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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Models are all struggling, as usual. They are throwing out superwarmth and then backing off as verification time approaches. I like some of the looks we are seeing, especially for further western areas of the valley. This side of the Apps looks better than the east side for sure.
  2. John1122
    GFS goes BN at 132 and except for about 48 hours, stays BN til 384. Some well BN stuff in there. So it's reeling it in, just no idea if it's right or not.
  3. John1122
    Can very much get onboard with this look just after New Years on the Euro. Polar Vortex is split and and west best -NAO is popping up.
  4. John1122
    The conflicting MJO likely accounts for a lot of the model flipping around. I read recently that a large part of the EPS was based on the MJO prediction. With the MJO showing conflicting phases it's likely keying on one or the other and rolling from there.
  5. John1122
    Euro flipped from 5-15 AN valley wide for New Years Eve morning to 3-6 BN for the same time frame from the 12z to 00z run. A step towards the GEFS bringing in cooler air. Euro is a warm bias model too.
  6. John1122
    GEFS goes BN at hour 174 and stays there all but about 48 hours all the way til day 16. Much better look over Alaska at 500mb on there. Just have to see if it's a head fake or not. But modeling in general has looked much better over Alaska the last few runs vs a couple days ago when the EPS and GEFS sat the polar vortex over interior Alaska and just left it there smashing the attempted ridging in the EPO region.
  7. John1122
    Most mets I've seen keep saying the active STJ will not allow for a SE ridge. We might still be warm but it will be due to Pacific air in the pattern. The PV not being in Alaska is a huge improvement, it tends to get stuck there when it goes there and it quashes any -EP0 and also floods more pacific air into the pattern.
  8. John1122
    Larry Cosgove today said he liked snow chances from the Rockies to the Apps through the first 3 weeks of January. Said southern tracks that cut the Carolinas would be possible, didn't like I-95 corridor in a broad Rockies to Apps trough set up. Mentioned there's not going to be blistering cold, but cold enough air to work for a lot of areas west of the Apps. Sounds like a good set up for us, especially the mid and western Valley.
  9. John1122
    12z EPS at day 10 looks even better than the OP. Polar vortex into north central Canada rather than Alaska. We don't want the pv to get into Alaska at all.
  10. John1122
    The 12z Euro looks better at day 10 than the 00z did. 00z had the PV deep into Alaska which turned the flow into the lower 48 off the Pacific. Well north of Alaska on the 12z. Looks way more workable here. Blocking in Eastern Canada, blocking on the West Coast. Flow coming more off Russia and across the pole straight into the lower 48.
  11. John1122
    Temperatures are near normal now through 2/3rds of the month, mainly on the strength of two days that were +15-20 in the area. Without those I'm probably -1.5-2.
  12. John1122
    The GEFS was bone chilling and the cold is getting into the day 10 window instead of hanging out at 14-16.
  13. John1122
    The New Years and beyond time frame looks like it's setting up very nicely if the EPS is to be believed. It's slid towards the look the GEFS was showing a few days ago, but starting maybe 3 days later than the GEFS. Crazy that the EPS flipped to the GEFS look right after the GEFS flipped to the prior Euro warm look.
  14. John1122
    It's been colder than I expected the last several days, maybe I hadn't been paying attention with all the talk of coming warmth and was expecting it to be warm. Had lows in the upper 10s and highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s several days in a row now.
  15. John1122
    I found the AAM disco from SD and Webb interesting. Per them, it looks like we will flip to a favorable phase around Christmas per the Euro. It's unfavorable phase apparently caused the big SE death ridges in late season the last two years. Lots of good disco in that thread there and in here too. You guys should be scientists!
  16. John1122
    EPS is still looking like we end the warmth around New Years and there's beginning to be some EPS ens support for something wintry in the 12-31 to 1-3 timeframe.
  17. John1122
    GFS pops a +PNA in the long range. Sets up major cross polar flow with cold air deep into the south and snow in the deep south. Has shown this a few runs in a row. Will see if it reels it in.
  18. John1122
    I'd as soon get the warm started and over with. Every year we have 2-5 weeks on and off with warm/cold it seems. Though last year was more warm and more warm. I can't complain much so far. More snow already than the last two seasons and snow in the air again today. If the EPO goes negative as forecast that should open up more possiblites. It'd be nice to get the PNA in decent shape for true winter too. I always hold out hope for January 15th to February 15th as that is our best winter time frame. It takes the least amount of things going exactly right as we ever manage during that time frame. Even the best winters we've ever had in the area had at least 3 or 4 weeks of AN in winter.
  19. John1122
    Snow showers clipping through here. A few decent rates.
  20. John1122
    Not sure about other areas, but we had 4 inches of snow just a couple of days after that severe weather event in late February 1993.
  21. John1122
    Heavy rain and frequent thunder here. Very windy earlier, but it's died down some in the storm.
  22. John1122
    Thundering frequently. I expect flakes go fly soon.
  23. John1122
    We will see how it goes, but the week of Christmas to New Years looks like a -EPO/-NAO with the PNA heading from negative towards neutral. The AO looks to go modestly negative too. If we can reel all those in, the warmth should end towards week 2.5/3.
  24. John1122
    The model depicts rain overhead imby with a surface temp of 37 on the 22nd timeframe, but the sounding shows this.
  25. John1122
    This is why their official snowfall data is so inaccurate. The 911 center isn't even located in Jacksboro and it's surrounded by all pavement. There probably was only an inch on the pavement.
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