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Gift card would be cool .... I love coffee :-)

Never really thought about the role of cyclonic wave breaking and the location of the TPV.

Bob, if in future EPS runs, we see heights lower in the SE and off the SE coast what would be the implications regarding the storm threat? Would it mean a further South transfer, or is that too simple a presumption, or even an incorrect outcome? I know heights would react to changes upstream as well, such as the 50/50, TPV location, the NAO, etc. We have had that look off the SE coast for a while. It waxes and wanes.

Well, I am still totally fine with the storm, after the storm after the storm scenario, as mentioned earlier today. At least things are not boring. An active pattern continues.

yeah, psu mentioned that possibility. Still way to early to make any conclusions.

Very profound, I like, and it is true. A couple of weeks from now and this might have been a different outcome for us. What a crappy latitude I live at.

This is right around the time period when both the AO and even the NAO may both be negative. More support for the AO to be negative. Ever so slightly, the run up to xmas is improving to a degree. However, whether the models have it figured out correctly is impossible to say at this time. Extreme volatility is more likely, but there is some support for a - NAM state and if the wave break occurs and works in our favor we might be shoveling.

Very timely post by severeweatherblog Expect rather abrupt model changes continuing, and going forward, due to several competing factors. A difficult time to model coming up for sure.

Some cool stuff going on with the NAM state, also today's CPC ensembles has trended better yet again with a more so - AO.

Eric mentions the weakening of the previous record + IOD is a plus overall.

If only ........ Plus, I like the green blob over Delaware, probably additional cooling from a recent SECS.

We touched on this last week ( new research ) about the MJO cycling through the colder phases quicker, with more time spent in the warmer phases courtesy of the West Pac warm pool. Do you have any idea when, or if the Pac Jet will slow down, or is that outcome unlikely? I know you saw the too the record + IOD is weakening. On a side note, actually seems up next might be the development of a West based - NAO and after the weekend rainstorm a potential winter storm threat.

MJO Update from yesterday.

Must be a good sign if you are stopping by.

Very true. A score before Christmas, regardless of tomorrow's outcome would be awesome , but also possibly show this winter wants to deliver the goods for us.

That is what I like to see as well. However, some might be apprehensive after the recent screw job last year in early December. I don't think we would see anything like that weird set-up again this go around. If I recall correctly is was a piece of the vortex rotating and/or a pv streamer that deflected and or prevented the storm from moving further North. This was also the time too of the continuation of the SWE and the I believe there was even large North Atlantic High. I don't recall the specifics, but the after thought was in a typical progression the Northern Mid Atlantic should have been hit by that SECS.

Might be going towards this down the road and the talk of an improving Atlantic has been discussed here for the last several days.

LOL....... sounds like a weather version of a Rorschach test.

Yes, as to my remark they seem washed out. Nothing remarkable . but NOT a torch either.

I only had three beers....... getting ready for the Eagles game. I need to be a little buzzed to watch my home town team. Ugh ! To clarify, they look a bit on the warm side until the end of January. They also look like the Euro seasonal model runs which depict little high latitude blocking. So, they match the Euro seasonals from Sept and October that forecast little blocking and a not so good pattern for us. I hope that is clearer.

The "weaklies" look blah-ish to me through the end of January. Looking at 500 along with 2 meter temps they seem to possibly echo the seasonal outlooks from back in October and November. However, what they show is not surprising, and I put very little faith in them. The look also seems washed out, with nothing to hang your hat on.

As expected , the decline has commenced.

The trends are trending ..........

Speculation, but the AO should be slightly negative near day 8, ( and possibly declining further from there ) and if so, this may play a role in a better outcome than this weekend. As you mention, originally when the rainstorm this weekend looked like a a nice CAD event I believe the AO was forecasted to be negative, right now that is not the case. A week ago there was posting about a interval during mid-month that would give us a better look up top. Maybe this is going to happen and hence we see the potential in the d8-10 period.

The depth and expanse of the cold push has really diminished the last four days. When you compare the AO right now to the time period November 1 st to November 20 th , it was in a steady decline starting on the first and continued to drop to - 2 SD on the 20th. I believe this aided in the surge South of the bitter air mass along with the assistance from the PAC at that time, and a couple other factors. What is really interesting is how unusual the November cold period really was, and what, if anything it might mean further down the road when we get a prolonged -NAM state. Granted these November cold intrusions are not new, having occurred several times recently this decade. So, as is the theme so far this Fall , it is very hard time for making any meaningful pattern correlations. ( 1 +1 does not equal 2 ) Even with the depicted cold air mass arriving it does not hold a candle to the cold anomalies seen in mid November, and that even includes actual air temps. That period was very unusual. The air mass came directly from the pole SSE towards our area. The current pattern sure does not lack cold and storm threats, but in general sense favor the Northern Plains, Great Lakes region and the far NE. I look forward to when we reload /transition back to -NAM state. Things look to improve once over the moderation period.