John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The GFS isn't just often wrong these days, whatever has happened to it, it doesn't even correct until the event is actually happening.
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The ICON may be trying with the vort. It looks slightly better than 12z through 84.
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18z NAM looks kinda blah at the end. Flat with the vort at 84 vs it wrapping up on the 12z gfs at 90. Probably wasn't going to get much done here.
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If I can get 2 inches from this, I'll be happy at this point. The Euro being a complete whiffer is a sadly decent chance to happen too.
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From that Weather Next run, ratio'd since temps are in the single digits and low teens and the entire column looks like a North Dakota snow sounding, I'd say 1 to 1.5 inches around Cookeville, 1.5-3 inches along the Plateau west to East, 1.5-4 along the central valley of East Tn, 3-6 for NE Tennessee/mountains.
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It's crazy to see snow dumping over the gulf stream off the South Carolina coast. But here we are where it snows heavily over warm ocean areas but avoids it at all costs for East Tennessee.
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It was ever so slight, but the Weather Next moved the precip slightly west and slightly more for most of East Tn vs 06z. So a small step in the right direction.
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Weather Next is delayed for some reason.
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The 12z Weather Next should be out in a few minutes.
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At the end of its run, the RGEM looked like it was going to wind up similar to the GFS/Canadian.
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We just need the vort to wrap over West Tennessee vs East Tennessee. The Canadian and GFS do it there, the Euro isn't as wound up and brings it further East. The Euro Ai is closer to the Canadian/GFS than the OP Euro.
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The lee side low has popped up a few times.
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The Euro remains Dr. No. It only tends to badly miss when it shows snow. When it doesn't, lock it in usually.
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Bottomed out at -3 this morning.
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Euro Ai is blah.
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UKIE was a major westward shift too. Only helps the far east but it was about like the GFS.
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The Canadian wound the energy up over west Tennessee instead of East/Middle Tennessee and that was the response.
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The Canadian is single digits to low 10s while snowing.
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Canadian is a big run from Cookeville and points east it looks like. It was really good with this last storm and the first turd in the punch bowl showing massive warm noses. Hopefully it's right here.
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GFS took a big step west. Those in the far eastern areas would cash in with that run.
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Man, that's an unfortunate eastward shift from weather next.
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Euro AI was pretty steady and right about the same as 12z. Euro OP was worse for anywhere in Tennessee than 12z.
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The Weather Next precip shield has expanded west 3 runs in a row.
