Tyler Penland

These sw winds are absolutely ripping 

Temp falling pretty quick down to 34.5 no precip yet.
Won't be wasting much on liquid it doesn't appear.

This assumes the upper temps catch up. Mesoanalysis has 850s back west of Morristown still.

Worth noting looking back towards Paris, TN the HRRR has been nearly spot on with the temperature drop.
NAM is running a little warm and the GFS and Euro even more so.

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Also don't know if this got mentioned but Beech is closed the next 2 days.
Last year it was too warm for Christmas, this year the opposite.

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I'm fascinated that there isn't even a WWA up here. Widespread black ice at the very least seems pretty likely if not guaranteed. That plus several inches of snow along the border you'd think would prompt one.

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Can't recall an afternoon temp below 10. Early 2000s remember it only got to 12 with a few inches snow on the ground. 

37.8 and creeping downward here south of Boone. Weirdly calm out there.

They hadn't touched the roads when I came home about 730. I think some secondaries had been done but none of the main roads yet.

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I had a visitor this afternoon while finishing up some preparations. 

HRRR is almost definitely overdone but -20 to -30 wind chills are possible in Boone. Above 5K there could be -50 or worse. It will be interesting to see how low it goes compared to the guidance. 

18z HRRR has a minimum of - 14 in Boone.
-19 on Beech.

Max wind gust of 71MPH in Boone.

They've actually shut Beech down for the next 2 days due to the conditions.

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The HRRR was too warm for Amarillo. HRRR suggested 7F and the actual temperature was -2F.

Yes I've seen were the models have been severely behind on modeling the arctic front.

Anybody with a glaze? My DP rose quickly last night and stalled temps at 35. 

She's a comin

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Currently sitting at 32.9/21.3

Interesting night ahead with the ZR. Hopefully the roads are cleared up by the time folks get up.

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 The 18Z GFS has nothing wintry over the SE from either post frontal H5 disturbance. However, similar to the 12Z Euro, it does have from the 2nd disturbance a surface low that forms well offshore the SE coast. If there were to actually be a low that tracked, say, 200 miles west of that track, with about the same amount of cold air, there'd probably be a significant winter event 12/26-27 deep into the SE.
 Keep in mind that this as well as the Euro low were generated by a disturbance currently 7,000 miles away from us and 4,000 miles off the Pacific NW coast where data is relatively limited and that isn't going to cross the Pacific coast for another 3 days. The pattern is quite complex with the huge Arctic high and another H5 disturbance ahead of this one by just one day. When considering all of this, a 200 mile west shift for something 5 days out isn't hard to fathom. So, though the odds favor no big deal 12/26-7 over the bulk of the SE from either disturbance based on model consensus continuing to keep it mainly quiet, a change to a big deal would not be the least bit shocking.

Worth noting for the northern mountains at least the 3km NAM was a good improvement on snow. Basically no rain along the front just a snow squall.

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The HRRR is on drugs. Has Boone to -12 at the end of its run with a -39 wind chill.

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NAM looks just like the euro in my opinion.  

I thought the 18z looked good for snow in the mountains.  Asheville is up to 2 inches on the model run. The temp drop is just going to be insane especially with the wind. That gfs run has Asheville at a min of 1 and has me at negative 5.... Yall seen today after tomorrow.... Yeah something like that lol.

New minimum for Boone on the 12z GFS is -7.

I'm curious to see if this verifies or not.

The Euro is about 10 degrees warmer.

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Further to the above, the 12Z EPS shows a rather strong signal (much stronger than earlier runs) for a surface low offshore the SE at 162 (1 AM 12/27). Keep in mind that this is about a week out, which is still plenty of time for significant changes on the models:
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With wind chills -20 to -30. Geez. Definitely time to put the flip flops away now.

Also, check out the 0z cmc for the 27th-28th. That time frame is looking more and more interesting. The gfs looked like it wanted to pop a low on the coast but never did. [

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Coldest run of the GFS for Boone yet. From 33 to 1 from 6-12z Friday and down to -1 by afternoon. Bottoms out at -3.

Ive actually never seen below zero temps so that would be a first for me.


Brrrrrrrrrr


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[mention=3757]Tyler[/mention] Penland (and anyone else under those returns) are you seeing anything reaching the ground?

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