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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    We'll see where it goes. Usually the GFS follows the 0z NAM at 12z the next day.
  2. John1122
    The NAM still cleans things out pretty fast. The RGEM at 18z had lingering snow showers over middle and eastern areas to the end it's run.
  3. John1122
    Ratio'd map is better for some and worse for some. It does have the Hancock/Hawkins snowhole.
  4. John1122
    I'm not sure if this is mix, sleet, zr or just extremely heavy snow in the red.
  5. John1122
    We are about to start the comeback phase before the inside 24 hours collapse round.
  6. John1122
    That shows the same snow hole that has been on multiple model runs, likely terrain induced. Amazing how models can seemingly account for that.
  7. John1122
    Past results don't guarantee anything, but last December's anafrontal event was an overperformer that was handled best by the GFS/Canadian blend just from looking back at the thread. The NE Tennessee snowhole has been showing up on some model runs this time, and looking back, Holston posted the satellite shot from the next morning after last year's event and there was no accumulation in the Hawkins/East Hancock area. Basically where it's been showing up on models. That system had the benefit of happening in the evening and really got going after dark.
  8. John1122
    The NAM got ever so slightly better but still looked pretty bad overall. Front just blows through taking the precip with it. Has the odd three fingers of snow the GEFS was showing several days ago. Still can't for the life of me figure out what would possibly cause that to happen.
  9. John1122
    GEFS, all 20 members show at least 2 inches over some parts of the valley region, a few block busters skew the mean upwards a little and the 6+ area in the Knox/Jefferson/Sevier remained.
  10. John1122
    The NAM was just a blank for everyone that run, but the NAM beyond 48 hours leaves a lot to be desired. The RGEM didn't look too bad, but it's not likely all that reliable beyond 48 either. The RGEM at 84, coming down pretty good still in the Eastern half of the valley, pink/purple level snow showing up imby and over Crossville at this time with flakes flying nearly back to Nashville still, rain in the very NE corner of Johnson County at this hour still accounting for no snow falling there yet.
  11. John1122
    06z was better for some, a little worse for others. Not sure why it keeps showing the blank spot in NE Tennessee.
  12. John1122
    The Euro has the best chance of eventually being right because it's showed just about every solution from heavy snow to nothing over the past 3 days. It does seem to be having issues.
  13. John1122
    I honestly think the Euro will either get better or the GFS worse by 12z tomorrow. I don't think they will remain that far apart in timing as we work inside D4 towards D3.
  14. John1122
    Euro was slightly better vs 12z. It's still on the slow edge of guidance.
  15. John1122
    The fog tonight was incredible as I drove home. I was literally a mile away from where I thought I was at one point this evening. You couldn't see Walmart from 100 yards away. I mean not even any light from it.
  16. John1122
    If we can land the cold, that is great. If not, I don't want mixing issues and warm noses anywhere around.
  17. John1122
    The Canadian has the initial thump then a secondary piece of energy moves from middle Tennessee SE towards the southeast areas of the forum. Snows lightly basically all night into Christmas morning over parts of the area. Has an unfortunate snow hole. North Georgia people would be ecstatic.
  18. John1122
    Normally the UK would be out on pivotal by now but they are having server issues.
  19. John1122
    The Canadian is still slower than the GFS but it has sped up towards the GFS solution. Also much more snow on it vs 12z. So the above comments about it folding towards the GFS were spot on.
  20. John1122
    The Doc has been all in, or kinda in, depending on which run, for a week now. Actually most of it's moves have been towards the GFS when it does move.
  21. John1122
    Around 12:50.
  22. John1122
    GFS ratio'd, still consistent.
  23. John1122
    GFS maintains for another run. Someone is going to fold on way or another. Though the Euro has been flopping from great to meh the past few days.
  24. John1122
    Not sure who to believe, the consistent GFS or the waffling foreign models. One thing is for sure, it's never easy any more.
  25. John1122
    I'd say we are about 12z runs today away from starting a thread for the Christmas event. It's been consistent on modeling for days and the event is getting close to moving onto HI-Res model territory.
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