WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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30F. Can see icicles on the deck. No signs we had any sleet accumulation.
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Sleet and rain. 34/18
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HoCo just went ahead and closed. They couldn’t do a 2hr delay. Hope there’s something visible outside when people wake up at least.
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Waiting for evaporative cooling to get below freezing doesn't exactly scream worrisome icing event.
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35/18
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I know, I know, but 12k NAM has a nice snow burst Saturday
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Ugh good call. HCPSS just sent an email saying it’s closed or open tomorrow. No delay option.
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3k pretty cold too. All I want is measurable sleet and a 2hr delay.
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3k is dry, hrrr is wet.
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Blech. Hrrr is warm.
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Based on a crappy SV EPS snowmap I just saw on Twitter, it keeps tacking on through the end of the run and still ends up with some gaudy totals? But sharper southern gradient then earlier runs.
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Several days ago, the storm looked like this multiple series of waves with varying p-types. These MECS solutions consolidated the energy and early in the week. Now we’re back to a bunch of waves along the boundary. Still lots of time left.
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Euro I guess still had C-1” Saturday evening with a little ice after
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How does sleet look tonight?
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12z euro-18z gfs blend from yesterday is now the floor. Anything less than 15-20” is a fail.
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Gfs was between 12-18z Monday now. I’d wager that’s a large part of what the EPS is reflecting. Earlier start. Kinda crazy when we started watching this event, it was evening of the 12th into the 13th.
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Storm start keeps moving earlier and earlier. GFS has that precursor idea on Monday! 126 hours out. 2nd batch about 24-30 hours later. Euro was about 12 hours slower.
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Separating this out.
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Gfs-euro blend seems acceptable
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Eh not sure about that. Continues to look drier and hence less impactful.
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Nor’easter comes from the predominant wind direction, typically during big coastal storms. This storm is forecast to be a bit different (primarily an “overrunning” event), but winds would shift to northeast at the end according to the euro.
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Based on their AFD, I think LWX has issued WWAs, but haven’t seen them populate yet
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Now that pivotal loaded the good frames…wow. We get the full WAA to CCB pivot
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Once we get the MECS out of the way, we should be able to see the set up for the good pattern
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lol and I was about to post that euro is C-1” for metros on Saturday
