WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Definitely drier. Seems maybe due to weaker shortwave. Confluence is actually backed off notably even vs 6z run. But shortwave can’t pull in as much moisture perhaps.
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CWG bumped totals to 6-10” for most. 4-8” for M/D line crew and south of Stafford Va to St Mary’s MD.
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Outside of the DCA tarmac, we’re not going to lose a flake
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What I've occasionally seen from the GRAF on twitter is that it's closer to the consensus! WBAL seems to want to use a combo of the Ukie and the farther south Euro run from the last 48 hours.
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This is fairly similar... What the 6z here shows even more though is that areas JUST north of the sleet mixing line are absolutely thumping.
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DC TV mets all have max snow DC-north. WBAL has been consistent with congrats Short Pump lol. It's weird. I think 3-6" for Harford/Cecil could be reasonable. 2-4"? Gtfo, especially when they have WSWs.
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Anyone have pretty HREF maps? HREF, not SREF. From what I saw on Twitter (probably old now), it likes DC-Baltimore as the max stripe, but solid for most of us.
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Looked at 6z 3k NAM soundings. DC definitely stays all snow verbatim. Close at 12-13z, but it seems that may partially be due to lighter precip. Column cools again at 14-15z when things get a little heavier. Soundings tomorrow evening are beautiful for 12-15:1 fluff. Plan your @Jebman Jebwalks accordingly.
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I didn’t think we’d be done after tomorrow and I don’t think we’re done after Saturday. Potential for a major @Bob Chill heater this month.
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This is one of my favorite Twitter/bsky accounts
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This has heartbreak written all over it for some of us in the subforum. But a long way to go, so hope I’m wrong. Good thing most of us will score tomorrow.
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Damn is the euro refreshing to see as a wake up. Assuming no major 12z changes, hard not to just roll with a euro/3k NAM blend. Crazy uncle remains crazy. Euro showing tight gradient on the north side, but mostly in PA/NJ is what we thought would happen and now it’s there on guidance.
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Ok goodnight weenies. Don’t let the euro f this up while I’m sleeping plz.
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Whoa. And 3k has much less wet bias than 12k… if tomorrows 12z run is similar…ooohhh baby.
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3k says the lead band that enters the area from 3-6z is driven by the 700mb fgen. Then it moves north and weakens as the 850mb fgen arrives 12-15z over mostly the same area. Hence you don’t get two areas with local maxima in snow totals but one broad swath.
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Globals seemed to have them in all snow or snow-mix-snow as Storm developed. But close to the line. Nam and hrrr had most mixing. But @csnavywx made a good point about the subsaturated column.
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To those about to be NAM’d, we salute you
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Ah interesting. Nice catch.
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HRRR is generally bad at synoptic snowfall in my experience.
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For KC at least it shows the warm layer aloft is stronger than suggested even 6-12 hours ago.
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Don’t read a ton into it, but KC has had tons of FZRA. Seems like 12z euro had them straddling snow/fzra line now. 3k NAM had sleet. GFS had snow/sleet.
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So much for cleaning up the penalties. They’re going to win, but this is a sloppy game before the playoffs.
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I think the dual band structure is probably going to happen. NBM sorta smoothes that out. 3k NAM does a similar swath through somewhat overlapping zones of the banding at different stages of the storm.
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^if we think there are forecast challenges for our area, Mt Holly and Philly Mets got to be pulling their hair out. @Heisy?? 1-2” on the euro and nbm with warning level.
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I think it’s possible but like all of us I can see failure modes lol. Getting between the 2 bands seems like maybe the most realistic for now. Too far north for the big WAA, too far south for big ratios. Still I think 5”/warning level is a probable floor. I personally am still rooting for a 3k NAM/NBM swath.
