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Based on the conversation and his other posts I think he means, bad as in deep winter,cold and snow. and think he is referring to the end of December. Almost seems that he shares the same weather/pattern drivers, globally and strat-wise, as does Tom, @Isotherm . If he and Tom are correct expect a very short relaxation period and then a stormy, white holiday period and beyond That was my interpretation.

Well, thats great to hear, I did posted that a little while ago, but I was reading the entire thread and came across this . I feel you might enjoy. ( unless you saw it too ) . I have read HM every day for the last 15 years , back to Wright Weather days, and dial up, and it is not often HM will allude to a weather period as possibly being "bad-ass "

Back to weather for a second :-) This is all I needed to hear, now Isotherm and HM on the same page..............

- EPO please ......

There has been a lot of change and variability with the cycling as posted by @griteater He has an awesome post in the long range in the SE forum.

@Isotherm Tom's recent update was inspiring that the relax interval will not be as bad as modeled. The last 24 to 48 hours seems to lend him support on that front .

If this causes a PV displacement looking here it would seem the worse impact is in Eurasia. But also the Extreme Eastern part of North America. Not sure the outcome, @psuhoffman had nicely stated a few days ago, the impact areas of these events change. Sometimes Europe gets it, Cold and snow, sometimes we do, many times Siberia does. I also read the splits / SSWE although rare seem to impact Eurasia the worse, while displacements effect us more. This seems like a displacemernt to me, yet the coldest anomalies seem to target and deepen over Eurasia. and the other side of the globe but we still get some effect here too. When a reader posted that question to Judah, he felt here in NA the impact might be a Jet stream far to the South with Wintery potential in December, but even Judah was not sure.

Seems the background state supports this and and the GEFS has been doing well. If anything, as I posted in previous days, it appears that these warming events are growing in depth and duration, the closer we get to the present, at least so far that seems to be case.

I thought I read from Ryan Maue that at times the FV3 was at times neck and neck with the Euro op in verification scoring. Whether that was over a short period of time or in a certain background state, not sure. It seems at the minimum it is better than the GFS, I also think @WxUSAF might have commented on it as well that it is somewhat better.

If anything December will be interesting to see what transpires up North . Seems the wave 2 activity is forecasted to increase.

Continuing the theme, colder, warming delayed and or muted. Maybe looking ahead beyond this is a shorter period of moderation. I think any strat impact is still not going to show it's hands yet in the models for later December. Of note as well are the solar winds that HM talked about last night. 2009 was such an anomaly. But, I see we are trending down nicely the last 12 months.

I stumbled upon this just now, but read about this issue earlier today from @Typhoon Tip in the New England forum. I say beware of the Euro weeklies because of this.

Great update Isotherm, makes a lot of sense! And maybe your progression could lead to a snowy period around the holidays as we come up towards the later part of the month.

A follow up to the early and mid part of December .

Nice animation, looking at this for sensible weather I watch near the 11th to 16 th.

Snow cover continues to impress and continues to pile up too acrosss North Amercia ! Considering how slow things started out, very remarkable to see this !

Ventrice always pulls out some interesting Pac stuff

Makes sense ! Maybe the best months for total snowfall could be Jan and March. Anything is possible. I like March 1958 by the way.

Interesting

All good points psu. Question, why do you think the MJO which looked great 24 to 48 ago ( was forecasted going into phase 8 then 1 and then 2 I believe ) has suddenly changed and is now forecasted to go onto the COD ? Puzzling ......

To Russia with Love Hopefully in Jan, Feb or March we get our turn !

Thanks Bob, most long range mets I follow are saying no way it can stay there, and it is not the end to numerous good winter forecasts. So, I hope they are correct. Still, if we really warm up, it will be a negative for some seasonal forecasts that had December in the East either cold or normal. Time will tell.......or like you said Bob, we will know more in about 2 weeks :-)

Ah true. I hope it comes to reality. At least blocking is across all modeling, a good sign.

Bob you think this is simple par for the course, as we have been cold for a while, and a bit snowy, now time for a relax. Do you view this crap Pac setting up as a means to an end ? Like we need to have a relax and warm up and maybe late December shapes up better ? El Nino Decembers are hardly ever great. Just based on November, I would naturally guess this December turns out warmer. Maybe not the entire month, looks cold early and then again maybe late month we flip. How things transpire during Dec. may lead to a colder and stormier Jan too. Not sure how a 2 week or more warm spell in December effects any forecasted " typical " Jan thaw. Maybe we roll into a period of cold and snow that lasts a while. We might be in uncharted waters as so few analogs really fit this winter coming up.

Hmmm, nice to see more attempts coming at the PV. Maybe in time a more robust series of waves. As John states the anomaly has been increasing in forecasts. I like the word anomaly, it reminds me of the Matrix :-)