WxUSAF

3” for @psuhoffman and 0 for DCA. That about covers it.

That’s good to hear at least. You’d think that 50-50 and NAO should support enough confluence aloft to hold some cold air around initially. But we want that TPV to stay away.

It just shows we have something to have worthless discussion about! Think of the worthless discussion we'd be having if it was 60 every day!

Reading elsewhere, apparently EPS shows this with a fair number looking like the GFS. But that^ NAO and 50-50 do look good.

If I had to wager, the big wildcard for next week is that TPV location. Sure, subtleties of where the 50-50, cyclonic wave-breaking forced -NAO, and shortwave positioning will matter, but I think that TPV location is the most likely make or break piece on the chessboard. Move it too far south and if a piece of it phases in, that would tend to pull everything to the NW. I suppose if more of it ends up in the 50-50 low or over Hudson Bay that could even produce a suppressed scenario (although I'd put that at least likely). We want it to stay out of the way up there in Nunavut.

Euro Kuchera says congrats on your 3”.

It’s not just sleet. It gives freezing rain like a 20:1 ratio.

Canadian models are suggesting 1 primary frontogen band along I-95 more or less. American suite and Euro suggest 2, one NW and one SE of I-95.

GFS has been doing these epic D10 arctic highs + southern Plains ice destruction a few times already. Maybe it eventually actually happens?

Fairfax hasn't closed yet? They're pushing it I see...

That still seems pretty low at this point, but I suppose they're waiting until the 12z suite is complete before raising any alarms. Given the rush hour impacts, I imagine this is certainly worth a WWA for the entire LWX region.

Op run at range, yaddayaddayadda, but GFS says our torch period next week is full of arctic air.

30% chance of a period of snow tomorrow morning? That seems rather low...

Since I’m not home, I’m relying on you to be chief slantsticker for eastern HoCo! Don’t fail me!

Yes, but it’s most severe in the medium and long range. In the short range it’s minimal. But of course that’s an average across lots of space and time, so it could be wrong either way in any particular location and time.

Show him the HRDPS...he'll switch.

Yeah. I was looking at 3k NAM soundings around DC/Balt and it's pretty minimal and mostly at 900mb actually. The models account for precip evaporating/subliming during descent (I'm 99% sure...) so can't really explain it.

NAM doesn't. It's drier in terms of precip, but has a moister column below 850mb.

Something is majorly weird with the GFS and that 850mb dry layer that develops between 0z and 6z Wednesday. I don't see how that is consistent with 0.2-0.5" of liquid equivalent. Pivotal shows the same info as TT, so it's not that one is plotting bad data. Just bizarre.

Traveling today so haven’t been able to look at much, but GEFS was tanking the AO. How does the ao look on the eps?

You and Ji are the same person, right?

Yup. Smidge colder, 1-2F, than 0z and maybe a touch wetter.

That gfs sounding is just bizarre. I don’t understand how that jives with moderate precip. Compare that to the NAM sounding Bob posted which makes much more sense.

I think coating-3” probably covers it

Time to shovel