frd

I am getting older by the day

PV destruction = self sustaining - NAO = Davis Strait blocking = cold and in time.

Just cold, nothing to get hyped about on the snow front. Maybe after this period there might be something.

NAO is dropping at that time, as the NAO block starts to rebuild then forecast to retrograde Westward.

Soooo many things need to go right to get snow here, even when you have the coldest airmass in the Northern hemisphere centered over the Eastern US. Maybe once we get closer to Feb 10 th to the 13 th we have a chance at undercutting energy entering the West Coast, or maybe not. At least we got one decent storm, got to use the snowblower.

Mike Thomas@MikeTFox5 · 9h For those asking about a warm up...this is a tricky question as well. Strong & relentless stratospheric warming ongoing and expected to remain up near the polar region right through the first half of February, which will likely continue polar blocking and keep cold temps coming our way through at least the middle of the month. AI models offer some home with the western ridge breaking down beyond next weekend, allowing more zonal (west-to-east) pacific flow and allowing temps to soften. AI guidance suggest middle 40s possible around this time...but a lot of the other ensembles do not agree. Many are keeping 40s away until we get beyond the midpoint of the new month. That seems a little extreme in my opinion though...I think it's somewhere in between. Think we probably crack the 40°F mark the week of 2/8 but I'm not seeing anything that screams sustained above normal temperatures anytime soon.

Wow, I would go a winter without any snow just to experience this the following winter, assuming this forecast becomes reality. RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 141 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 NCZ015>017-031-032-102-VAZ095>098-100-524-525-300600- /O.EXT.KAKQ.WS.A.0002.260131T0600Z-260202T0000Z/ Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach- Northampton-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 141 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 12 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 to 60 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northeast North Carolina and eastern and southeast Virginia. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible and may make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Strong winds could cause tree damage. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&

Make it on the 4 th

The cold has been very impressive, even more so with the snow cover, such a deep winter scene that has lasted days. Yet, it seems that snowfall has not met expectations, at least in my book. Certainly the cold is not done yet, and the AO domain remains blocky with yet another PV weakening. Thinking the best overall time period for additional snowfall here is from Feb 6 th to the 28 th, after that there are signs that blocking eases, wavelenghts change and the cold may weaken.

Next year is a Nino most likely, but the QBO will be the opposite direction. However, I still like the idea of increased blocking.

These guys wrote the revenge code for the GFS.

That is an awesome question, I'm waiting on a reasonable explanation if there is one.

We have failed many times in the past with wave spacing issues. I believe more so in a complicated Nina Northern stream dominated pattern. Thanks for the detailed explanation.

The cold continues.

Jim Cantore@JimCantore · 38m An east coast storm will evolve over the weekend as jet streams phase together to create very deep low pressure off the east coast. This is a whole different animal than the last storm, but COASTAL IMPACTS like COASTAL FLOODING, OVERWASH, and BLIZZARD are all still in play especially the 757 and eastern NC as well as Cape Cod and the Islands. At this time it appears most of the worst impacts could be east of i95. This does not mean there won't be snow in parts of the southeast as the upper parts of the storm create lift and pump out lighter snows across the Mid-South and the Mid-Atlantic. Even some areas that are dealing with crippling ICE and power outages can see some SNOW. Various models still have a variety of solutions so there is still a lot of fine tuning to go. All these low positions below are for 12z (7am) Sunday morning.

GFS is known to push the baroclinic boundary too far off the East Coast at long range during the winter months. We may be seeing this now only for it to correct in 24 to 72 hours.

Are those amounts considered a robust signal at this time range for the blend of models, aka NBM ?

Juicy

Noah Bergren@NbergWX · 12h It would appear somewhat clear we are locked into this pattern now of big cold and winter weather events in the eastern U.S. for a while yet. Euro AI holds, even strengthens this pattern once we get into the first 10 days of February. This is the upper level pattern Feb 2. to Feb. 7. Lots of cold in the east with this. It may not be until the 2nd half of February until we finally get the persistent trough out of the east coast. I hope you like cold.

It even nailed the snow further North versus what was a NC and VA HECS, and mixing issues. Did awesome !

Correct, had the general idea 5 days before.

Delicate balance due the Northern jet, hence keep expectationas in check, but the potential is really off the charts for this possible event.

Ominous radar . Pouring sleet here at 20 F.

Oh my