EasternLI

18z gefs is taking this new mjo wave from phase 6 and really amplifying it now in phase 7. Don't know if that happens but that's the first run (gefs or eps) I've seen doing that.

Agree with that, emphatically. This is a powerful force this year. 200mb streamfunction reveals a commanding presence. Also, no surprise, right where it needs to be for a -PNA.

Won't happen. We'll find a fluke event in March or something. Would be unprecedented though.

Big picture. The strat is up to bat next IMO. Probably hear some talk about it over the next 2 weeks. This current - NAO isn't going to last forever. We'll need a strat assist to keep the arctic favorable down the line. There's real potential there though, but mother nature is going to do whatever she wants. So we observe. Maybe we spin the ssw roulette wheel.

Thanks for the kind words. I'm on the search for a good pattern. However, I'm not going to let that cloud my judgment. That's pointless to me. All of your reasoning has merit. You bring up good points often. The only issue is the abrasive delivery at times. But it's all good. You're right, we don't really want to see that. That would end up +AO and with that Pacific that would be that.

Yup. This stuff is challenging for all models. So constant monitoring is helpful to "look under the hood" so to speak. There's some hints I'm seeing that a new wave takes over in phase 6 and propagates right into to phase 7. But as the old one is dissipating. So it's a stalled out in Phase 7 look on the ensembles. Griteater has a nice thread on Twitter about other years that did something similar. The hope is that this phase 7 will do significant damage to the PV. It's pretty much wait and see what happens at this point.

In fact, there's some of that happening right now. It's just not doing enough to alleviate the deep -PNA as it stands currently.

IMO, it's this area of persistent convection north of Australia causing this persistent -PNA. So you would want some subsidence to push east from the Indian Ocean to tamp that down somewhat as the mjo moves east. That's what was happening on some of the better ensemble (eps & gefs) runs last week. Not so much currently. This is also a piece of the la Niña base state. So it's definitely a challenging proposition, especially with very warm water in this area. Just wanted to point that out for those wondering why that -PNA is there in the first place.

Actually, after looking a little closer at the MJO. It's more like this current wave is dissipating on the doorstep of phase 8. With a new one emerging in phase 6 moving back into phase 7. Eps and gefs both have that look. Almost like a new pulse of energy? Interesting stuff.

Another QBO link

High AAM and phase 7. What happens to the strat in the period ahead? I think that's the answer for what the 2nd half of winter does. If nothing happens, it's probably spring starting in February this year.

Stuck in phase 7 on the eps and gefs today. So it’s just a very similar pattern continuing on those right now. The flip side though, being stuck in phase 7 has legit potential to deal hits to the PV. How much so? Seems like it could be significant if we actually were to get stuck in a pattern capable of doing that. Repeatedly.

Eh, eps has been struggling too. I don't see this as an exclusively gefs thing. Otherwise, agree.

I don't even look at those. However, that one seems like a good approximation for today. I'm using VP 200 supplemented with 850 zonal wind for the most part. Those charts get wacky sometimes.

Strange mjo modeling this morning. It's almost like this wave tries to get into phase 8. Dies out and a new one gets going in phase 7. Weird.

Maybe. There's a couple forks in the road ahead. We just need to see which way the driver takes us. Hopefully you paid him and not snowman lol

Here's an example. This is only an example. The 18z gfs progressed through that same pattern. Then, look what happens upstairs.

That's kind of the way I'm leaning right now. But phase 7 is interesting anyway, that pattern can have ramifications up north. This is all way better than being stuck in the IO or Maritime Continent either way. I'd just pack it in if that was what we were facing.

The question is, does it progress after a stall? Or what happens? I still see pretty strong subsidence in the Indian ocean edging into the Maritime Continent on the end of both ensembles. So I don't think we revert to that area. At least not initially because of that.

Well, you can get variations depending on other factors too. I feel like ensembles are showing a version of this bumped west a tad. Not a perfect match by any means but some similarities, moreso on the GEFS run.

EPS with a nod now to the GEFS at 12z with the mjo IMO. That's a new development today. Stall in phase 7 is a real possibility. So you can see, the nice pattern previously displayed, now delayed as a result. The trough was further east by this time on the 00z run. That's why it's important to keep an eye on this stuff.

Oh, I'm not saying that. I'm looking at the bigger picture. Which is muddy right now at best

A very large part...

Sure looks like the MJO is stuck in phase 7 on the GEFS. That's what I was seeing earlier too. Eps hasn't done that quite yet regardless of what the RMM plots are showing. So the GEFS has that pattern lingering. But again, if that happens, what is it going to do to the PV?