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Pretty impressive SST anomaly and the waters North of Alaska are still ice free. I am beginning to appreciate more and more how climate change is changing the drivers of weather. Not only with recent Novembers but even with how storms are tracking in the lower latitudes. In part from the HC and height field compression .

This is an interesting precip signal from the seasonal . Wonder how active the Northern Jet will be ? Progressive disturbances, versus, do we ever get upstream blocking to develop. Everything last winter either flew by or lacked proper phasing.

Is the EPO loading pattern / low sea ice, other N Pac features forcing these colder Novembers since 2012?

Eh, that stinks and icing on the cake was reading Isotherm's winter forecast. If I didn't value his insights as much as I do I would throw his forecast aside. But, I can't.

Well......... deja vu anyone Just like last year to the date per Bluewave , ( record high NA/NH snow cover ) wonder if we face the same scenario as Dec 2018 come this mid December, when the NH snow cover dropped rapidly. What looked so promising changed so quickly as warmth over spread the land. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html

I am sure you recall last year, looked great and was great but we hit the middle of December and poof, we lost a lot of the snow cover in the States and in Canada. Notice that dramatic decline in the graph around the second part of December. We would recover eventually, but not till mid Feb. ironic. Wonder if we are destined to the same outcome this year? You would have thought the snow cover might have aided in the delivery of cold air masses into the states, but alas it seems the ones who did benefit the most were the Northern Plains and Northern Maine.

Wow, this is a huge surprise, and then again not so surprised. I value your research and insights, thanks for the time in putting this together @Isotherm Personally I feel we do a generally normal winter but we can revisit this in later March. Isotherm's Winter Forecast http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Hmm. interesting just apply some pressure and keep it weak. Remember there is talk that the seasonal models may be getting the idea of a + NAO and a + AO from the forecast of a very strong winter PV this coming winter. If that is true, and the PV is weaker instead, we might be a different outcome. Read from BAMMWX that SST models and the data from them that goes into the seasonal models ( and also SST ocean modeling in general ) is prone to significant fluctuations regarding accuracy. Many times the forecast for a certain SST -state months out in the future never really verifies well. BAMMWX stated they studied this and found only about 19 % of the time was the forecast accurate. I am not sure the details and the specifics, but I found that an eye opener. Wonder how much that data effects the seasonal models? Personally, I am sure it does, as the oceans are a huge weather driver.

Glad to hear you think this winter has potential coming up Bob. The eventual moderation and warm up will make many feel bummed, but it is a natural process. Difficult at this time to pin point when we moderate. Rolling forward the phases and the retrogression hopefully not more than a couple weeks warm up. Where last December we broke records for the MJO being in the wrong phases/very high amplitude this December maybe we continue spending the most time in the colder phases. Certainly it has been going that way to a degree. When the pattern reverts back to more winter-like you have to think we might be in prime time. I also read something recently that stated the progression of the PV is ahead of some other analog years that match up and because of that instead of a early Jan severe snow storm, such as what happened a few years ago, we might get pattern in the third week of December after the warm up. Total speculation of course. That speculation of course takes into view the - NAO in December as you mentioned. Also, read in the winter of 02-03 we had a SSWE , I never knew that. I know your stance on those and I agree sometimes they mess things up for us. Meanwhile you hear stories on the media that cattle and livestock froze as they stood in parts of Siberia and other locals because that area took the direct hit from the effects of the SSW. A SSW is like going to AC and thinking you are going to win. ha ... We have had our share lately regarding globally severe generational winter events taking place in the NH. I think the odds this winter will present some crazy stuff going down. Heck, look at Denver recently! Seems the atmosphere is aligning to severe blocks and a convoluted structure. Thanks for your thoughts Bob ! Now that you are back we can rock and roll . Cheers !

