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The MJO is connected to other weather teleconnections, The MJO phase 8 cold and snow, by itself is not a a guaranteed correlation in the East , especially outside of New England according to @burgwx. This was an interesting read, as I already knew the MJO is just one of many players, but this post below by Tomer takes that point home. FROM Tomer Burg @burgwx < there’s no strong nor even close to a guaranteed correlation between MJO phase 8 & cold/snow pattern in the East. Besides the strongest correlation being in New England with a lower correlation elsewhere, the MJO isn’t the sole driver of global weather patterns & in this case there’s too much working against the establishment of a colder pattern, including the lack of sufficient cold across southern Canada — the source region for our upcoming air masses is warmer than average over Canada, which would do little to favor more than transient periods of near-below normal temps before trending warmer again. > >

I posted skill score yesterday, it is doing badly.

Yes, many folks were.

Better score soon because record warmth might be in store for later in the month.

Crazy what a hit the cryosphere has taken in North America. Was at the highs in early November, but in the last couple weeks falling off a cliff.

GFS skill scores having a recent decline.

Yuck to rain ! An East Coast Front loaded winter without snow fits a La Nina in the new base state.

Agree. Depending on the source the ideas in the HL and strat differ. For example Judah And this from Simon opposite view .........

Really thought the SPV would weaken late month, but it appears it wants to get stronger again. Goes against the idea of what happened in December with a - 4.0 AO, happening again later in the season. Will need to check back in mid month to see what transpires.

Brings my seasonal snow total from the Euro Control to roughly 36 inches. I have measured zip on the ground to date. Also, even with some PV attacks via heat flux it means very little. Cold air source is a big concern and the super warm SST signature off New England remains.

@psuhoffman will be happy.

Agreed, good point. Hard to associcate this pattern / La Nina to past analogs, even with some give and take. Due to the changing background states and warmer climo this winter may end on a non-traditional note by mid to late March. We should get at least some clarity on this possibilty by the end of Jan.

This is interesting from Don S. Unlike in New York City where no measurable snowfall through December 31st is uncommon and has a strong correlation with January snowfall, in Washington, DC such outcomes are more common. There is also a lower correlation with the January outcomes. For the 23 prior cases with no measurable snowfall through December 31st, mean January snowfall was 6.1" and median January snowfall was 3.3". However, 5/23 (22%) January cases saw 10" or more snowfall. January 1987 had the most with 20.8". 3/23 (13%) January cases had no measurable snowfall. The January cases with 10" or more snowfall were: 1912: 16.9" 1987: 20.8" 2000: 14.5" 2016: 18.8" 2022: 12.3"

Isn't that climo based for a 46 day snowfall forecast. I have seen double that amount without any snow in my area during the next 46 days.

Up North the same outcomes, however, have to wonder about recent events and climate change, snapping the other way towards colder and snowier. Certainly seems a below average snowfall winter is in store according to the database. To achieve above normal snowfall this winter we need a STJ to appear in Jan and Feb, along with sustained cold. ( image below courtesy Don S. ) As mentioned by others colder weather should move into the East after Jan. 7 th. I am going to go against LESS SNOW analogs and feel that the Pac improves, - NAO returns and the AO goes very negative by later Jan. We most likely do not get a above snowfall season, but a normal season may still be possble. This view is in the minority, but I feel major changes are underway in the HL shortly, and in Asia that will promote improvements in the West. My concern is how long a better pattern lasts once we get into it. A normal transition period will need to happen.

Unless I am very tired, it appears the GFS may eventually trend to it. Also, HM said he feels there is room for things to come together next week. Thats good enough for me at the present time. From HM > " This timeline makes more sense, on a larger scale sense, than the 12/23 threat since that comes with the Siberian express. Not impossible to get favorable trends with this next week. " >

An improvement with this morning's run. Maybe I can take advantage of the warmer waters in the C and D canal , ha ! A C&D Canal snow streamer. I am very desperate!

WAR on the move and the Atlantic ocean SSTs still rather warm. I could say that HM thinks any PV strengthening is temporary, and that we will get a reload latter, but after this fiasco I am going to chill out and wait for better days. When psu and the Euro gives me the green light then I will Woof. LOL

New climo worries no doubt. The warm pool is killing us and has been for years. Add to that the lack of a 50/50 and ideal ridge placement out West and we fail. On paper the pattern looks great, but when you look deeper the little things are preventing us from scoring. The little cause cause huge implications. We just finished the first 15 days of December with a record - AO and ideal block North of Alaska, but we fail again. I imagine in the future I will not to get too excited when the indicies look awesome because it means very little at out lattitude. I admit I was wrong, I was very confident we would score at least a WSW critieria storm. Later this month faces the same issues of now. We might exit December with very little snow, such sadness.

Yes, he posted a composite of KU storms. Thats a little unfair, especially when very few KU happen in the East during when you have a Nina.

Eric Webb is maintaining this is a nothing burger for the East. From Eric: < This just flat out isn't a good setup for a big coastal snowstorm in the NE US & hasn't looked like one for several days, despite all the snow output from the GFS & GEFS. Sure, you could get some snow out of it on the backend because of how strong/deep the arctic air mass is, but this isn't a good look for a big storm for the 95 corridor. -NAO & big OH Valley trough is there, but no 50-50 low anywhere in sight and the ridge in the western US has been too far west for at least the 4 days of model runs (even on the GEFS) >> Interior & Great Lakes very very heavily favored. I highly doubt that changes enough to matter at all here. > .

Like Eric, he could still be wrong. But, that means the WPC is wrong and the Euro. So, make your own assumptions. I would love the GFS be correct.

Would be a holiday gift if the GFS doesn't fold to the Euro like usually does.

Hearing that the ICON is trending better in Alaska presently.