frd

Persistence in this case has been ongoing for the last several years. The majority of storms have been either coastal huggers, inland runners or simply cutters. The Atlantic is not our friend , neither is the Pac. Warm SSTs and feedback has reinforced the SE ridge. It will take an anomalous well timed event to achieve snowfall in our region. HM had mentioned that the progression of this block is similiar to 2018, however, in 2018 the airmass in the North America's source region was colder. I imagine we get one last chance mid month.

That is significant coming from you. Persistence rules, including the semi permanent WAR/SE ridge. One chance mid-month, but even that may not happen.

WAR overpowers the the block. Shorter wavelengths don't help either, but they should. When persistence has featured warmth why think it's going to change. You still need help from the Pac, one positive feature nowadays is not enough for snow.

HL NAM doesn't look good in the long range, plus the effects of the SSWE is still very much uncertain. Might take up to 25 days to deliver a SSWE snowfall event and even if we get a West based NAO block it does not gaurantee snowy outcomes at our lattitude. Persistance needs to be broken and so far the normal crummy caveats apply.

Is it the base state or the bass ? ? ?

Modoki Nino may not deliver if the Pac basin SST profile doesn't set up correctly. I imagine it all depends on the anomalies and location. The grass here is still green and some bulbs have already sprouted through the soil. The 70 degrees next week will really start the thoughts of Spring.

No, the drum is not busted, the tom tom drums are beating to a continuation of the warmer results in the East. Not sure why you want to bring up the 80's and 90's. It is clearly evident the West Pac has changed and the MJO hyper warm phase is in place, not to mention other factors including the NW Atlantic warm pool.

Simple, the base state. Unstoppable the last three years and getting stronger. Any questions please direct to psu.

Pretty clear its over and has been since even before the late December arctic invasion. I have given into the psu snow rational posts and it has enlightened me, as I feel relaxed seeing this winter just go away. Only issue is that we may see a lot more of these winters in the years ahead.

Excellent !

Incredible multi post read, you might to get a coffee

Pretty loop, makes me feel like its summer, not winter.

YES PLEASE

What about Feb. ? Maybe don't ask. '

Ocean temps in the upper 40 s off NJ. , way above normal in certain locations. If Feb or March doesn't offer a period of deep cold SSTs will remain above normal and primed for an early beach season. If I can't ski I mine as well surf.

Yep, it's the base state. Some here deny it.

If you build it they will come

I can see this happening ............................................. and I am not high

Still to early to tell about the very end of the month, but this post by Griteater makes a good point about opposing forces, at least at the end of the month. Posted 1 hour ago A few thoughts on the pattern ahead... The jet in the E Pac is going to collapse over the next 5-6 days. Meanwhile, there will be a new jet extension in the W Pac that kicks out off E Asia beginning on day 3 (Jan 14). As we go out in time into the last 10 days of Jan, there are going to be competing forces that will likely play a role in determining how much this next jet extension pushes east. The MJO tropical forcing is likely to become active in the Indian Ocean (Phase 2-3) which is a setup that favors limited jet extension, leading to a -PNA pattern. In contrast, the developing height anomaly pattern over Asia of ridge in west & central Asia and trough in E Asia is one that will favor surface high pressure systems dropping down into E Asia, which typically leads to momentum being added into the Pac Jet as low pressure systems exit E Asia and head toward the Aleutian Islands, leading to a -EPO and/or +PNA pattern. I'd say I'm 50/50 on it at the moment in terms of how this will lean for the last week of Jan into the beginning of Feb.

Maybe we can tap into a small portion of this deep arctic air late month, when the Pac turns more favorable. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=62;105;2&l=temperature-2m

The more snow cover that gets wipes away up North the worse for us as we head deeper into Jan. Maybe something out of the ordinary will occur that leads to a wintery March. I don't have high hopes for that, but we will see.

I have adjusted my expectations down to zero for this year, if I get some snowfall I will be happy. Year after year I can see the difficulty in getting snowfall in the Northern Mid Atlantic. Also, looking around it is just not here any longer. Ski resorts suffering in the NE, record warmth in many locations in the US , across the pond it is very warm. Frustrating to say the least. I love tracking snow potential, but the ROI and heart break at times makes me grumpy, so I have learned to temper things and enjoy whatever the weather may bring.

BAMWX seems surprised it was going to get warm. Hey should I go with " base state " or what about AI or maybe Goblin mode.

Even if this happens it would be too late and highly unpredictable as to the target zone.

Interesting outcomes should an event unfold.