WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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It will be AN after Xmas, but doesn’t seem like a real multi day torch for our area. If we have a really warm day it’s probably with a cutter and fairly short lived.
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Wife reports beautiful fluffy flakes in Baltimore. I can report sadness in Columbia.
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Mostly rain again now. An occasional flake.
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Mixing on and off with rain and drizzle here. When it gets slightly heavier the snow fraction increases.
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A few snowflakes in Columbia
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Puff puff pass
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An evolution that seems plausible based on long range guidance would be: 1. 1-2 strong cutters wave break during the Dec 29-Jan 2 period. This builds the NAO ridging. 2. They being in a cool, but not cold airmass for Jan 3-5. 3. Their remnants park in the 50/50 zone and provide confluence. 4. Another s/w approaches with a good track and acceptable airmass. 5. Profit
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Euro has snowtv for central MD and NoVA Friday. Temps too warm though for accumulation. That IVT feature looks really nice for Philly area and Jersey…
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Yes. This I like.
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Gfs kinda has this at the end, but I’d expect one or even a couple really wound up cutters around NYD that helps reset the pattern toward a more favorable configuration. If we’re lucky, a proclivity for big precip producers will continue after cold air returns.
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Monday morning low temp forecast: GGEM: low 0s (lol) Euro: low-mid 10s GFS: mid-upper 20s
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GGEM gifts central MD a white Xmas miracle
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I believe so
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NE MD pummeled!
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Two years ago Xmas eve had a low of 6 at BWI. BWI hasn’t had a high temp in the single digits in decades?
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Time for JB to start tweeting about how upper 30s are “still cold!” For Canada. In late December. Along Hudson Bay.
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lol GGEM near 0F Monday morning. GFS upper 10s/low 20s.
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Gfs and GGEM both took a small step back from overnight for Friday.
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All Hail Der Kaiser!
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After Friday-Saturday, there’s maybe a Hail Mary window right around Xmas. GGEM showed this last night. But otherwise, we’re shitting the blinds until first weekend in January I think. And agree with @psuhoffman that winter probably turns based on how much we cash in during January. I hold little hope for February and March this year given cool ENSO climo.
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Dang. Only icon gets it done, but overnight runs were a lot closer. On a different note, big disparity for post-Xmas torch potential. Euro/EPS seem to keep us wedged, so temps are AN but nothing I’d call a torch. Gfs suite doesn’t do that so we’d be popping some of those ridiculous +20F days potentially.
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Icon and GGEM both took a good step. Hard to imagine we get snow from the coastal, but I’m hoping we can get some snow from the primary before it loses its punch. Need some more south trends, but 12z moving that way.
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If the storm yesterday was 12 hours faster, most of the area gets 1-3/2-4”.
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Cold and dry-ish Niña periods are pretty normal historically. But yes, since BN periods are getting less frequent, it does hurt to let one go by without measurable snow to show for it. Even if it is December when we struggle to get much normally.
