  4. frd
    Like clockwork. However, I believe phase 7 is the warmest MJO phase. Just need to move forward, which appears we will. Even though the modeling has trended warmer sensing the changes in the Pac, along with a more negative PNA versus neutral, is that the AO continues to be forecasted very negative, and remaining so for the medium term, rather unusual, but bodes well for us very late month and in Jan. and Feb.
  5. frd
    Last year we had an extreme - AO and a extreme - NAO that resulted in no snow for my region. The Pac is king in my opinion Even Don S thought we would be getting a huge snow event along with Bluewave, and nothing ever happened of consequence. The extreme - AO is normally a great indocator of snow potential, but recently that indice has not held to its historical importance and value when predicting a window for a SECS.
  6. frd
    The usual warmth starting around the December 18 th to 20 th has been a fixture in the East the last several years. When you look at Atlantic ocean temps and the very warm Fall we have had it is easy to see that September is a summer month and Decembers are generally more fallish lately than wintery. On the flip side, March will be the wild card. Looking at the latest data regarding the MJO and its progression and Nino SSTs it appears December overall should start to be modeled warmer and the holiday period that had some potential may not work out that way. Sounds like a typical Nino.
  7. frd
    May trigger a SSWE Not that we need it, but it is interesting. Latest AO observation forecast looks favorable for an early season weak polar vortex.
  8. frd
    Amplitude might be trender higher in recent MJO forecasts. Late month continues to look interesting.
  9. frd
    Still thinking late month has potential.
  10. frd
    Cold initially favoring Asia and Europe, then as the MJO progresses, along with favorable changes in Pac., arctic airhopefully makes it way towards us near the holidays, along with increased odds of storminess. Expansive cold centered near December 9 th over Europe and Asia.
  11. frd
    Pac jet intensifies near Japan and causes the previously modeled Western ridge to go poof. Again the very fast Pac flow overpowers. This goes back to conversations from 2018-19 regarding the Western Pac super warm pool , causing increased warmer MJO phases, which possibly last longer. Plenty of times the last several winters where the fast Pac flow erroded Western ridge/ + PNAs, and also flooded Canada with Pac puke airmasses. Hopefully as we go deeper into the winter season this concern may reduce, allowing a more typical Nino Jan. and Feb to take hold.
  12. frd
    More realistic potential versus the never correct Euro Control run.
  13. frd
    Wow, an area along and West of the lower Eastern Shore with 70 % probability of above normal snowfall. Our area firmly in the 40 % probability of above normal snowfall. Looks hopeful.
  14. frd
    SECSyyyyy Me like !!!
  15. frd
    SSTs of Nino region 4 have really increased recently. This Nino is still ramping up.
  16. frd
    May emerge in phase 8 at a low amplitude prior to the holidays, meanwhile the AO looks awesome as we head into December.
  17. frd
    And so it begins
  18. frd
    The trends with the AO have been remarkable in regards to forecasts of such a deep dive into the negative. -3.0 deviation forecast for early December and no real rebound afterwards of significance. Just need moisture and maybe we score after the 7th.
  19. frd
    If using similiar rollovers would that not lead to/and or support a higher probability of MECS later in Jan and early Feb ? I am liking the overall trends here with the Pac and the HL. Hopefully, no fakeouts this winter season.
  20. frd
    Do you believe the pattern evolving with an improved Pac leads to a cold stormy outlook for the East in mid December, leading up to and including the holidays?
  21. frd
    Better odds than last December when the block was further South and the West Coast set up was slightly different. AO progged to be diving just prior to this time.
  22. frd
    Last December also had a great Greenland block. Maybe just bad luck. But to me the Pac rules.
  23. frd
    Can you imagine the excitement if we transition to colder will possible snow towards the end of December to coincide with the winter solstice I have been waiting for that for many many years.
  24. frd
    Resulting in this from the GFS / GEFS for early December. Hoping for a favorable look up top as we near later December, or even sooner, to better coincide with mid to late December snowfall climo.
  25. frd
    Looks like cross polar flow there. Nice Pac. No signs of a - NAO yet. But, the Pac will trump the Atlantic.
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