WxUSAF

@psuhoffman that shows our dilemma so well. Outside of a few random ensemble members, I haven't seen any models have a track on or very near OCMD like you show is probably necessary. Maybe this one is the grand exception, but I'm not holding my breath on that.

This is more how I envision Friday's runs going

Agree. Save the step backs for Friday 12z.

Encouraging to see that whether GFS does a good phase that gets us a bit into the coastal game or not, it still provides a very nice event Friday evening. Friday HH snowfall looking more and more likely.

Time to restart that “destroy the Apps” project we’ve been working on?

Ok maybe I missed a post or two. JWST will image Jupiter but I think only one of the instruments can because it’s so bright.

The thermal infrared emission from the nightside Earth and the reflected light from the Moon is still WAY too much interference for JWST. Have to block all that out. The one instrument (MIRI I believe) needs to be operating at only ~6-7 degrees above absolute zero. There are spacecraft pictures from Jupiter from Galileo, Voyager 1 and 2, New Horizons, Cassini, and Pioneer. Juno is just the most recent and also has some of the closest images to the cloud tops.

That light you see is just an oncoming train!!!!!

18z gfs vs euro definitely had a familiar feeling to many of the storms this month where the GFS seems to be “seeing” something 1-2 model cycles before the euro and then the euro plays catch up. But then the GFS is walking back some of those changes with 0z and 6z. Will be interesting to see how it plays out today.

It’s a good point. Lol I’m also kinda worried somehow the coastal development would screw up that upper trough snow and leave us skunked in two ways. 72hrs to go…

I know you all are big game hunting, but the last 3 GFS runs looks quite fine to me for MBY. Solid 2-4” with the northern stream trough and falling during Friday HH. That said, I’d certainly say oui/ja/si to the 0z euro.

That’s a fabulous thing.

I’ve been trying to tell ya’ll

NYC sub is comparing this somewhat to “Juno”, the late January 2015 Miller B that famously screwed them at the last second. I got 2.3” from that.

Recall that happened with extreme perfect blocking. Slight difference from Friday.

If this storm happens, THE ONLY way Boston and NYC don't totally crush us in terms of snowfall is if this thing is so wrapped up and west that it runs inland and they rain. Philly-NYC-Bos are all but CERTAINLY going to get more snow than us from this thing. Accept it, deal with it, move on. Again, thank jesusallahbuddah that we're getting ANYTHING from a La Nina unblocked Miller aBcdeFU.

I want to talk about that gorgeous overrunning event GFS has at hr336.

Much like our northern stream shortwave?

Disclaimer: me starting this thread doesn't mean I think It's Happening. Ron Paul is asleep in his basement.

You Randy @stormtracker, where's our new thread? May I suggest that your recent track record...sucks?...so maybe have someone else start it?

Agreed. We'll call this one "Miller DC-usually-screwed".

The most basic A/B discriminator is classically: A: gulf low that moves up the coast B: OH/TN valley low that hops to the coast and moves NEward I think maybe a better discriminator is: A: southern stream dominant. Northern stream often phases in. B: northern stream dominant. Sometimes no southern stream involvement at all. The precip pattern shown on the globals is 100% CLASSIC Miller B for this weekend. It's clearly northern stream dominant, although there is some southern stream involvement.

Ha, we say a ridge axis over Boise is ideal. Couple more runs and we might have an omega block over Boise.