WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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I’m 100% sure (ok, 99%) that they will be an east coast storm this week. 80-90% sure it’s going to snow a lot somewhere between RDU/ORF and BOS. 75% sure of shovelable snow in LWX WFO area. 99% chance of Ji being disappointed
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We'll pass the 100 hour mark with the 0z runs tonight. Storm starts forming in 60-ish hours. We're getting pretty close. There's going to be a storm nearby. Miss risk seems mostly associated with something that hits Norfolk area then slides OTS.
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6z gfs was a major step toward a euro-like solution. Much closer to a phase than any earlier runs.
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Dendrite bomb CCB ongoing with 12-20”+ on the ground. Terrible run
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Actually more spacing between the trop PV and the southern shortwave on 18z vs 12z. So the storm is entirely southern forced. That actually makes it a bit stronger than 12z (no interference from the northern stream), but WAY far from a phase like the Euro/GGEM/Ukie.
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Waking up to a 20F CCB death band
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Hang it in the fucking Louvre
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Incredible event on my son’s 5th birthday. Kicked off an epic next 5 weeks.
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Love how cold it would be before and during this event. Upper 10s/low 20s on euro. Even during daytime. That’s pretty unusual for late season snow events obviously.
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Forecasting by snow maps isn’t the ideal method of course, but there’s an important difference here. Last week’s ensemble maps favored Tuesday, but had a lot of time spread with some snow from yesterday and some from tomorrow. So the big totals were like 96-120 hour totals. 24 hour totals were always more in the 5-6” range. This storm’s ensemble snow maps aren’t “contaminated” by that spread in storms and timing. And I know you’re 50% trolling, but I love you anyway.
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it did not. Glancing blow I think.
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Northern stream shortwave/trop PV is just totally sheared out this run. Very different than other guidance and its own previous runs.
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It’s a banger
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Northern stream typically has more uncertainty/variability at short to medium lead times. That could be good or bad in this context.
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Yup was just thinking that. We’re only ~5 days out from this developing.
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So every global gives us something? Seems like a solid 12z suite. Hopefully eps is encouraging.
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GEFS continues to favor something suppressed pretty far southeast/OTS.
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Ukie really digs the trop PV and is capturing the coastal low as the run ends. Snow would definitely continue past that point. R/S line way south. HECS for RIC in progress.
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I don’t believe that Saturday morning stuff on the GFS and NAM at all. Hope I’m wrong.
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Foot for OCMD. 4-6” for metros, less north, more SE.
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I guess any particular threat in that period. So wouldn't be surprised if we get a couple more SECS-level events! Just don't know that we can pull a rabbit out of the hat to get a MECS+.
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Certainly seems to be. I absolutely see the potential of the pattern starting in 1 week and going beyond that. But I'd bet more on some sort of SECS/"meh" result than the MECS-HECS just because something probably will f this up from maxing potential. Hope I'm wrong.
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I'm not even the far NW crew and I'm getting twitchy at seeing snow maxes south of me...
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There's reasons MECS+ are really rare in Ninas...
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34 with mist and drizzle. Miserable.
