WxUSAF

@DT_WXRISK and @MillvilleWx both onboard for the January 96 redux! Getting excited!!

SO. MANY. SHORTWAVES. Going to be a volatile forecast post-Xmas I expect.

Remember last weeks storm looked like a Miller B at range. Was taking the primary through the Midwest with a transfer to Norfolk area.

@SnowDreamer, look a few panels earlier for where the high pressure to the northeast of us there originates. It’s down along the SE coast! It’s a hot flaming garbage airmass, that’s why it’s rain for everyone. That high to the northwest is legit, but it hasn’t arrived in time. It’s a weird and very unusual evolution. And nine days out so I wouldn’t hold your breath on it.

Yeah, the pacific pattern is pretty meh going forward. Because of that, the blocking is mostly just trapping modified Pac air masses underneath. But the blocking gives us a lot of wiggle room to time up a transient -EPO and/or +PNA where we could score bigly. As @Bob Chill used to say, it usually takes 3-4 chances for us to score. Seems likely to me we get at least that many chances between now and ~Jan 2/3. I think something works out by then. Doesn’t mean Jan 96 redux, but with the blocking, potential is higher than usual for a major event.

Euro was really close D8-9. Has this weird frontal timing so it's rain for everyone, but just need to time the cold air a little more like the GFS or GGEM. Lots of chances post-Xmas.

Yeah, I think this might be the better chance for Xmas flakes. Hard to give the post-frontal snow a ton of credence when the GFS is on an island at D4...

This winter has already well past last year. Even before the late month HECS. Kids have had 5 days of sledding and snow play.

Go giants tonight!

Not sure what you mean. Looks like a clear triple phaser March 93 incoming.

Wow, I’m getting a drink to celebrate that happy hour gfs run!!

I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say the Atlantic side might be the best we’ve had since January 16. But the PAC is fair at best. Doesn’t seem hostile per se, but also not very supportive. So there’s certainly a big dog chance, but need to time things out west favorably with a more durable NAO block.

Just took a look at the mean. SLP and 500 look quite nice to me. Is everyone just being rationale about this being 8 days out and so not talking much about it? Seems like we could see an evolution also where we hopefully get something around the 28th and that storm moves up under the block as a 50/50 for a chance around the 30th/31st.

Hi of 42. Lost a good amount of the snow cover today. But drove just a couple miles to Ellicott city near Howard high where the elevation is 150-200ft higher and still almost total snow cover.

Snow rain mix here now

@poolz1 was just coming to say that GEFS definitely has some support for a storm running to our south with a cold high to the north around D9. Not much more to say at this point. ~D12 or so also. Pattern looks active AF from Xmas onward with a stout -NAO and -AO. Rest up now..

Low of 21. Coldest so far this winter.

Top two analogs for the CPC D11 super ensemble are both KUs...3rd is in January 1987. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

Really awesome

mini-NAM'd for Sunday

Vorts flying all over the damn place it seems. With some cold air around I like our chances, but I don’t see anything as a long track scenario.

Can’t avoid the 60F+ Xmas eve. It’s happening.

12/18: 0.1" Total: 3.4". 0.1" behind last winter's total!