John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The Euro is a massive ice storm 40 and south/east of 81 in East Tennessee by the look of it. 850s further north that run.
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Not sure if it was sleet or zr, but that Euro AI run gave you probably close to 1.2 inches of non-snow QPF over Chattanooga proper. Northern Hamilton was enough to get about double the snow down vs downtown.
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Yes, unfortunately the warm nose is a demon we often fight against, especially the southern valley. Yes, models account for it, but the warm nose on some models is extreme around 800mb to 850mb. There's no way for rates to cool that much of a warm nose.
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It's going to be a huge ice storm towards the southern border it appears, as 850s approach almost exactly I-40 in Knoxville but stay at 33ish longer near Chattanooga but surface temps stay in the 20s in Chattanooga.
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Actually its going to be pretty similar to 06z it appears.
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Euro AI is going to join the weaker camp most likely.
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With the Euro AI starting the current score card = GFS/AIGFS somewhat suppressed. GEFS middle ground. ICON/Canadian/UKIE amped.
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The UKIE did run on Pivotal but somehow crashed off after I'd seen it already. 12+ over the midstate. The pivotal map may include sleet on the 10:1, not sure.
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Apparently I somehow clicked on 00z and thought it was 12z.
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The AIGFS has about 50 percent more QPF than the GFS imby. .51 on the GFS, .90 on the AI.
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update to the update. I did see the 12z UKIE but it crashed off Pivitol and has restarted. update, mistakenly looked at the 0z. The UKIE is an amped up QPF giant that has a too big warm nose up the Apps. It's know for thermal issues. Still snows well over a foot in places, especially middle Tennessee.
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GFS OP vs GEFS. The GEFS is similar to yesterday and has been consistent. The GFS Op was dry (relatively) like this at 12z yesterday, 18z too I think.
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30s/10s for the week after Jan 1996. Even colder after the Feb 2nd 1996 massive winter storm that this one reminds me of. After the blizzard it was very cold for March, but only for a day after it departed. By 3/16 it was back in the upper 40s.
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The wild sleet totals Carver's referenced. Talk about a block of ice.
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GEFS once again in major disagreement with its OP. When it did this yesterday, the OP then corrected (probably over corrected) back towards the OP. Through 120 the GEFS has around double the QPF across our area vs the GFS OP.
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That was a potent arctic front, we had cold air in place ahead of it, which caused freezing rain, the front raced through the precip shield there was a burst of heavy snow, but areas along 40 stayed zr longer. There was about an inch or so of frozen qpf total. It was faster than this system overall.
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13z NBM ice. Bad across the Southern Valley but not world ending. I assume there's also sleet accumulations in there somewhere.
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Do you mean Jan of 1994?
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13z NBM after the 12z suite was ingested I assume.
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That GFS run would break snowfall records in every southern state except Tennessee.
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Crazy sleet totals on the Canadian that run. I would love to see the sleet accumulation maps over the region.
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The Canadian has slightly better thermals but still major ice issues along and south of 40.
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Of course it's also having issues being released. But literally just day after day of snow across Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina.
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Please let the GFS be its normal garbage self here. I can't take watching the deep south get 2 feet while we get 6-8 inches.
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It's going to end up decent for most, but nothing in the ball pack of what the potential is for this event.
