WxUSAF

28F now. Frosty outside.

Let’s gooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!

High of 47. Down to 43 now. Morning low was 39, but I expect we’ll break that easily this evening.

That period after thanksgiving around D9-11 is interesting. Again just wish it was late December instead of late November.

I just finished Book 1 yesterday. Liked it but didn’t love it. Not sure I want to dive into the next. I started the first 20 mins of episode 1 today.

They were still talking about all these weather disruptions last night on NBC nightly news and I just can’t figure out what they’re talking about lol.

Do it

I would vote for a new December thread.

I haven’t seen the EPS that far out in awhile but GEPS and GEFS do look worlds apart in the PAC after D7 or so. Things have been pretty transient across the CONUS with the -NAO and the -WPO seemingly the most persistent long wave patterns impacting us of late. Both have some Nina/QBO/PDO support for being persistent this winter. I hope that trough doesn’t crash into the west coast too much. I don’t mind having a meh snow pattern in early December…we don’t get much snow then anyway. But I definitely don’t want to flush Canada of cold air. That takes 2-3 weeks to recover. Need to have cold air available to tap when we get a chance.

He’s not totally wrong. That -NAO might help keep us a bit more seasonable, but a lot of the country will have well AN temps with that -PNA out west. And it will flush Canada of cold air.

Pretty sure I remember that I left work early that day before it snowed to avoid the mess. My son had basketball practice that evening and I recall seeing the google traffic map disaster. Think that was the day that a lot of NWS warnings were hoisted so nobody was looking at the light event that night when the HECS was around the corner.

Right before the blizzard was one of those commuteagedon events right? We got like 1” right at rush hour with cold road temps?

I haven’t seen the ensemble members, but I’m guessing some sort of trailing waves along the front? Still think flurries next Tuesday are quite possible, at least for the N/W crew with that lake enhanced cold air.

Not sure how the ravens can replace his 0.4 yards per carry…

5 HECS (>15”) in 7 winters 09-10 through 15-16. Pretty amazing run.

I’m not saying I just skimmed through like 200 pages of obs and disco from that storm but I’m not NOT saying it either.

Maybe in mid January peak climo you could say that, but Nov 25-28? Nah .

Setup for post-Thanksgiving definitely is nice in broad terms with wavebreaking driving the big -NAO and a quasi 50-50 low. Then a strong southern stream s/w. But it’s November…and because of that, we might have a better chance of flakes next Tuesday/Wednesday with cold NW flow.

Maybe. Probably. But they’ve been more common this century by far than in the last 20 years of the 20th century. And could have a Nino in 22-23…

Lots of feels reading that thread…

Doug Kammerer winter forecast: https://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/how-much-snow-to-expect-dougs-2021-22-winter-forecast/2883423/ In total it’s pretty in line with most other winter outlooks with AN temps and BN snow. But details are quite different. He’s going for a very warm snowless December and a colder snowier Jan and Feb.

Low of 31 with frost

Just lately?

Lol DCA