John1122

Webb noted the EPS is struggling with the -NAO still. It's very hard to have that and a SE Ridge. The best thing about right now, is that winter hasn't really started for any of us yet. We can get snow in December but it's much less common than the months to come. We are still a solid month away from the beginning of prime snow/cold climatology for the area. If we are at January 10th, have received nothing and still hoping for a SSW or some kind of blocking to actually happen we might be in trouble, but even then we've had later winters that turned severe. I believe the aforementioned 2015 had a cold shot around New Years then warmed for a long stretch before mid February brought about 2 weeks of the most brutal winter conditions many of us had experienced since the mid 1990s.

Curious to see if the weeklies have changed. Saw some tweets earlier that they are performing horribly so far this fall and early winter, having completely missed several troughs/cold shots. Carvers has noted they struggle as the seasons change. Will have to see if they stabilize at some point and start actually coming close.

GFS was awesome that run. The Rex Block Jax mentioned is there over Alaska. Banter really, but heading into Christmas eve.

The CFS is crazy cold for January. We'd be rocking some 1970s winter if it was right.

Leaves have been gone here a couple of weeks but the rain was nice to get them good and soaked again. After being massively above normal through July, we finally had some BN rainfall months lately. Nothing severe here but some of the loudest thunder in a while. Must have had a really close cloud to ground strike.

With the still falling QBO, the pattern we've experience in the past when it was below -20 in winter months, the correlation between that and BN winters during Ninas, the cold November to winter correlation and the fact that our source region looks to be very cold, I think we flip cold at some point for an extended time. However, we have also seen a lot of climo that behaves the opposite of normal lately, so I'm certainly not confident.

This is why op runs will keep bouncing around the next few days, likely from one extreme to the other. Seems like that is often a precursor to a major pattern change, which the GFS at times seems to rush and the Euro at times seems to delay.

Also wanted to add, I know we have a few posters that are very near the track area. I hope you guys and your family are okay.

Investigation by the NWS to see if the huge tornado super cell was one continuous track or if it lifted at times and respawned new ones. If it's one tornado it will remove the tri-state tornado from the record books as longest single track on record.

Looked like the 06z had a storm like Carvers mentioned, a low pops on an Arctic front and moves up through the Piermont and there's a statewide snow event to ring in the first day of winter.

From what Larry noted, we apparently do want it to hit the COD in 8. He said it was even more wintry if it hit the COD there and went counterclockwise into 7.

Saw a post from GAWx/Larry, who is an encyclopedia of weather history. He noted for Atlanta (and likely here by extension here, though we aren't always cold in the same way) that the MJO in low amplitude/near or just inside the cod phase 8 was the absolute coldest for the area in January. It was -6, -4 in low Ph 7, -3 in low 1,2, and 3. Surprisingly, phase 6 cod/low was -2. Oddly, phase 7 high amplitude was -1 in Jan, normal in phase 8 high, and above average in all other phases in high amplitude. 4/5 were above normal low or high but way above normal high 5.

I seem to recall that 14-15 had big event winter for nearly everyone and several for some of us. It's the year of collapsed boat docks here due to heavy snow and ice that came in several waves. Knox had a 6 inch snow and a monster ice storm. Chattanooga had a 6+ storm. West Tennessee had blizzard conditions and widespread 12 inch snows. Nashville may have missed out, but I know they got 3 inches in the 1st week of March event.

Not in any way saying this will repeat but weak Nina 1984 saw November start warm, then turn really cold late month. Same thing happened this year. November was -2.6 here in 1984, -3.1 here this year. December 1984 had a few chilly days around the 8th, with some light snow, then it torched and finished +7 for the month. There was a little light snow and chilly temps today and it's supposed to get really reallywarm the next couple of weeks. The CFS is showing what would be below 0 cold for the valley in January. 99.9 percent sure it's a coincidence but patterns repeat even if extremes don't.

It started as micro flakes and after about 10 minutes it went to a full on light snow shower.

Flakes achieved. Welcome winter 2021-22.

The QBO was still falling at the end of November. It's down to -15.92, from -14.52 in October. That should still help us out if it continues downward as winter unfolds.

Looks like some snow showers are knocking on the door. Should be over my area in 10-20 minutes by looking at the radar. Fingers crossed.

GFS and Canadian are back on the possible rain to snow event heading into next weekend. GFS is Plateau and East Tennessee based. Much more widespread across the state on the Canadian. See if the Euro comes back on board too.

All overnight models have an Eastern Valley snow event. The Euro was the biggest of them all and got the mid Valley involved as well.

Potent front on the 00z GFS in about 8 days. 30 degree temp drops and back side snow with cold catching and undercutting the storm.

The Canadian delivers goods and always ends on a cliffhanger for someone.

I watched OSU and Michigan playing in the snow too. Too bad one had to win.

It didn't work out for us last time we had a cold November but it has a very good shot in our region. I looked at all those Novembers a few years ago and came up with a pretty good idea about the relationship. I've since found this map that shows a moderate Correlation between November and winter temps for most of our area. No correlations are 100 percent and they can blow up in our faces from time to time but here are the QBO trends. It was -19 for October, down from -16 in September. It normally falls for about 12-15 months in a row and peaks downward around -26 to -28. Here are the QBO stats in weak Nina years and in years where it was falling through winter, and years where it was below -15 for the winter. We are in A on the bottom chart and hopefully we can remain there with the drop continuing. It should based on past history. October was the 5th month in a row it fell. In 2009-10 it actually blipped up a little from September into October but then it started falling again into winter and we had a nice winter. It was falling in 1993-94 and January 1994 was very cold. It was falling in winter 1995-96 which is an all time great winter here. It was falling in 2014-15 which was a brutal winter in the area too. The 2014-15 winter is the only one where we've timed it right to be falling to below -20 in January and February since 1979 when CPC has records for it. The bottom map is Jan-Feb of 2015. Maybe, if we are lucky, it will do it again this year.

Looking back at Ninas I've not found a pattern to suggest they are front loaded in our region. They cluster about equally with cold/wintry periods from Dec 1st to February 20th over the course of the last 70 years that had a Nina. About 2/3rds of them feature cold and wintry outbreaks and about half of those have long (10 days or longer) severe winter outbreaks. About 1/3rd are wall to wall warm, those tend to be stronger Ninas.