Jump to content

John1122

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,921

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    2012 ended up being the lowest summer ice extent on record due to a very unfavorable pattern that developed in spring and summer over the Arctic. 2012 at this time of year wasn't remotely the lowest ice extent on record. We are slightly ahead of 2012 right now and overall this winter has seen gains in Arctic ice that easily outpaced average. Currently sea is is ahead of 2019 on this date, well ahead of 2018 on this date, well ahead of 2017 on this date, well ahead of 2016 on this date, ahead of 2015 on this date, ahead of 2014 on this date, roughly tied with 2013 on this date, ahead of 2011 on this date, roughly tied with 2010, behind 2009 and 2008, ahead of 2007, ahead of 2006, ahead of 2005, behind 2004-2001. So in the last 20 years we are currently ahead on Arctic sea ice vs 14 of the 20 years. So the +AO has done pretty good work in the Arctic this year.
  2. John1122
    GFS and Canadian are both feet in with the Northern stream. The Euro is less impressed. The Euro hasn't been good with the southern stream beyond 48 hours this year. Not had any notable Northern stream stuff to judge.
  3. John1122
    Looks like 10-20 degrees BN for temps February 25th-29th. Opens a window for some possible northern stream clipper or flow snow. Been a rare thing this year.
  4. John1122
    I'd like to see an event with temps around 26-29 instead of 32/33. BL temps always rule the roost. Even being at 32 vs 34 is huge. Maybe not in the cards for the rest of the season though. Today did make me appreciate just how hard it snowed in April 1987 and in a couple of other April events I had. My accumulation today came in two waves when very heavy snow fell at over an inch per hour rates. Less than that and it just snowed on top of the snow but it was melting from underneath at an equal or greater rate of the snow falling. I had a 3 inch event in April 1997 or 1998 when I got all 3 inches in 1.5 hours of silver dollars. April 1987 was basically 12 hours of silver dollars. We had that today but in shorter bursts. I had .30 QPF today. Looks like some areas around Knoxville towards Morristown had much more. Close to an inch in some places. I wish I could have given you guys my temps.
  5. John1122
    wrong thread.
  6. John1122
    As we work through yet another in the seemingly endless parade of ridiculously warm winters, this was 5 years ago today.
  7. John1122
    If the Euro jumps on board tonight I'm going to hope for an inch. If not I'll expect snow showers with no accumulations and hope I'm wrong. It's amazing how many times I've been too far north the last few years.
  8. John1122
    MRX rolling with the Euro based on their snow map. Can't really blame them.
  9. John1122
    It was a Tuesday-Wedneday timeframe. Around Feb 11th and 12th I think.
  10. John1122
    This is the MRX discussion from when Robert made the call about enhanced snow over East Tennessee in 2014. I don't quite think it is the same set up as here.
  11. John1122
    I won't trust it or really any model until 24 hours or less out.
  12. John1122
    The NAM is a state length slammer.
  13. John1122
    Why can't the Euro show the NAM solution?? I do not expect this to happen and hope I'm very wrong.
  14. John1122
    After the 00z suite, pretty sure I'm out of chances. Not willing to hang my hat on the ICON. But there may be some flakes in the air from Memphis to Tueplo to Huntsville to Chattanooga.
  15. John1122
    Front end thump comes and goes for our area. It's looking good for southern areas. Crazy how those areas average the same or less snow than our general area but have just crushed our forum area year after snowwise. No idea why it's gotten so much harder to snow specifically in the Tennessee valley but other areas of the South seem to get about their normal amount every year.
  16. John1122
    Frontogenesis at 700mb in purple. Also waa into the snowgrowth zone aiding moisture transport
  17. John1122
    The NAM 2 of the last 3 runs has shown very favorable frontogenesis setting up over various parts of Tennessee, when it does the precip is here and in a good amount. The frontgenesis 700mb maps aren't out yet for the 18z run but I suspect we will see it here when they come out.
  18. John1122
    The NAM at 81-84 seems pretty decent for parts of the forum area as well. Keep in mind it's the NAM at 84.
  19. John1122
    Big jump north on the Euro for the system Thursday. Precip field moved from South of Atlanta at 12z to SW Virgina at 00z. A light stripe of snow falls across a lot of the state early Thursday that run. Will see if this is a trend toward even more moisture for us or not. The HP in Iowa and moisture in Texas is a classic for us normally.
  20. John1122
    I think the HP is being over modeled. The models and especially the GFS roll these big 1045-1050 highs down all the time and they verify at 1035 when they actually arrive.
  21. John1122
    Had a few snow showers here this afternoon.
  22. John1122
    My snow season lately lasts into April. I've had far more snow in March/April than January the last several years. I used to rarely get through March without a 3+ inch event. Its usually gone 36 hours later though.
  23. John1122
    .91 in the bucket since around 3am this morning. MRX has most of the area in the 4-6 inch range by Thursday. Not sure that flash flooding will be an issue but a lot of slow rising water issues will happen at that point. I'm now at 8.17 inches of rain already for the month and had 7.35 last month. So already 8 inches or so above normal for 2020.
  24. John1122
    Not anything wintry on the Euro but 5-10 inches of rain basically valley wide over the 10 days. Basically everyone from Murfreesboro east is 300-400 percent above normal for the last 30 days according to the AHPS Precip Analysis maps. If we get to February 19th with 10-15 inches of rain in the bucket for the month, that will be staggering for flooding unless spring turns dry.
  25. John1122
    Not a pretty picture on the 18z GFS Mon-Thurs morning.
×
×
  • Create New...