John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Canadian suite is slower like the others were. Every model is now about the same with QPF at 0z, euro pending. The hope is that they don't get any worse. It would still be a nice 3 to 5 inches for most of us.
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Canadian finally ran and joined the less qpf camp. RGEM is running as well. I expect it will too.
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These come north 95 percent of the time, and usually it's to our detriment. Hopefully it manages to in this case too, but for the better. If things are getting worse at this time tomorrow I'll have my towel in hand, ready to toss it in.
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It wasn't great for mby but it nearly missed the whole forum at 12z.
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The UKIE is light years better than it's 12z disaster that was the first shot fired in the bad runs today.
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The GEFS joins the camp of ensembles with more qpf than the op. The snow mean is as good or better than 18z for some areas.
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I'm hoping to salvage 2-3 inches here. I think 40 and south will be okay for 3 to 5+
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GFS down about .10 across the board. Hopefully things stabilize. It makes no sense for a potent, deepening low to track along the gulf and for it to not produce more precip. If it was 35 degrees with bad 850s that same low strength/track would produce 1.5 inches of qpf.
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It's rare to see ensembles with more QPF than the op but the Euro was and the ICON ensembles are pretty similar in QPF. Usually just by their nature of having to incorporate a few misses, they are drier than their ops.
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Everything is moving faster too. It's arriving earlier and getting out of dodge.
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I expect the GFS to be weaker and south. It did the same for a run last year when the Euro put out the super weak solution I posted earlier.
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The ICON is 1mb less deep and 10 miles south and it cut QPF in half. And for some reason it popped a weak high over Savannah and there's a small pocket of snow underneath it with rain everywhere else.
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The RGEM must be busted.
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Unfortunately, the ICON is weakening as it heads east. Good bit less QPF vs 18z over this way.
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I can't remember if it or the late Rufus was supposed to replace the NAM.
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A bit better in West Tennessee at 66 vs 72 at 18z.
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The ICON is a little more beefy in Arkansas than it was at 18z.
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The FV3 was really wound up at hr 60. Snow was reaching East TN and it was at 1004mb south of Louisiana.
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I think so with that path and a deepening storm. It increased QPF in northern Kentucky by .2/.3 in some spots through 78, but only by around .1 in Tennessee.
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I actually still think that's a very low QPF output for the area with a deepening low on that track. It vastly improved the precip shield into Kentucky, tossing qpf up into Ohio when it was dry at 18z over northern Kentucky, but it didn't increase QPF as much in Tennessee.
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So far the NAM is warmer with a bit more QPF.
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NAM is amped up. May be mixing issues for some here. Definitely for the gulf coast states.
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The NAM looks like it's going to be a pretty good run.
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It's better/sharper at 500 than the 18z op was but not as good as the GFS was for instance.
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The 18z Euro was late with some northern stream energy. The other models drop it in across Oklahoma, the Euro dropped it in across Tennessee. The system comes out less organized/strong on the Euro and the 850 low is weak.
