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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The new NAM replacement is out to 53hrs and it's a little south of the NAM but not by a ton. Its snow shield is almost right along 40 in East Tennessee and west of I-81. But it will likely be getting better for the East towards 60. Memphis gets 4 inches of snow and changes over to sleet and freezing rain on it. What a nightmare that would be, if zr gets involved.
  2. John1122
    RAP at the end of it's run.
  3. John1122
    12z FV3 still snowing heavily Plateau and east at 60.
  4. John1122
    ICON keeps things pretty steady, it may be wrong but it's remarkably consistent.
  5. John1122
    GFS is furthest south because it's flatter, weaker and fastest out it looks like.
  6. John1122
    GFS was basically a repeat of 0z. Its the furthest south right now with the NAM being the furthest North. Usually they are in closer agreement like the UKIE and Euro, but those two are also at odds.
  7. John1122
    It's on a very wonky island right now.
  8. John1122
    The ICON went back into super beast mode,
  9. John1122
    RGEM is a boom again though not as much around Memphis.\
  10. John1122
    The RGEM and ICON look around what all other modeling besides the NAM/UKIE are showing. Still not to the end yet though.
  11. John1122
    Looks like all of the Eastern valley except for Bradley and Polk are in the Winter Storm Watch. We may come close to a state wide watch.
  12. John1122
    I'm honest to goodness not even sure what to make of that NAM run. Sends a massive dry warm nose north while a monster snow/sleet and freezing rain band sits over the same area for a good 12 hours then pops a low off the South Carolina coast, but the precip band still sits in the same place for a few more hours.
  13. John1122
    The NAM has went crazy, amped up and raining.
  14. John1122
    The 06z NAM is having the dewpoint issue again. It has my DP at 0 at hour 45 and just above the surface at around 900mb it has the dewpoint at -30 degrees.
  15. John1122
    The new Hi-Res NOAA model that is in it's early stages. It goes to 18hrs most runs but goes to 60 some runs. This will replace the NAM/RAP/HRRR. Where it had gotten to through 60.
  16. John1122
    03z SREF 10:1 mean. These would be higher ratio'd.
  17. John1122
    The 03Z RAP at 51 which is the equivalent of the 54 hour panels on the 00z suite.
  18. John1122
    The Euro was a little north of the GFS that run. And it brought much more QPF than the prior two runs.
  19. John1122
    Chattanooga, Knoxville and even Northern Alabama getting hit good, Northern Miss made out like a bandit.
  20. John1122
    Euro is probably going to look like the GFS.
  21. John1122
    The Euro is going to be south it appears. Hopefully not back its near nothing runs from yesterday.
  22. John1122
    I'm not as good as Lil Flash but this seems to be the window. The UKIE/NAM are around the middle line to the NW line. The RGEM/ICON are around the middle line with some spillover. The GGEM and GFS are around the middle line and tilted toward the southern line. That's our window and I feel like it's set. Some but probably not all in the window will see 3+ inches and some will be on the outside looking in ala the Kermit picture from a few days ago.
  23. John1122
    Right now the NAM/UKIE are West/NW edge of guidance. The RGEM and ICON are in the middle. The GFS and Canadian are the southeast envelope.
  24. John1122
    The UKIE remains NW, even more than the NAM. 3+ inch line from Middleboro down to Campbell and far NW Morgan and Cumberland etc. Falls off fast east and southeast of that line. Monster run through the west and mid-state.
  25. John1122
    Sort of but bigger. About the southern half of Jefferson and a good part of Sevier co. The mean is a bit more East Tn centric than I'd noticed. The 3.5+ inch mean is basically Scott down to Cumberland and points east. Surprised that no one out west made it to 3.5 inches. These are all 10:1 btw.
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