frd

Exactly, back in the days of AOL dial up.....

@C.A.P.E. don't look at this afternoon's Euro Control for your area late this month I call it the frd/CAPE special

I think his area is NYC. I recall him from Eastern back in the days

We do better in March. I bet running the numbers it is remarkable how much more snow in this area the last 10 years during March versus December. Nothing new there, source regions still very cold, Atlantic SSTs colder, etc.

Not sure how relevant, and to what latitude this might be targeted to , ie. DC , Philly or even NYC., but I read that despite having a -AO in December, along with a -NAO the most important indice to have in your favor during December for increased snowfall odds is a +PNA. I am beginning to believe that. You don't need the +PNA as much in J, F and M The +PNA does seem more important in reality versus the -NAO/ Davis Straits block during December. Now for the records, a MECS in December in the Northern Mid Atlantic, yes, you need both. A lot of what I said here is from reading all the great posts and stats form Don S. Love his stuff ! So next time you see a Greenland block you still need to check the Pac. I know you know all this, LOL, but some folks may not understand the importance of the Pac , especially this early in the season and for our hood especially . Caveat mention here: as @psuhoffman stated, having this blocking in December may indeed be a positive sign for later in the season. Especially seeing the NAO blocking a couple times so far.

@Bob Chill The Pac has muted the NAO block and warmth is really over- taking the country later in the period. Awesome pattern cancel. Certainly seems we are going to need time to recover as the Pac looks not so good. . However, I reserve the right to change my opinion tomorrow.

Yes, totally agree. And @psuhoffman maybe the GEFS is rushing things. We shall know soon enough.

If the EPS is going to flip to the GEFS it will be soon in my opinion. It has already has once this cold season and getting closer to the under 10 days, so maybe today or even tomorrow it flips. We shall see. Not holding my breathe but anything is possible. If it were not for the dramatic changes so far this season with modeling days 11 to 15 I wouldn't even bring it up, but I believe there is some merit to the possibility.

Bob, I was feeling better about the next 2 weeks yesterday and the day before. My downfall was actually thinking we break from the hostile Pac pattern. Well known is the fact the Pac jet has set records for blasting onshore here in the states, and even up into Alaska, ruins the ridge axis out West. The Pac jet, which has been a detriment for us in terms of snowfall since last winter, will continue to be be a killer for us until we see a reshuffle out in the far West Pac. If that does not happen real snow events are simply modeled in error. Have you also noticed there is nothing to anchor in the cold. Cold air not hanging tough. Even a perfect pattern ends in rain.

I know you know this. Run over run consistency does not correlate to eventual high model verification in the extended. ( At least if you desire snow in our area ) I have seem the old and new GFS have a SECS modeled for many runs in a row, I believe once it was 3 days in a row or 12 runs, maybe even longer than that , and as you guessed, finally the GFS did cave to the no snow Euro solution. No high praises for the Euro intended, because that model has landed flat on its face as well from time to time.

BAMWX is stating skill scores right now in days 11 to 15 are at 10 %. Good luck everyone, deep freeze or torch and yeah your covered. Also hearing things along the lines that models are individually biasing the MJO phases. I was not aware of that possibility, or how that plays into the model outcomes. For example GFS phases 8 and 1 , Euro phases 3 , 4 and 5 but muted. I hope we do get the West Pac changes soon and there is not a significant lag form the weakening IOD state.

If it was not for the wild swings in the EPS along with the antics and cold bias of the GFS I would be a little excited. Still a ways to go, however, a lot better than some Decembers in these parts. Thanks for the updates !

Wonder if the continuous, and annoying, fast Pac jet screws up the period near 12/19 to 12/22. Bluewave made a good point about the Pac jet effecting the ridge axis out West. Might be difficult to achieve the proper ridge axis unless things change up a bit. Not sure the block/ - NAO alone is enough. The ramped up Pac jet was one big concern last winter. from bluewave: <<<< The EPS has a low coming through the Great Lakes with cold high pressure behind it. Ridge axis would be too far east for a major storm. May be tough to back that ridge far enough west with such a fast Pacific Jet. >>>>>>

I thought the latest figure was + 5.09 or close to it . Might be mistaken

YESSSSS

With the way the EPS has been changing tunes at longer leads, I would think it is fair to assume additional changes are coming up. HM alluded to the period now, as well as others, as having an extremely high degree of difficulty to forecast. I know some will state when a strong block is established forecasting verification might go up, but based on all the factors at play I don't think we are there yet. Many things are still in flux, both in the Pac and the Atlantic side, and even the HL. Not boring in the least.

OMG, this is crazy. Incredible 6 hour temp drops just for the fun of it ! My hood goes from 46 to 12 in 6 hours, a 34 degree drop, LOL Some locals experience even greater drops . CLICK FOR ANIMATION

Get ready, getting closer

Prior to this time frame with have this event unfolding below, note the vortex taking on a peanut shape (mentioned by Hugo a few days ago ) , not really a true split , as the depiction is at 50 mb, however ,as noted by HM, very important and not so usual. Cool things are a happening ........

GEFS does have some hits for our area on 12/21. I doubt this cuts. Either it hits, or a Southern slider or OTS. Damn, that block, so pretty !

If I recall correctly last December was for the most part was dry. I remember not having any issues with my "Longwood Gardens -ish " type Christmas lights out front. This December so far has featured a combo of chilly, cloudy, wet and raw and and a covering of snow.

GFS sniffing the potential down the road .......or maybe just tripp'in I am looking forward t the Euro and EPS run soon. I really feel the block is not figured out yet properly by any model, not to mention the vacillation of the PV near days 7 to 12.

This is right on the mark. I love seeing the -NAO action and it would appear the background state is more conducive to wanting to deliver cooler outcomes. No wild high amp warm MJO phases that stall, seems more so to a degree normal, versus last year at this time . If we get the Pac to improve things look very interesting indeed. I myself enjoy seeing the crazy vacillations in the in the vortex. The end of the winter might really feature some good Pac periods, contrary to some thoughts out there. Hopefully, blocking continues to show up. The vortex is suppose to get stronger soon, but I believe it is natural at this time of the year to be near interim highs. I would not be a bit surprised to see weakening by mid Jan to benefit Feb at some point ,and March especially. Just speculating but the descending QBO should kick in and be a more significant player by Feb. but as you know we are already getting some blocking episodes. This was a cool piece of info ( see below ) that I came across on HM's feed IO . The uncertain part may not be the weakening of the IOD, but more so how long will the lag effect take to wear off. That is the tricky part. Seems the standing wave had interfered with achieving the best outcomes from the MJO and tropical forcing. HM thinks that changes moving forward along with a few other mets. Things are looking to pick up around here soon. I have a feeling sometime before March 15 th there will be a KU event for the DC to Baltimore area. It fits the extreme nature of recent weather events and I feel the HL are targeting the Eastern half of the country this winter season. Anthony Masiello 2h The N PAC low/+EPO and Scand. look you see seeing in the extended range is actually a classic IO lag. But the next West Pac influence is already underway then.

Nice to see this .... it appears region 1.2 is cooling ahead of schedule. Of course we all know this region has a lot of volatility. However, we don't really want to have significant warm anomalies there. You can also see the slight changes starting in the IOD. Meanwhile the visualization at an attempt to weaken the IOD / standing wave further. Hopefully it works out, as it would match the seasonal progression.

A few members today on the CPC AO ensembles take it down to - 4 SD. LOL This is after what appears to be a consensus drop to - 2 SD early next week. The spread becomes very diffuse towards month end.