John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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I just read a story that the PV was going to get very stretched out and send cold into North America through early November. It's been modeled to elongate quite a bit by November 3rd or so from the images in the story. It was from a site that normally deals with European weather patterns.
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The rain here was pretty decent, around .70. This hasn't been like a typical dry spell in fall, because usually those tend to feature a lot of sun and a lot of AN temps. The short periods of rain we've gotten were allowed to soak in because of extended cloudy stretches, and coolish temperatures. I do know I've been luckier with rain than those south of I-40.
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Unfortunately that tends not to happen, at least when November is very warm. It seems like the November pattern often repeats in winter. If I can have anything, I'll take my chances with a cold November and see where it falls. November 2021 was -3.5 here and we had a reasonably memorable winter topped by the March storm. Last year I was near normal for November but areas away from the Northern Plateau were around +3 and things didn't go well. Memorable winters off the top of my head. Nov 1976 was -8 All winters after through 1982. Nov 1984 was -3. 1995 was -4 in November and it led into one of the best modern day winters we've seen in the region. Nov 2013 was -3, 2014 was -6. No weather correlation is ever 100 percent but when you start seeing it get to 60/40 or 65/35 splits, that's significant. There are warm Novembers that had good winters to follow. Though one, November of 1977 was AN because it had a very very warm first six or so days and two very AN days late month. The last three weeks were generally BN except for the one spike. It snowed 6 inches the last week of the month and lows were in the single numbers but it still finished +2 because of how warm it was when it was warm (several +15 or more days). But our standard bearer winters for extreme cold and snow in my life are basically 76-77, 77-78, 78-79, 79-80, 80-81, 81-82, (winters were awesome back then) 84-85, 93-94, 95-96, 13-14, 14-15. 6 of 11 the had BN Novembers (more than-1.5) 3 NN (2 were around -0.4, 1 around +0.5), 2 AN. Good winters that were snowy, but not frigidly cold (no below 0 weather imby), were 09-10, 10-11, 20-21, 21-22. I believe in that group 2 were AN in November, one NN (-0.3) and 1 was BN. Out of those 15 memorable for cold and/or snow, winters 4 had AN Novembers, 7 BN Novembers, 4 NN (with 3 of those 4 on the slightly BN side of normal) Novembers. So technically, 10 of 15 were on the BN side of things. The best warm November analog was Nov 1978, it was +4. December remained mild that winter, Jan went BN and February 1979 was extremely cold and snowy. I may be missing a winter or two that worked well for us as I'm going mostly off memory. Also, this applies to the Northern Plateau/Cumberlands area. But it likely applies to a larger portion of the region as well.
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If the GFS is to be believed the AN temps will be short lived (3-5 days). Then a major cold front will slam through with the coldest air of the season, and a hard freeze the weekend before Halloween. Pretty widespread 20s showing up for most of the forum area in that time frame.
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My lawn hasn't had any stress really this year. We've had several nice showers this afternoon, then sunshine, then back to showers. If this were late November to March it would probably be a snowshower kind of day.
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I sure hope not, or that the Nino/Cold October works out for us.
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Getting showers this afternoon that are moving almost NNE to SSW. Very unusual. Temp is 50.
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Nothing very heavy but we've had a pretty good 45 minute shower here. I was worried that it might not rain at all. Every drop that hits a leaf helps with the coming fire season. After year after year of epic rainfall totals and 3 500 year flooding events, I didn't know if we'd ever be dry for any length of time again.
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I'm not sure on Nino years, but in the grand scheme of things we basically always want a BN November. There's a pretty strong relationship to BN Novembers and major snow/ice events in the winter here. There's also a pretty strong relationship to dud winters after AN Novembers. It's something like around 70 percent in both directions.
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This isn't bad at all to head into winter. Implies PNA ridging and down stream troughing here with an active STJ.
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Looking at the latest ENSO report, I wonder if the Nino has now peaked? Both the subsurface and surface temperatures across nearly the entire basin have declined for 4 straight weeks. From what I can tell, most models have the Nino declining in Nov/Dec/Jan and slowly falling through winter. But all seem to have missed the slight weakening over the last month. 3.4 now looks to hang out in the 1.0 to 1.5 range and a moderate Nino is now favored through winter. The last strong Nino was a good winter for cold and snow and the last weak Nino was a torch. So maybe moderate will work out for us.
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I'm currently at -0.5 for the month to date and the high today was 62 degrees vs a normal of 69, the low this morning was 43 vs a normal of 46 for today. The BN anomalies should deepen as we move further into the month. I do know that November is a key month for my area, as BN November years tend to lead in to far more frequent winter events than AN November years. I very much appreciate your BN Oct/El Nino winter research. I'm going to look and see what winter events happened in the years you've noted. I will say, for my area, I love +PNA/-EPO set ups. The Pacific can really bring the winter extremes here when it cooperates.
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34 this morning with frost. A friend of mine who lives down in a deep bottom was 32 this morning.
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Already down to 45. Not sure why I'm bordered by frost advisories and not under one but I'm going to assume it's going to frost here.
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Those were all over yesterday! There was one at the Campbell County football game and I saw one online at a couple of Knoxville area games. Feeling true fall outside. Sunny blue skies and 55 degrees with a breeze.
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Imby Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb were all BN. Around -3 for Nov, -2.5 Dec/Feb, -6 for January. Big snow event early December of around 6 inches. There was snow on the ground here from Mid-Jan all the way to Feb 1st. Two snow events here during those two weeks. 7 inches that caused a 4 day power outage for me and then another 3 or 4 inch event a few days later. Below 0 temps followed the 7 inch snow. There were a couple more 2-3 inch events in February. March flipped and was +6. The QBO had been positive but falling. It went negative in December and slowly fell through winter. The Nino was a high end moderate. It peaked at +1.3 around November and started falling the rest of winter.
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Still raining hard and thundering here. Looks like the storms are doing better further south than expected too. May even reach 'Nooga.
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One heck of a flooding storm going on right now. Nice to get a big shot of water as leaf season is going. Just to make sure the deep layers of leaves aren't super dry.
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48/72 here today.
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49.6 this morning. Currently 68 degrees. Yesterday as rain showers whipped through, it was actually windy and felt chilly, temperatures fell into the mid 60s as the the rain moved through.
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52 this morning. Currently up to 73. Feels like early October.
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I've got a raft of leaves already down from the huge sycamore by my driveway. The black gum tree alongside it also has several branches that have turned fully red.
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Had a heavy rainer this morning already. Looks like summer is basically over. I'm sure we'll get a few Indian Summer days, but my current 10 day forecast doesn't have a high above 76. The accuweather long lead, which I think is ran off the weekly models, so not terribly accurate, doesn't have a high in the 80s through the rest of the month or all of October. As a matter of fact, it has frost by the first week of October.
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Had a little over an inch of rain this evening during the severe warned storm. Thundered forever before it finally got here.
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I'd like to see it have a warm bias but I think it more has some odd extreme bias. Last winter it was way too cold when the big cold shot happened for Christmas. Seems like it was showing -10 to -20 around the area several days out.
