frd

flatter ridge , then pop , ying yang

Fits the persistance of low pressure tracks for the past several years. Inland to our NW.

When is the MECS ?

You have had a hot hand @Heisy Looks like may need to wait for my area until after the 14 th, or maybe 2024. The constant inland tracks persist. Nothing new here.

@psuhoffman when in your opinion does the threat window end ? I was thinking the 20 th, what our your thoughts ? By the way, I am glad you are excited. I hope I can excited too at my lattitude in the lower lands.

From Don Sutherland : Posted 1 hour ago The latest ECMWF weekly forecast for March 13-20 maintained the longstanding cold idea. That might offer the Mid-Atlantic region its best opportunity for at least some snowfall.

The NYC forum

Lets hope not, but hope it plays in our favor.

Nino cometh

The threat window

Some posters up North are fearful of surpression despite the modeling and recent history of far NW tracks.

I really hope we can break the 3-year consistency of inland coastal lows, or coastal huggers. Going to take a few more days to get clarity on this I imagine.

Maybe for once the Eastern areas might be favored. Thanks for all your updates.

Day After Tomorrow

WOOF ! MECS

Forecasts of Mountain torque and angular momentum off the charts per HM.

It is sad. A hobby directly tied to AGW, and this hobby's ROI has been declining in recent years if you are a snow lover. Hopefully, we score something before the never ending humidty and heat move in.

Going to get a seizure

I wonder how the temperatures compare to the March 2018 blocking episode. HM had commented that the progression of the blocking this March compared to 2018 is very similar the only difference is the air temperatures in the source regions of North America are not as cold,however, maybe that has changed in the last couple days.

What is the Ralph mode is that mean suppression?

I feel like Charlie Brown getting ready to kick the football from Lucy

If we wind up with something similar to what happened in the southern hemisphere winter the PV should not be able to recover quickly.

Interesting high amplitude MJO phase 7 and 8. Haven't seen that in a long time.

Every single snow map projection this year and last year, have been totally useless. They have almost zero value based on what has fallen. Most times they simply show climo snowfall and the other times they are grossly incorrect.

Persistence in this case has been ongoing for the last several years. The majority of storms have been either coastal huggers, inland runners or simply cutters. The Atlantic is not our friend , neither is the Pac. Warm SSTs and feedback has reinforced the SE ridge. It will take an anomalous well timed event to achieve snowfall in our region. HM had mentioned that the progression of this block is similiar to 2018, however, in 2018 the airmass in the North America's source region was colder. I imagine we get one last chance mid month.