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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    I would love to see it come. You're welcome. Don't often even see model runs within 4 days that cover basically the entire Tennessee valley footprint with at least some snow on the ground.
  2. John1122
  3. John1122
    Several bonkers solutions. The ggem is just about as good as it gets for the entire Valley footprint.
  4. John1122
    The Canadian snowmap is similar to quite a few past snow events here. Actually looks like a small scale version of the February 1996 one I wrote about with a similar snow area just south of Memphis with increasing totals as you head towards East Tn/SEKy/SWVA.
  5. John1122
    0z GFS keeps the snow going on the back side of the Monday/Tuesday system. The GFS spits out 3-5 inches from the Plateau through most of the central sections of the valley, including Nashville. The Canadian is leaning towards the GFS solution as well, just a bit further south and east with the snow shield so the heaviest snow runs from Southern Ark, Northern Miss to the eastern half of the valley, where it's significant.
  6. John1122
    2, 11, 18, 27 and 40 were also pretty healthy for parts of the forum area. 11 dropped 10-13 inches in Memphis/East Arkansas. 28, I admit, would make me pretty happy since it gave me about 2 feet. Fairly encouraging that there are very few blanks in the 50 members. Quite a few show at least an inch for a large amount of the forum area, a good number in the 1-3 inch range as well.
  7. John1122
    18z GFS was pretty aggressive again on the snow for early next week. It would touch just about all of us with at least flakes in the air.
  8. John1122
    GFS bringing shenanigans in a few days.
  9. John1122
    It's really hard to get anything done here with an unfavorable Pacific. But a favorable one can render the Atlantic meaningless. February 2015 was a +NAO/+AO combination. The Pacific drove the entire pattern. Big EPO ridge suppressed the storm track in the East and delivered major cold. Temps finished around -8 to -12 for the month in the region with multiple winter storms.
  10. John1122
    There were a lot of blanks and a few heavy hitters on the EPS. For pie in the sky fantasy, member 34 casually dropped about 2 feet on Nashville and 12+ over most of the region. It alone would likely skew the average.
  11. John1122
    After trying to figure how TYS recorded only 8 inches of snow for the February 1st-2nd 1996 event, I went and looked at the hourly data from Feb 1st and 2nd of that year. I recall the snow starting in Knoxville before it did here as it worked it's way South to North, and it had started here by 7-8 pm. Looking back at old news footage at the time, Knox was reporting snow by 8-9 pm as well. This was a cold event with temps in the upper teens to mid 20s in the area. Snow fell in Knox as the temp dropped quickly from 28 at the start to 19. This should have produced higher ratio snows, and that is reflected in observations that are harder to find than the normal big 3 reporting stations you'll find looking at MRX data, which are Tri/Chatt/Tys. On the hourly reports at Knox from Feb 1st freezing precip starts in the form of freezing rain/fog with 10.5 mile vis, and .02 inches of precip fall as freezing rain. The reports then indicated only fog in Knox, but .12 precip falls, then another period with .12 precip falls, this time the temp is in the 20s and the visibility has fallen to 1 mile at observation time. None of this is recorded as snow. Official data says snowfall 0.00, precip .26. I'm 99.9 percent sure that both periods of .12 were in the form of snow. From midnight to 1am on the 2nd, Knoxville records another .12 precip, once again it's labeled as fog. with a visibility of 1 mile. So .36 has fallen at this point, with 0.00 listed as anything but fog. The next observation says snow .13, followed by snow .15. The snow continues with the aforementioned temps falling into the 10s and finally an observed precip amount of .86 falling as snow. The official snowfall is claimed to be 8 inches from that .86, which I think is absolutely wrong based on QPF, temp profiles and observations all around the site. Knoxville had 1.37 fall as frozen but has missing data listed for snowfall and snow depth for the 1st. I figure the .86 with a lot of it falling at temps below 25 would be close to 10 inches on it's own. I'd guess Tys probably actually had 12+ inches of snow like every other station in it's immediate vicinity. But as Carvers mentioned, it's the year of inexplicably missing snowfall data at the big 3 reporting sites from that time frame.
  12. John1122
    Intense little bands keep streaming across the area. Some 1/2 mile or less visibility at times. Probably 1/3rd inch since dark.
  13. John1122
    Another round of heavy snow working through. Coated back what had melted earlier.
  14. John1122
    Had a very heavy snow shower about 45 minutes ago. I enjoy seeing it fall if nothing else. Looks like we could get some more flakes in a week or so.
  15. John1122
    Not as much as I wanted (it never is) but I'm over 2 inches on the season with the first two events and it's only the 2nd day of winter. Hopefully I can get back to at least an average year.
  16. John1122
    Basically the same story here as Daniel Boone, around an inch on decks and cars, less than half that managed to stay on the ground.
  17. John1122
    Not much going on here. Snow shower runs by and lasts 5 minutes then it stops. Looks like Western Kentucky is filling in pretty well upstream.
  18. John1122
    Heavier precip is snow, lighter is drizzle. Down to 38 degrees.
  19. John1122
    You can tell this is northern stream and not southern stream energy. Winds are N at 12 and another bit of precip just came through as a mix of rain and snow at 40 degrees. Last event it had to get to 34 to change over due to the S flow.
  20. John1122
    First few showers have been moving through, temp fell fairly quickly from 49 to 43. West wind at 8.
  21. John1122
    WVLT's current meteorologist really needs to learn the area. He just came on during the halftime of Chiefs Raiders, ran whatever house model they used that showed .1 to .3 over non Smokies areas and 1 inch at the highest areas and declared the "the highest elevations of the Smokies may get an inch at most". I'll be shocked if Newfound doesn't get 5 times that and LeConte might see a foot with it being the primary NW flow spot in the entire southern Apps.
  22. John1122
    I've been watching football and didn't even notice that MRX had issued wide spread winter products. Kind of surprising. Did models ramp up snowfall totals? Looked earlier like BL temps would be an issue below 2000 feet. I'll take this any day of the week. Tonight Cloudy. A chance of rain in the evening, then snow likely or a chance of rain after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Monday Cloudy. Snow likely or a chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of rain or snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Total snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
  23. John1122
    Quite a bit of thunder and just drenching rain today and currently. I am about to cross 75 inches on the year and will soon break the yearly record imby for the last 100 years, though that record was set last year. Amazing that we had one solid month of drought in the middle of it.
  24. John1122
    Imagine this is the NAM doing its thing but MRX has me with a 70 percent chance of snow showers Monday.
  25. John1122
    Rogersville reported 17 inches from the storm. So the reports you heard were accurate about heavy snow there.
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