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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    GFS has nearly forum wide accumulations.
  2. John1122
    NAM has some good looking snow showers moving across the area and another clipper poised to follow at the end of it's run.
  3. John1122
    The Euro has now moved some pretty cold air into our region inside of D10. Looking back from around January 1st, I'm actually more surprised we've seen several wintery chances from then til Jan 15th or so than I am that the cold looks to be moving in around January 20th and beyond. I expected much less favorable weather during these past couple of weeks and modeling was showing that at the time. But as we approach verification time the NAO tends to remain negative and we stay on the cool/warm roller coaster with embedded snow/wintry chances based on timing. We have a good cold shot coming with another wintry chance in a few days.
  4. John1122
    Regarding the SSW, it's likely fueling the continued -NAO, which is keeping the SE ridge just enough at bay to keep us from having 0 chance at anything but 60s and cutters.
  5. John1122
    Good write up by MRX this morning about the potential for snow Friday night into Saturday morning and how models are very possibly underdoing the precip that falls as snow. MRX also mentioned there will be no temp issues and all areas will see frozen that see precip.
  6. John1122
    Later in the run the GFS has a huge snow event and near 0 cold. But it's also likely to change significantly by 06z too.
  7. John1122
    The OP GFS after day 7 is not worth getting excited over or upset about. Keep in mind 6 hours ago it tossed the arctic into our backyard at the same time frame as it's showing a poor pattern now.
  8. John1122
    The 0z ICON has a perfect southern slider that is really nice for Western areas especially but gets the whole state basically. The GFS has multiple 1-2+ inch events over the next week or so and it really hammers elevated areas in the East with big time upslope.
  9. John1122
    I wouldn't be surprised to have some AN out there but it looks to be transitional. Those forecasts usually center on D11.
  10. John1122
    Some pretty good analogs at 500mb showing up on the EPS today. It's forecasting a -EPO in the offing too. We have a -PNA but when the EPO is right that isn't a huge deal, it just means the trough is likely oriented NW to SE or something close to that. In 2014 we had a big Valentines day snow event with a -PNA of about 1.1. In the long range at 500 the EPS has a very similar look to Jan 9th-11th 2011. There was a very snowy period for about 10 days with a nice overrunning event right there around the 10th. It snowed multiple days in a row here during that time frame and we had below 0 cold here on the Plateau with highs in the upper 10s and lower 20s. Even Knoxville had nearly 5 inches of snow on the 10th with only .3ish qpf. That also had a -PNA but a nice -EPO/-NAO combination.
  11. John1122
    It's been bad for that this year. It had the storm hitting Miss/Lousiana right now down toward the Yucatan at one point. It had the big west Texas/Oklahoma storm going East of the Apps for a while.
  12. John1122
    Just reading the news where Spain got a giant blizzard and here we are seeing snow way down deep in the South for the second time in the last few years. Wild how places that rarely see snow seem to get it more than places in Tennessee that should see snow every year. We are also overdue for a major snowstorm. A 15-20 inch type event. They used to happen every few years in the Valley region somewhere but haven't really been a thing in a long time now outside of elevation.
  13. John1122
    Another day with snow on the ground. Certainly blowing past the last few winters in that regard.
  14. John1122
    It's been cloudy for days now. The same pattern that just dumped moisture all of 2020 here. Thick clouds and 30 right now with the occasional flurry.
  15. John1122
    I don't believe in jinxing but appreciate anyone who does! I hope you all score something!
  16. John1122
    Went ahead and posted a thread for this system. It's almost universally modeled that at least Mississippi gets snow here. I know we have a Miss poster and would actually welcome more or even Louisiana posters. We welcome anyone in the SEC footprint*. *SC/Fla/GA posters are doody heads with their own subforum.
  17. John1122
    There's still a decent shot some of us see some wintry weather with wave 2, and to me this is all bonus stuff. The truly wintry pattern resulting from the SSW should start being felt mid-month and beyond. MRX has this delightful sentence to end their AFD this morning.
  18. John1122
    Currently in the everyone but the Canadian loses the next system timeframe. It's crazy how much better the GGEM has been than the GFS/Euro/UKIE this winter for snow systems.
  19. John1122
    Well it was down towards the Yucatan a few runs ago, so definitely north! With the blocking over the top there's generally a limit to how far north it's going to make it though.
  20. John1122
    This would be one of the best winter periods in years on the forum were it to verify. Unless you were in that small screw zone too far east for one wave and too far west for the other. To have this on the Euro a few years ago I'd have been super confident. Super wary instead!
  21. John1122
    Right now the EURO is the furthest north and west, which is one of it's biases. GFS is way East which is one of its biases. The Canadian was middle ground and was basically great for Mississippi and most of Tennessee. Especially along and S of 40.
  22. John1122
    108-114 snow accumulation. 114-120 120-126
  23. John1122
    Big run of the Euro on the 2nd wave for Western areas. Was much better in general than 12z. Still has the same issues as 12z more east but overall a huge winter storm for parts of the forum.
  24. John1122
    Crushing N Miss and West Tennessee at 114.
  25. John1122
    Wave 2 looking good early for Arkansas, Mississippi and SWTN.
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