John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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GFS is just crushing Memphis this run.
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The RGEM is one extreme and the NAM is the exact opposite extreme.
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They extended the hours as well. It was 7am to 7pm here. Now it lasts until 11am Monday morning.
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Euro AI was a big hitter for the forum area it appeared. Looked like 4-6 inches north of 40, and 6 to 8 south of 40, especially in western areas.
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I will say this, heavy snow turning to rain or freezing rain, while a system is to our south or southeast isn't common imby. Cutters and a front end thump, yes. But not with sliders/Miller A systems. Falling snow helps keep the column cool and the flow of WAA isn't usually quite what it is with a cutter.
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Darts with a blindfold at this point it seems. Solutions from super suppressed to WAA screamer are on the table. It kinda just lost it's punch on the GFS. The Euro did that last night at 0z as well.
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The ICON has snow along the Ky and VA border areas Sunday. It has a beautiful slider by next Friday. Sorry for the confusion. I should have added more info to the post.
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The UKIE has a LP just south of New Orleans at the end. Barely grazing Tennessee at that hour but I don't mind at all where it's at at the end.
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While a big snow is rare here. Winter storms in Florida, the Canadian solution, is even more rare. So I have to assume it's wrong.
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I'm not sure what drove it, as far as the rain snow line. I assume purely a SW to NE line. Tazewell got an inch, but the Newcomb station a few miles from me as the crow flies, but under 1000 feet elevation, just about the lowest spot in Campbell not underwater, also got 5 inches. So it wasn't elevation driven.
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Also had 5 inches from that one, then the 850s warmed and we got 1.5 inches of cold rain.
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Beautiful slider on the ICON. Nice 3 to 5 inch snowfall for most of our region.
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Probably wrong but the ICON drops heavy snow along the border counties with the current weekend event.
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The red is pretty much over me. I will note that they seem to be looking at it a bit oddly imo, as they are forecasting the highest elevations as the most likely ice spots when it generally is just the opposite. Cold gets trapped in lower bowls and elevations, especially above 2500 feet or so, are way warmer from the WAA.
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The 18z Euro was possibly going to make a run for glory. Tough winter for the models so far. They are are struggling and all over the place.
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I got no forecast product but my forecast now says snow changing to freezing rain with a high of 32 Sunday, freezing rain Sunday evening with the temp falling to 28 before beginning to rise later. MRX said the global models were too fast in scouring out the sub-freezing air across the area. That the couldn't quite handle low level cold well enough to see how it sticks in valleys.
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It's basically whiteout conditions.
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JKL posted a winter storm watch for their border counties. Modeling is showing warning criteria ice here.
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It's coming a connective snow burst now. Very heavy snow and windy.
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The EURO op is way warmer/wetter than the EPS, which remains in the supression/colder camp.
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Then comes the Euro......
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Steady snow has returned here. Figured it was over.
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Not sure why the GFS shows some light sleet to start the system over the east. It shows it over me with a -5 850 and 26 degree surface temp. Mid and West forum getting a good snow so far though.
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Had a surprise dusting this morning from this. Models did their best to show nothing doing with it, MRX even took it out of the forecast yesterday.
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North of 40 Knox to Nashville is .2 to .5 ice on the RGEM, with .1 to .2 south of 40.
