Tyler Penland

Coming down good on the Parkway above Linville. Visibility down to 3-400 yards if that.

Temp 28 up here.


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Got a few rogue flakes breaking through here south of Boone.

Temp is warmer than I expected at this point though currently 37.0/24.0



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We ready for whatever gents?

Looks like a temporary break from the cold for a few days. But after that cutter it gets cold again.

Yep. All you gotta do is loop the H5 maps and see how this is trending. Also, the surface is under done even on that NAM run. 

Trend has been generally sharper/digging trough on the American models last couple days.

Would like to see the euro join in.

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GFS with a solid border county hit. Nearly a foot at elevation this run.

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WPC updated 5 day graphic has introduced a snow chance for the Mountains. 

Looks like the weekend storm is coming back to us a bit.

Also Robert thinks we could see some elevation dependent snow tomorrow under the jet streak.

Looks like a round of NWFS for the border counties overnight.

Won't amount to much but maybe another T-1" on top of the 6" of ice still in everybody's yard. 

A track right over eastern NC would favor us big time. I was honestly shocked the run only dropped 7-10 inches here. A 970 low west of the OBX would be a mixed bag all the way to Burlington.

Ran into some flurries in Boone on the way home. Nothing of note though.

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GFS is storm after storm. Looks better for next Tuesday as well.

I'm very interested in next weekend, could be the next big one.

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Roads are covered with a light dusting of snow here In Leicester. Looks like a dangerous commute around Asheville this morning.

RGEM looks nice. It has wavered a bit but been generally dead set on us getting a couple or 3 inches.

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Nice dusting on the ground here now.

0z HRRR with a big shift west with the precip shield. Develops an area of snow tomorrow afternoon that pushes east quickly.

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1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

It's never good when you click on the site and it's so quiet.  I thought we might start seeing a little NW trend by now,  

Meh let the eastern folks have their storm. We'll get ours. I'm still not convinced there's not a surprise tomorrow night/Friday. 

 Looks like a couple shots next week with plenty of waves coming down the line. We're running out of time a bit with the AO/NAO likely to really start hurting us soon but it's just January. Still got all of Feb/Mar and into April to go.

The devil is in the details with this one.  Pull up a sounding, any sounding around WNC over the next 3 days and tell me that's not borderline snow.  Skew-T says freezing drizzle best guess estimated precipitation with a column of air completely below freezing?  Does the model not think the precipitation will push up into the dendritic growth area?  Those 6000' peaks to Asheville's SW certain could help...  Just because the precip maps and accumulation maps aren't showing the colors, doesn't mean that the atmosphere isn't ripe.  Hell the 6z GFS has a snow sounding for tomorrow morning for most of you.  The main takeaway is that the models are really struggling.  They struggled like this in Dec 2017.  That northern periphery of moisture was never really correctly modeled and finally it was assumed to be a nowcast event.  I remember the GFS and Euro showing small stripes of snow over WNC and E TN a couple days out from the event and thinking they were warning shot.  I think we are seeing something similar here, maybe on a less intense scale but today should be the day we see some type of movement in the models.  I feel like we sit in a pretty good position.

19 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

How’s Foscoe? 
It’s still coming down here atm.  

Tapered off to flurries around 4 or so and they're still flittering around. We don't usually do much with NWF. Just crazy windy still, even in our little wind hole here beneath Seven Devils. 
Not sure exactly how much we wound up with because the wind blew it around but I measured between 9-11" in the yard with 15+" drifts. 

I've lived in Cashiers and Glenville for the last 35 years and I can't remember a single time there were back-to-back weekends with big dog snowstorms. Has my memory just completely failed or is this truly anomalous?

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Don't look now, but the 18z GFS says we do this all over again next Sat/Sun. Nearly identical timing.

Up to 8" and still steady snow. Keeps building in to my SW.

Took a walk down to 105 and I've seen it worse but wouldn't wanna try to climb the hill into Boone.

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Finally back to all snow and temps crashing. Ready for that banding to get here.

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Anyone ready to do this again next week? GFS did sniff today's out first... 

 

Temp just hit 32. Didn't expect this at all.

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