John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The Euro struggled last year with the snow event until 24 hours out. It was weaker and south before finally trending back. It never did catch up qpf wise and missed the 8 to 10+ totals.
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Perfect angle to avoid the downsloping in the NE areas. Not sure why the GFS has to do that to McMinn Co to break up the pinks
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My brother in Hixson has a considerably different weather life than I do. Always way hotter in summer, and usually around 8-10 degrees warmer in winter. It's 24 here right now and 32 at his house.
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The RGEM was lesser by a bit than 12z. It pretty much has the same amount of QPF as 12z but with 6 more hours of precip.
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RGEM just won't lose that 725mb warm layer along the southern border that causes the sleet. The Canadian started it. It's only on their models that shows it now.
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Probably most concerning for far eastern areas is the dreaded downslope warming they mentioned. That would possibly see some freezing rain or sleet in those areas, as they said the surface remains below freezing. However they did say they expect all snow for everyone.
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Euro AI is .4 minimum for the entire forecast area, that's in southern Kentucky. .45 northern areas along the border. .5 along I-40, .6+ south of 40. Ratios probably 12/13:1 north, 11-1 along 40, 10-1 south.
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NAM with 4-6 across the area at the end and still snowing across almost the entire region.
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It's actually still snowing here as well. That's the sign of a powerful winter storm, 24-36 hours of light snow in it's wake, often not seen by models. Last year was the same.
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The EURO looks pretty close to the NBM (slightly more snow than the NBM).
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Euro is looking better than the UKIE so far at least.
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Misses most of the board to the SE with basically less than 1 inch for anyone North of 40/West of 75.
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There comes the UKIE with pain for mby and most of the board. I wouldn't be surprised if the EURO follows with something similar.
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The GFS was back to a nice hit in the timeframe Carvers noted above. 3-6 inches from Nashville east basically, 1-2 along the southern end of the eastern valley, and out west.
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.1 to .2 QPF can be a big difference in snow totals, as we all know.
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For the system that just passed the Euro had the follow totals at 00z Sunday. Knox .9 at the airport area. Actual total 1.09 Tri .66 actual .87 Chatt 1.02 actual 1.22 MBY 1.07 actual 1.8 Oak Ridge 1.05 actual 1.43
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We seem to be sitting in as good a spot as we can be for a storm that starts in 72 hours for our forum area. Also, virtually all gulf systems seem to verify with a larger precip footprint than modeled and with more QPF.
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How is the NBM looking? That will entirely dictate the forecast/watches/warnings that are released.
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It's been in the flat camp for days but with a precip field that keeps growing north. I've went from .3 to .5 qpf on it since yesterday. It's heaviest snow axis is similar to the GFS.
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It was really bringing the QPF with it. Most other models have slid SE today but the RGEM/Canadian haven't. The Euro AI was already there where the others are heading.
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I'm curious because it usually just expands on the RGEM by a bit. I think the RGEM was set to put out double digit totals for some parts of the area.
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I find when models show unprecedented events at range, they almost always don't happen. Dallas would have broken seasonal snowfall records in a 7 day span based on runs a few days ago. Same when it's showing accumulating snow in central Florida.
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4 inches + for the entire valley footprint that run. Did trend south a slight bit, I hope that doesn't keep happening over the next 72 hours.
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The RGEM had sleet in the Southeastern areas but it was bringing it big time to the region as it ended, more than the NAM or ICON at 84. The ICON looks less good for the western areas and was down a little overall for everyone. Granted, it was probably the most aggressive with snow totals at 6z.