I am surprised DT posted this as he loves the Euro, but then again he has a colder winter outlook. In regards to the seasonal as well, wondering what is more difficult for the seasonal models to predict, the precip tendencies or the temps ? I would imagine one is related to the other, and both could be difficult to forecast. The signal for precip has been there along the East Coast. Also, still reading things about the NAO for Dec. As @C.A.P.E. posted. Hearing the spread for a +NAO in December has been reduced. Looks like Jan has the greatest indication of a positive NAO from some sources and hence has strongly shifted . This entire sequence of events is remarkable in itself because if a forecaster can call the turning point of the NAO correctly , or the mild period coming up that can make his or her seasonal forecast golden. Maybe in the NE , including our region, we get the NAO to go negative in December ( still awaiting on HM's call of a more so negative NAO later in month ) That might help if we lose the Pac. If we get the - NAO in December does it then last until early Jan 20? If so, then maybe the Pac improves and lessens the need for the -NAO in Jan . Honestly, if the Pac is as good as it seems like it wants to be this season, well we will not need the help of a -NAO as much . Some here are more interested in the rises and falls of the NAO versus a continuous trip well above neutral. These relates to possible storm periods. All these things enter the picture as to how the month of December, Jan and Feb will go. Interesting times ahead. For every action there is a reaction. Call the first action correctly and then you might be more likely to call the next couple months correctly. I see some professional forecasters are still waiting to release their seasonal forecasts. Why ? I think they are again searching for the sequence and timing the evolution of the current pattern, and the reaction after this anomalous cold period coming up. It is not very easy at all.

This conversation is too good to pass up . Webb makes a good reasoning for us to have a warm December and if we get the ENSO 1.2 to warm well it could get ugly. For every action there is a reaction. @bamwxcom · 41m Replying to @webberweather Things are a lot different this year though. I don’t think we’re looking at the traditional Dec torch. Reasoning is winded but just looking at the PV alone, tropical forcing and QBO/solar cob argues this year has legit chances at atleast slightly colder than normal. BAMWX @bamwxcom· 38m No denying the risk and general climo of course but if I were to bet against all that it would be this year. If ENSO 1.2 can stay cool that will help too along with generally -AAM. That’s our idea atleast hope all is well! -Michael Eric Webb @webberweather· 35m Oddly enough, when you remove the strong NINOs w/ huge NINO 1-2 anoms from that subset, the warm signal gets stronger in Dec. I have a hunch we're probably going to hit a brick wall at some pt once the tropical forcing shifts back into the Indian Ocean. http://atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/RMMphasecompslp500ht.html… BAMWX @bamwxcom· 32m That is certainly interesting. The correlations since 2000 argue an Eastern Us Trough. The EPS/CFS weeklies also stall the MJO in 8-1-2 largely for DEC. If we torch this year I think it may never be possible to get cold in DEC again Eric Webb @webberweather· 24m MJO phases 8-1-2 are cold at lag = 0 in the east-central US, but w/ positive lag in NDJ, we're often mild or torching. I also have reservations about NINO 1-2 staying negative for too much longer. Eric Webb @webberweather ·22m Interesting forecast nonetheless, I hope I'm wrong because I've gotten completely sick & tired of warm Decembers around here, 8 in a row and counting in NC.

Brilliant ! Bring on the ice age baby ! Its about time Snow Miser gets his damn revenge !

Well now, I see HM mentioned the rubber band theory. I know he reads these boards. I also know for a fact Joel Myers from Accu Weather really did talk about this as a theory way back in the day. Not sure if HM's post means a moderation and change in the weather is a natural process, or whether he believes we can continue cold, or simply the most obvious might be there is no real support for the rubber band theory. Who the heck knows sometimes with Anthony. But, I love his insights ! I imagine eventually a pattern runs its course.

Maybe even the South gets involved. Goes to show you the extent and degree of the cold air mass. However, as Webb mentions, it is still early November, and what is a week among friends.

@poolz1 So much to look at these days, very exciting times. The Strat takes a back seat to sensible weather and real time events but this is worth mentioning. Speculation on my part, but maybe this either decreases any moderation period ( even though the outcome is uncertain and lag period as well ) and potentially increases risk of more significant weather events here. As Tip in NE forum mentioned any strat helped - AO outcome may simply get lost in a season of naturally occurring -AO tendencies. So far, so good.

