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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    It doesn't really give us snow from the coastal. That's all from the northern stream trough. So that being stronger on the 12z euro vs. 0z gives us a nice advisory level event. So keep that strong/getting stronger and we can hopefully set a floor for SOME snow. I will say...a Friday happy hour snowfall timing would be quite acceptable to me.
  2. WxUSAF
    Absolutely. As @Bob Chill mentioned and I was discussing yesterday, the northern stream trough swinging through and providing some broad lift may be enough to set a "floor" for this event of something marginally shovelable. But I wouldn't trust this scenario giving us a major (high end advisory/low end warning level?) snow until I'm measuring it on my snowboard.
  3. WxUSAF
    It maybe has some hybrid aspect because of the southern stream involvement. But I think it leans more toward the Miller B side than Miller A because the surface low really only develops offshore once the 500mb energy arrives.
  4. WxUSAF
    Exactly. HAVE to have reasonable wiggle room on like Thursday's 12z runs if not later. I'm as encouraged as anyone that there's been a big west shift on the progs and it looks like we're in the game. But damn, "La Nina unblocked Miller B" is just a freaking giant klaxon alarm to keep expectations at "partly cloudy".
  5. WxUSAF
    Nice to see many with significant snow to our south. I'll just say...southwest edge of a Miller B's snowfall prediction = major yikes.
  6. WxUSAF
    Don't they know 1045am-2pm each winter day is "lunch" time!?!
  7. WxUSAF
    If the metro corridor gets ANY snow from an unblocked La Nina Miller B storm, we get down on our knees and say "Thank you Jesus may I have another!"
  8. WxUSAF
    NCEP email to ECMWF
  9. WxUSAF
    If the Bills had won last night I think they were clear SB favorites. So bummed.
  10. WxUSAF
    Ugh so disappointing. Josh Allen won that game twice and his defense couldn’t hold.
  11. WxUSAF
    Jesus this game
  12. WxUSAF
    We need Patreon for Amwx mods
  13. WxUSAF
    You would disagree if you knew what ass pain it is to move posts
  14. WxUSAF
    Bills pass rush has to get to Mahomes.
  15. WxUSAF
    Woo! Think the rams will crush the 49ers. Now Go Bills!!
  16. WxUSAF
    The PNA is very nice, nearly ideal. But with zero Atlantic side help, it has to be 100% perfect to get a coastal track for us. Even a bootleg 50/50 or NAO would slow things down and give us a little wiggle room. But it’s not there.
  17. WxUSAF
    Said it before, but I think we want to root for some snow with the upper air trough ala what the 18z icon shows.
  18. WxUSAF
    Just relying on the 500mb energy to provide some lift as it goes by.
  19. WxUSAF
    Good short thread here
  20. WxUSAF
    @Bob Chill and I have similar thoughts regarding this threat. I think hoping for a 1-3”/2-4” event as the northern trough swings through might be better odds. GFS has shown that off and on and now GGEM sort of does.
  21. WxUSAF
    IF (MA_weenie_prayers)=.true. THEN PRINT, “Gott ist tot” ENDIF
  22. WxUSAF
    Thanks. Neutral AO is certainly better than ++AO. PNA and AO are the 2 indices best correlated to DCA snowstorms. Having one or the either in a great position is a major help, especially if the other isn’t explicitly hostile.
  23. WxUSAF
    I think @high riskhas said what’s going to happen eventually is the new mesoscale model that will replace the NAM will be run hourly. Going to be fun!
  24. WxUSAF
    This is a huge wag, but I think 8”+ could be possible given how perfect that PNA ridge placement seems to be. But as you know, the lack of Atlantic side help makes the window very very small. I like overrunning events so much more because there’s much more wiggle room.
  25. WxUSAF
    Ding ding ding NAO isn’t as critical. (Virtually) No way DC is getting 18” with a +AO. But that PNA is basically ideal, so a better than normal event is possible on that basis alone.
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