John1122

The QBO should be at a large - number heading into Dec-February. It's rare to see it below -20 in the winter months just due to timing. We are living almost in a golden era that it's happened three times since 2015. Each was a pretty cold winter for a good portion of the forum area, or at least had a very cold section of winter. The only other times it was at -20 in January was 1959 and 1966. That said, how negative it is doesn't matter as much as it's direction. As long as it's dropping, we're good, if it's negative but rising, it's less good. We are in month 6 of it being negative. As a rule, it drops for 9-12 months in a row once it turns negative. So it should start rising between March and Juneish, meaning we should be good for winter. A lot of our notable/legendary winters were with it falling.

The Euro is also really cold. My afternoon temp is 30 on Monday. Lows in the lower 20s.

The Euro came a bit south as well. It hammers Northern Kentucky now and spreads snow well into Tennessee.

Basically all the 0z models are getting closer to the Euro depiction regarding the trough kicking of snow showers across parts of the forum area. The GFS is still showing the least. The ICON took a pretty big step towards the Euro. Now we wait for the Euro itself. Sometimes the other models climb on board and then it loses things.

The UKIE is closer to the Euro than it is to the GFS camp. The model wars have started early, it seems.

The internet archive archives this site. So it's saved there if nothing else.

18z is when the model was ran. This time of year, 0z is the 7pm, 06z is 1am, 12z is 7am, and 18z is 1pm, all those are EST, subtract an hour for CST. Usually around 4 hours after that initialization time, the results show up on websites. The Euro is more like 5 hours later. Carvers' map up there is the output for 21z next Monday. 4pm/3pm November 10th.

Clown map season is beginning. Hopefully all our winter regulars are able to come out again this year. @Holston_River_Rambler @PowellVolz @Stovepipe @Reb @TellicoWx @Silas Lang @tnweathernut @bearman @bearman @BlunderStorm @AMZ8990 @BNAwx @Coach B @fountainguy97 @Greyhound @kvskelton @Knoxtron @Kentucky @Uncle Nasty @Vol Man @Wurbus @Wintersnow888 @8283 El Nino Baby @BuCoVaWx @Chattownsnow @Scottie16 @Shocker0 @McMinnWx @WinterWonderland @Kasper I'm sure I missed some of you, and some not mentioned are around already.

Oh Canada!

It pretty much rained all day and became moderate in the afternoon.

Sitting at .73 inches of rain today, really didn't expect much at all.

It was supposed to clear off this afternoon and warm into the upper 50s. It's raining harder than ever and we only warmed to 45 today.

Upper 20s here as well, forecast low was 36 from MRX.

Been reading a lot from Eric Webb, who has found that high solar/-QBO/Nina winters stack up as front loaded with December and January being generally wintery, with a weak PV, and a lean towards +PNA/-NAO/+AO, and that they generally flip to the opposite in February.

The 06z GFS threw out another clown map for some of us in the extended. Rain changing to snow. 2-3 inches over my county, more over the mountains. Major doubts that happens, but we may see our first flakes in November.

.30 rain today, misty and foggy this afternoon. High was at midnight, the temp has been steady around 45 this afternoon.

The 18z GFS around D11 had a 1-3 inch snow for the Plateau/SWVa with more along the mountains. Around .5 to 1 inch for most of the mid-state. One of the first shots fired for accumulating snow across the lower elevations. The 12z had it but over a smaller area. Basically less than a half inch over Campbell/Scott/SE Ky/SWVa and heavier snow in the higher eastern mountains. I doubt it will still be there on the 0z.

1.1 inches of rain today, 3.6 inches this week so far.

I don't expect to see anything. My low is supposed to be 45 and thats basically the high tomorrow as well. Looks like snow will be 4500+ feet.

Another chilly day with drenching rain.

Picked up another 1.3 inches of rain since that last post. It was drizzle and light rain most of today.

There tends to be a little more variable outcomes with warmer Novembers than colder ones. Most warmer Novs that had cold/snowy winters to follow tended to be in the +1 to +1.5 range. Last year was a rare exception of Nov being +5 and we had a very cold January. Winter's truly greatest hits here though, were BN Novembers as a rule.

It's not going to happen every time but looking back from the 1930s-2021ish it was about 60-65 percent of the time. Warm Novembers, more often than not, led to unremarkable winters, but not always. Cold Novembers went on to feature major outbreaks of winter weather at a higher than usual rate, but not always. 2013-14, and 2014-15 were both BN Novembers and both great winters (if you like snow/cold outbreaks). Nov 2015, 2016 were well AN and the winter of 16 was good but 17 was blah. Nov 2021 was well BN. 2022 was very cold/snowy, especially from my area and west across our forum region. I was -4 for Jan 2022 with 15+ inches of snow for the month. Going back, Nov 1995 was -4 here, Jan/Feb 96 were epic. Nov 1993 was -1.5, Jan featured heavy snow, ice, and -15 type temps, Nov 1984 was -3, Jan 85 was legendary, and Feb was great too, Nov 1976 was -9, Jan/Feb '77 were non-stop winter here, Nov 1967 was -3, Jan and Feb were both well BN, Feb -11. Nov 1959 was -2, snowiest winter in Tn history Jan-March '60. Almost every epic winter we've had in the last 70 years had a cold Nov, except three. Nov 2019 was cold, and winter 2019-20 was a dud, so a cold November isn't a lock, it's a noticeable lean though. There are generally more cases of a good winter following a warmer Nov than a dud following a cold November, at least imby.

1.25 inches of rain since yesterday at 7pm. Still coming down. 49 degrees.

29.7 this morning. Oneida was 29 as well. Tazewell in Claiborne County was 30 and Tri-Cities was 31 and so was Maynardville, Norris was 32. I assume that MRX just decided not to do the frost/freeze protocol this year. JKL and Greenville had appropriate freeze/frost warnings out overnight.