EasternLI

No pain, no gain with the vortex passing Alaska. It needs to get into the sea of Okhotsk for my purposes, and it's on its way. It will not stay parked on Alaska for a month.

I felt like digging into the cutter situation and how the situation changed so drastically in short order a bit more. So looking at it from a bigger picture perspective. I can offer an alternative cause. A very ill timed cyclonic wave break, for our interests, is identified. With the lobe originally forecast to set up at 50/50 on guidance now going to break instead of doing that. I know some are, but many may not be aware. When rossby waves break, they immediately are then replaced with a wave of the opposite sign. So that means a trough would be replaced with a ridge and vice versa. You can see the lobe break, and immediately be replaced by the ridge in the following loop. Therefore, cutter. As a side note, there will be a ridge in the east after the cutter cyclonicly breaks. It's one main reason why things often flip right after monumental events. More breaks to come according to ensembles. I think quite a different picture is very capable of emerging on ensembles as we head through this week actually.

I'm far from sold on an extended warmup.

Nah, everyone shut the blinds already

Really difficult to get a read on the extended right now IMO. When you have a mean that looks like this. However within that mean, the #1 cluster from the cluster analysis is a different idea than the mean would lead you to believe. It's really going to depend upon how upcoming wave breaks play out. Tricky timeframe.

Right. And these wave breaks help reinforce it. So I think it matters what happens with this week as well.

If you loop the ensembles, you can see a CWB cyclonic wave break near Alaska. And the trough retrograding back towards the sea of Okhotsk. But need to see how this week plays out first I think.

There very well could be a feedback process from that. It's possible.

Really hard to say. The models have been trying to figure out what to do with complicated features. In the 2 areas that are most difficult for them. North Pacific and arctic. It's like an honors exam for guidance.

Gefs being stubborn with a cluster of offshore lows. IDK what happens with this thing. Not crazy about the orientation of this block now. It's changed quite a bit in a couple days. Who knows.

It's got a shot. That's why I cut the punter from my team this year in November lol. We'll see how it goes. No issues for me just yet. Looking good.

Oh man, this is really nice!

Big time Aleutian low paired with big time Scandinavian ridge is looking very stout indeed. The strat vortex is going to be facing big big trouble...

More chances to come too. This is the first real chance lol. Right on time too, if you ask me. With winter just beginning on the 21st. Met winter is just for bookkeeping IMO. This is playing out nicely. We may need to make some stops for pickups.

It's going to get very interesting in the strat with the re-energized tropical signal going into the Pacific IMO. In addition to that, WQBO acts as an amplifier to the phase 7 forcing on the vortex as well. As per the research. Really curious to see what happens here. And again, when Ed is talking like this. It's a very good idea to sit up straight and pay attention. As he normally points out flaws with how things could happen. He's not doing that this year. The quest for a -AO winter, as a whole, continues with high interest.

There's even another shortwave after that lol. Weenie 18z gefs run.

Sure was. Worth watching for sure. Especially after seeing that eps today.

Waaay out there, but hints of the anomalous ridge retrograding to Scandinavia/Urals. With an anomalous Aleutian low? That would be terrible news for the vortex. Looking forward to it.

There's never anything perfect. It's more about getting a favorable collection of variables. La nina and el nino are fine, for the area. As long as it's not one of the super variety. Neutral can be problematic. But it's that, plus everything else going on in the envelope of that, as well. This year? We have an extremely interesting set of variables.... The formation question, is complicated. There are a lot of factors that go into that. That's something that's constantly under further research, at least as far as I've seen.

I think it was on December 1st

Eps and gefs are now both pushing the tropical signal into the Pacific harder. Re-energized. I hope you all get winter coats for Christmas. Say goodbye to the SPV too, if that goes off as strong as it's looking. We'll revisit next month.