Tyler Penland

6 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Extreme record breaking El Nino. Everything is on the table. There just may be too much hot air from the ocean that floods the continent except for the northern part of the country.

I'd say hot (mild) and wet. 

Boone is 50/50 on good snow or terrible snow in Super Ninos. 82/83 and 15/16 were both solid, but 97/98 and 23/24 both saw 2.5 and 2.7" season total respectively. I'll be surprised if we see any consistent cool weather until late December or January, at any rate. 3 of the 4 Super Ninos have been above average December including the record setting 2015.

At the end of the day, though, 4 winters isn't a very big sample size and with this Nino being so ridiculously strong you can pretty much toss all the analogs anyways. I'm putting my money on Pacific air flooding the southern half of the country but that's just me. Better chance for widespread severe outbreaks than widespread snow.

Very windy here in Blowing Rock. If it weren't 60 degrees you'd think it was fall.

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One of the more fascinating things around here after a big rain event is how loud Grandfather gets. The mountain literally roars. Kinda cool, and a bit eerie.


Aaaand it's raining again with nothing on radar. Might get my last 5/100ths today anyways.



 

9. 95", looks like there was a little zone from Linville up this way that got the highest totals. Widespread 7-8 though, at least on the south/east side.

Couple of my employees are stuck with small land/mudslides and flooded roads. Overall main roads in the county are fine. The low water levels prior definitely saved some big problems.

 

Another 3" since midnight puts me at 9.03". Still absolutely dumping under this band. Incredible. Lightning now too.

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Still tacking on warnings/advisories. Fire department reporting water over the road in Chimney Rock per Radarscope.

Linville River up to 4.46ft in Nebo. Watauga only currently at 4.01 in Sugar Grove- antecedent conditions helping a ton.

Roadway flooding on 64 in Chimney Rock near Dogwood RV park per the fire department. Arguably this is the first real test of what drainage looks like now since Helene. All those landslides no longer take in water- especially in the fall when all the smaller plants are done for the year. 

Just hit 6" here. Last batch jumped to 2"/hr for a minute there. 

My temperature gauge must've gotten water in it, it has stopped reporting. Had to kick a spider out of it the other day when I was cleaning- hopefully it didn't mess something up in there.

5.5". Rates between 1/2-1" an hour consistently since I got home at 7:30. Fortunately no wind at all here.

Just crossed over the 5" mark up here on the mountain near Seven Devils. Been absolutely pouring for the last few hours now. Hope all you folks in the foothills are staying safe. 

Flood Advisory now. Absolutely dumping closing in on 5" at 4.78" currently. Flood Advisories run the entire escarpment with this firehose set-up. 0z HRRR has another 3-4" with heavy rain on and off all night, outside chance of hitting that 10" it was spitting out yesterday. Wild dude.

My friend over near the TN line only had an inch in about an hour ago. The crazy swings across the county will never not fascinate me.

Just got home from work and 3.53" in the gauge and coming down at a good clip.

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Looking at radar looks like we'll be in these tropical downpours for a while. Up to a little over an inch here in Blowing Rock and still gusty.  Moisture fetch stretches all the way down into Georgia-currently very little east motion on it.

Downpours and gusts have arrived. 0.6" so far, absolutely dumping out there now though.

Been pretty calm here in Blowing Rock so far. Only about 1/3" and winds not more than 15-20 m.p.h. 

Side note but I was up at Grayson Highlands yesterday for the leaves and hoping for a sunset (too cloudy) but we did see some crazy solar optics all day long. First time for me ever seeing a couple of these.

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6z came back down to Earth and I think these totals are much more believable. Given the setup it's definitely an escarpment problem, gonna be big swings in totals across fairly small areas I bet.

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0z is again significant with widespread 4-8+" along the escarpment. Perfect firehose set-up.  HRRR continues to have very gusty winds into Sunday evening with the remnant center running right through Tennessee. Max gusts come mid-afternoon Saturday with 40-50 m.p.h. at elevation. 

And I will add: just because it isn't Helene, an extreme case, doesn't mean it can't cause significant issues. 

18z HRRR is concerning.

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22 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

High Wind Warning hoisted for the WNC Mountains above 3500 ft from midnight tonight until Sunday morning. Wind Advisory hoisted for the Mountains below 3500 ft for the same timeframe.

Based on their graphics out right now I don't foresee them issuing a Flood Watch. Hope that doesn't come back to bite them. 
 

Looking more likely that Isaias won't have time to weaken significantly before landfall and the continued east-of-track motion is aligning it more with the shear vs running into it. When the mid-level winds run into the mountains its going to be a fun time.

BTW, has anybody checked on GSP? They have yet to issue a single watch or advisory for this. Getting on my nerves having counties in my area of Georgia under a Flood/High Wind Watch right next door under FFC but nothing at all from GSP.

Also seeing it run east of the forecast track a bit. Destin landfall seems likely at this point. HRRR drops the hammer with rain on the escarpment tomorrow night. 

54 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Not seeing a whole lot of chatter online regarding the inland wind threat. A broadening cyclone, fast motion and a tight gradient with the HP to the NE screams widespread 50-70 mph gusts that go on a lot longer than your typical system. Hope folks are prepared. 

Tornado threat for AL/GA will be significant as well. Atlanta will be under the gun from both strong easterly winds and the tornado threat on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk on Saturday for the area currently under a slight from the SPC if things hold serve.

7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I hope so. You'd think it would push it more eastward. 

I mean you can see the trough shearing it off on the left side this morning. It's not just going to bulldoze into that, and even if the "center" does technically move I don't think it will matter much after landfall- going to be a rapidly expanding moisture envelope. My biggest concern about rain is coastal convection cutting us off. I've noticed a weak low type thing on the hurricane models and now the globals a little bit trying to pop off the SC/GA coast. Could cut moisture flow off some.

20 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Well this thing has trended west so we may not get much rain at all around here 

I've been looking for a late season analog that jumped NNW/NW after landfall and I haven't been able to find one. I think we see a slight eastward adjustment today to account for the trough coming in. 

Popping towers but definitely looks like its ingested some dry air over the past couple hours.