WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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10/10 sunset aleet
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Someone post euro weekly control
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From @donsutherland1
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The looks D10-15 on the ensembles are not really +TNH, they look very much like a mod-strong Nino climo. But the extended progs all evolve that to a +TNH look into the end of the month and December. That would fit more with the background forcing
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Storm water ponds and parts of the creeks in my neighborhood frozen over. That’s certainly early.
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Not sure it’s either. I think it’s just subseasonal forcing like the MJO combining with factors like the warm water in the west Pacific producing this sort of look.
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Not speaking about this specifically, but it’s crazy to me how Nino-like the pattern is in 10-14 days according to the ensembles.
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Nope. Bottomed out at 22 and rose after midnight.
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23 already. Teens finally tonight?
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Definitely a more likely outcome
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Happy hour looks a baby step closer again. Trailing wave is stronger and trough is more negatively tilted. Problem is the boundary layer. Temps still in U30s/N40 when there’s still some precip. Freezing level around 950mb.
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I think all 3 globals got closer to “something” with the 12z runs. They essentially split the follow up wave into 2 parts so the second barely has a little precip around as the cold air arrives. It’s very much on the razor edge and I wouldn’t believe it until short range if it played out this way. If some how that second part can separate more and therefore have the cold air more in place, we’d have a more confident chance.
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Yeah BAMwx going pretty hard on the 13-14 analog on Twitter this morning.
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Flurries in Ellicott city per Mrs. WxUSAF
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Could be @psuhoffmans 3rd or 4th accumulating event? According to my calculations, that many accumulating events by December 6th means we get a HECS in January.
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Was wondering if those radar echoes were producing. Nothing here though.
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Which comes next? White Christmas or 75F+ Christmas?
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Today could be the rare day with a midnight high and midnight low! BWI was 45 last night at midnight and temp will likely slowly drop overnight.
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We need that initial wave to be stronger and drag the boundary south of us. The potential snow-producing wave can’t be the one to pull the cold air in. Then we’re chasing moisture with cold.
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Haven’t seen many spotter reports (slackers!), but based on social media pictures, the Carroll-Baltimore-Harford counties area got a solid 0.5”+ this morning.
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Family in bel air said coming down well and even accumulating on the road in this burst. Just rain near Greenbelt.
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Did it accumulate?
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Currier and Ives wrote about that I think
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A NWS employee in Elkridge reported 0.1” at 11pm last night. Anyone nearby confirm? @Scraff?
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To my eye, all 3 ensembles appear in the process of redeveloping western ridging at the end of their runs. GEPS is fastest and GEFS is slowest, with EPS in the middle. Also been a notable guidance trend toward more ridging over the pole the last couple days and it continues through the ensemble periods. That can’t hurt.
