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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    WxUSAF replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Oh my mistake. That definitely changes the sensible outcomes.
  2. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    WxUSAF replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    The way that plot is made, doesn’t Dec-Jan 2001 mean Dec 2001-Jan 2002??
  3. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    WxUSAF replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    ^a lot of those +QBO/Ninos are great winters for us. Maybe it’s the difference between the SE and our area. The longwave pattern looks good in the -QBO map (with some small quibbles), but it doesn’t seem to work out for our area too well.
  4. WxUSAF
    .01”! Forecast verified!
  5. WxUSAF
    Sports is sadness
  6. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    WxUSAF replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    This looks really good, but 2 of these recent or fairly recent Nina analogs were really shitty winters. And Dec 2006-Jan 2007 was awful, although Feb 2007 was cold and fairly snowy.
  7. WxUSAF
    #TeamNAMRideOrDie
  8. WxUSAF
    This is the part of the winter storm cycle where we all say we never REALLY thought we were getting 1-2’ and it will be nice just to see the grass turn white.
  9. WxUSAF
    Would still be a nice soaking rain for most. It’s the best of the options at this point outside the NAM.
  10. WxUSAF
    Euro is basically some light rain tomorrow afternoon and evening and that’s the whole deal
  11. WxUSAF
    Well 12z meso runs are starting off positively FWIW (very little)
  12. WxUSAF
    OMG I just LLLLOOVVVEEEEE Ninas!
  13. WxUSAF
    Forecast is always going to be very razor-edge when you’re counting on a phase happening right on top of us essentially. The “locked in” coastal storms phase much farther southwest.
  14. WxUSAF
    41 for me. No 30s. Boooo
  15. WxUSAF
    There’s sort of two parts to this. The first is tomorrows afternoon into early Sunday with a deformation axis between the developing coastal and the northern stream shortwave. That seems fairly uniform on guidance? Then the second part is rain from the coastal. That still is uncertain and overnight runs definitely lowered the odds of the big 1”+ amounts.
  16. WxUSAF
    @mappytown mesonet already down to 39! Going to make a run at first freeze.
  17. WxUSAF
    18z gfs track is west of 12z slightly but drier overall. Basically a hold.
  18. WxUSAF
    Lots of 30s at least. Hope MBY makes it
  19. WxUSAF
    It’s a tough forecast for your area still. Most confident parts are cloudy, cool, and breezy. Rain is possible anytime between Saturday afternoon (showers at most) to Monday (potentially steady moderate rain). Rain amounts are still a hard call for areas west of the Bay and DC especially.
  20. WxUSAF
    Euro moved back to what it had been doing, which is it retrogrades it back toward us and gives us a very rainy Monday. Widespread 1". Still a pretty different solution than GFS/GGEM/Icon, and it all comes down to where the northern stream shortwave phases in.
  21. WxUSAF
    Ukie takes it over toward Buffalo and it looks like the sloppy phase Euro that skips us mostly except for light showers Saturday.
  22. WxUSAF
    TT and Pivotal haven’t updated Canadian model output in days. But other places apparently have it. What gives?
  23. WxUSAF
    Someone can do a thread if people want that
  24. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    WxUSAF replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

  25. WxUSAF
    Weirdly (?) euro AI keeps drifting east even as the traditional guidance is starting to line up with the details.
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