John1122

The internet archive archives this site. So it's saved there if nothing else.

18z is when the model was ran. This time of year, 0z is the 7pm, 06z is 1am, 12z is 7am, and 18z is 1pm, all those are EST, subtract an hour for CST. Usually around 4 hours after that initialization time, the results show up on websites. The Euro is more like 5 hours later. Carvers' map up there is the output for 21z next Monday. 4pm/3pm November 10th.

Clown map season is beginning. Hopefully all our winter regulars are able to come out again this year. @Holston_River_Rambler @PowellVolz @Stovepipe @Reb @TellicoWx @Silas Lang @tnweathernut @bearman @bearman @BlunderStorm @AMZ8990 @BNAwx @Coach B @fountainguy97 @Greyhound @kvskelton @Knoxtron @Kentucky @Uncle Nasty @Vol Man @Wurbus @Wintersnow888 @8283 El Nino Baby @BuCoVaWx @Chattownsnow @Scottie16 @Shocker0 @McMinnWx @WinterWonderland @Kasper I'm sure I missed some of you, and some not mentioned are around already.

Oh Canada!

It pretty much rained all day and became moderate in the afternoon.

Sitting at .73 inches of rain today, really didn't expect much at all.

It was supposed to clear off this afternoon and warm into the upper 50s. It's raining harder than ever and we only warmed to 45 today.

Upper 20s here as well, forecast low was 36 from MRX.

Been reading a lot from Eric Webb, who has found that high solar/-QBO/Nina winters stack up as front loaded with December and January being generally wintery, with a weak PV, and a lean towards +PNA/-NAO/+AO, and that they generally flip to the opposite in February.

The 06z GFS threw out another clown map for some of us in the extended. Rain changing to snow. 2-3 inches over my county, more over the mountains. Major doubts that happens, but we may see our first flakes in November.

.30 rain today, misty and foggy this afternoon. High was at midnight, the temp has been steady around 45 this afternoon.

The 18z GFS around D11 had a 1-3 inch snow for the Plateau/SWVa with more along the mountains. Around .5 to 1 inch for most of the mid-state. One of the first shots fired for accumulating snow across the lower elevations. The 12z had it but over a smaller area. Basically less than a half inch over Campbell/Scott/SE Ky/SWVa and heavier snow in the higher eastern mountains. I doubt it will still be there on the 0z.

1.1 inches of rain today, 3.6 inches this week so far.

I don't expect to see anything. My low is supposed to be 45 and thats basically the high tomorrow as well. Looks like snow will be 4500+ feet.

Another chilly day with drenching rain.

Picked up another 1.3 inches of rain since that last post. It was drizzle and light rain most of today.

There tends to be a little more variable outcomes with warmer Novembers than colder ones. Most warmer Novs that had cold/snowy winters to follow tended to be in the +1 to +1.5 range. Last year was a rare exception of Nov being +5 and we had a very cold January. Winter's truly greatest hits here though, were BN Novembers as a rule.

It's not going to happen every time but looking back from the 1930s-2021ish it was about 60-65 percent of the time. Warm Novembers, more often than not, led to unremarkable winters, but not always. Cold Novembers went on to feature major outbreaks of winter weather at a higher than usual rate, but not always. 2013-14, and 2014-15 were both BN Novembers and both great winters (if you like snow/cold outbreaks). Nov 2015, 2016 were well AN and the winter of 16 was good but 17 was blah. Nov 2021 was well BN. 2022 was very cold/snowy, especially from my area and west across our forum region. I was -4 for Jan 2022 with 15+ inches of snow for the month. Going back, Nov 1995 was -4 here, Jan/Feb 96 were epic. Nov 1993 was -1.5, Jan featured heavy snow, ice, and -15 type temps, Nov 1984 was -3, Jan 85 was legendary, and Feb was great too, Nov 1976 was -9, Jan/Feb '77 were non-stop winter here, Nov 1967 was -3, Jan and Feb were both well BN, Feb -11. Nov 1959 was -2, snowiest winter in Tn history Jan-March '60. Almost every epic winter we've had in the last 70 years had a cold Nov, except three. Nov 2019 was cold, and winter 2019-20 was a dud, so a cold November isn't a lock, it's a noticeable lean though. There are generally more cases of a good winter following a warmer Nov than a dud following a cold November, at least imby.

1.25 inches of rain since yesterday at 7pm. Still coming down. 49 degrees.

29.7 this morning. Oneida was 29 as well. Tazewell in Claiborne County was 30 and Tri-Cities was 31 and so was Maynardville, Norris was 32. I assume that MRX just decided not to do the frost/freeze protocol this year. JKL and Greenville had appropriate freeze/frost warnings out overnight.

32 this morning after a forecast low of 38.

Verified much cooler than model guidance again this morning. MRX low forecast was 40, it was 35 and frosty.

Outside the mountains snow showers showing up in fantasy land on the GFS. Obviously likely to be gone next run, but definitely a sign several runs in a row of very cold air for the time of year, entering the East for November. Never a sure thing, but as I've found and said before, cold Novembers often lead to memorable winter weather events in the following winter. It's a better than 60 percent of the time that it happens, so a decent statistical increase.

Climo wins again. Models were suggesting no frost here until November but we'd never made it past October 20th in the last 60 years. Sure enough, 34 and a heavy frost this morning.

Extreme winds today, my power went at 2:30 and just came back on a few minutes ago. .85 rain, and the temp is down to 45 already.