WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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There are no trends yet. Yesterday the models “trended” toward a weaker primary. Last night they went the other way. It’s still pretty scattershot within a plausible envelope of possibilities. We know the general setup right now. Details that will impact our sensible weather still have to be sorted out.
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Overnight runs also made a clear step towards more overrunning precip Sunday night and Monday and link that with the main event Tuesday. Still obvious we don’t have this locked down.
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Eh don’t know about that. Cyclonic flow around a distinct LP area will help reinforce CAD and bring more precip. Some of the random great looks we’ve had for this event have the energy split around 50:50 between the primry and coastal.
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Only because 12z had sleet. 18z is easily more snow.
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18z GFS definitely puts more energy into the piece that transfers to the coast. Subtle differences from 12z, but ends up a bit better for us in the only way we care about.
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I could be wrong, I was just going off memory. Could just be 7/8. On a related note, I wonder if the SSW *does* end up actually saving this winter from being a raging dumpster fire for all of the eastern CONUS. Will be an interesting study.
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There's been discussion around that MJO Phase 8/1 in Ninos with early season SSWs DOES correlate to a SE ridge.
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@Bob Chill was saying how weenieish the 12z GEFS was, but it has a SE ridge the entire time as well and has the -NAO/50-50 combo.
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Don’t fall too in love with the TT GFS snow map as a lot of that is sleet. But I think a slightly improved result for us regardless. Weaker low is a big plus, but weaker and farther north high pressure offsets that to a degree.
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Yes
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The depiction of Monday’s wave can’t help but remind me of our big January storm and last Friday. Both times models show this respectable wave in the plAins and Midwest that dies as it gets to us in the midrange. Both storms trended better for us in the short range.
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When did tony Pann get a podcast? And who listens to it?
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Dude...wrong thread.
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New thread for next weeks storm chance. This thread will still be the NAO/soi/EPO/PNA/MJO extravaganza.
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Can we get another one to break in our favor in a bad pattern? Fast flow with lots of shortwaves going to make for jumpy forecasts.
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Dang, some respectable hits in the GEFS for Monday. Let’s do it.
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Bird in hand and all, let’s keep some focus on that first wave for Monday. Looks better on both gfs and GGEM.
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Do I wash my car or wait for a deluge next week?
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Everyone’s always HECS hunting
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If the 11-12th stuff survives for another couple days I’ll start a thread on it.
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If it holds...
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Is it baseball season yet?
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Guessing it was higher scoring?
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Won $200 for a 3-3 3rd quarter score!!