Hearing the spread of NAO solutions are larger in this update , going by what Matt posted. I have not seen it first hand. Sounds like the Pac remains good, which makes sense and increase my confidence in colder risks/outcomes. Will be interesting tracking what the PDO does, according to Bob's recent posts, maybe going more positive. A + 1 PDO in December ( from Don S ) certainly makes a colder December outlook more plausible based on his research. I am still riding the +PMM for a cold December , even though it is not as high as 3 weeks ago I believe.

A follow up from John regarding the collapse of the Chukchi Sea ridge. A combination of factors leading to a very cold and active period down the road. Awesome animation too !

Bring it !!!!!

Brought it up in the context of a somewhat similar occurrence, a few years ago when a extremely powerful cyclone went up into the NE Pac. Was all over the media and social feeds. Sorry for not including the reference. Was thinking about it and forget to include it in my post. Anyways, there was talk that winter that it could have messed up the AO domain because of over pumping the heights and messing things up in general. However, IF it was the Fall of 2015 and it was the Bering Sea Bomb then that following Jan we had the spike down in the AO and the Blizzard in an otherwise crap winter. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2016/01/supplemental/page-5 So take from that what you may. Overall speculation about any future outcomes pending the recurve as Webb mentions. Oh, just to mention in 2014 there was Nuri https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_2014_Bering_Sea_cyclone I found this link https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/14/bering-sea-bomb-cyclone-ties-record-for-strongest-storm-in-north-pacific/ Dec. 14, 2015 at 2:51 p.m. EST The Bering Sea west of Alaska hosted a whopping storm system over the weekend, with sustained winds equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane and gusts up to 115 mph. Having dropped 49 millibars between Saturday and Sunday, the incredible Aleutian cyclone constitutes a meteorological “bomb” — a storm that drops at least 24 millibars in 24 hours — more than twice over. Early Sunday morning, the storm’s central pressure finally bottomed out at 924 millibars, tying the record for lowest wintertime pressure in the North Pacific Ocean since records began in the winter of 1969-1970. The previous strongest storm in this region occurred just one year ago.

Well................................... this might empty the clip .......j/k

Back - trajectories - pretty cool. For this Sat AM.

Week 44 N Hemisphere Snow Cover just updated, and we are very high compared to previous week 44 over the past 20 years. Yesterday we gained positive anomalies on both sides of the pole ( link below ) Southern Canada did very well over a large region. If anything the Siberian high should be aided by the vast snow cover over there. Row Year Week N. Hemisphere Eurasia N. America N. America (no Greenland) 1 2019 44 31.89 18.41 13.48 11.33 2 2019 43 28.69 16.50 12.19 10.04 3 2019 42 23.49 14.29 9.20 7.05 4 2019 41 18.05 9.66 8.39 6.24 5 2019 40 14.63 8.16 6.47 4.32 6 2019 39 8.91 3.52 5.39 3.24 Wow, positives on both sides of the pole. Looking great so far ! https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2019&ui_day=307&ui_set=2 More to come for NA

Don't see this every day. https://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/120102-cold-pattern-shows-staying-power-as-natural-gas-futures-continue-climbing

From Don S. taken with the notion that we are not really sure about the next three weeks and how the PDO might change along with possible blocking, as Don mentions. I personally feel that the record IOD , + PMM , less sea ice over vast areas North of Alaska and other factors point to possibly normal December temp wise. but only speculation at this point. However, as with the upcoming extremely cold and anomalous air mass we could snap the rubber band and go in the opposite direction resulting in warmth returning for a while in December , the extent and duration is again pure speculation. From Don S recent post ( just a section of it ) from the NYC forum : <<< Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. >>>>>

There are signs that the PDO region might become better established and grow more + in the next several weeks. Also, you have to think that we are deviating to a degree from the warm West Pac , Cold East by nature of the extreme +IOD and very cool ENSO 1.2. Also, the lack of sea ice North of Alaska and other factors as well suggest, at least the possibility, that after a moderation we may not be destined for a torch December. The record IOD is a huge player and even the PMM has my attention.