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Tyler Penland

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Posts posted by Tyler Penland

  1. We ready for whatever gents?
    Gotta go scrape the ice off my snow measuring board. Ha.

    Don't know if it means much of anything but none of the models have that band developing over TN/AL. Mping reports show its reaching the ground in at least some spots too.

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  2. Looks like a temporary break from the cold for a few days. But after that cutter it gets cold again.
    I'm good with my driveway actually melting.

    This may be the longest I've had widespread multiple inches of snow (now ice) on the ground. Going on 2 weeks and should eclipse that easily.

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  3. Yep. All you gotta do is loop the H5 maps and see how this is trending. Also, the surface is under done even on that NAM run. 
    Yeah unfortunately I just don't see it getting back this far. I certainly hope so but I'm very doubtful.

    We should do well with the NWFS anyways. And I doubt this winter is over just yet.

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  4. WPC updated 5 day graphic has introduced a snow chance for the Mountains. 
    1180739427_prbww_sn25_DAY5_conus(1).gif.764d26ed08c2aa0ce3d60dff8b319931.gif
    I would think that regardless of phase location we'll see at minimum a nice NWFS event on the backside. Even the Euro wraps some moisture around and it's the latest phase of the globals right now.

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  5. A track right over eastern NC would favor us big time. I was honestly shocked the run only dropped 7-10 inches here. A 970 low west of the OBX would be a mixed bag all the way to Burlington.
    That's some serious convective feedback issues. It's been struggling with that a bit. That track would work out pretty well for the mountains. Would toss way more moisture back this way than that run showed.

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  6. 1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

    It's never good when you click on the site and it's so quiet.  I thought we might start seeing a little NW trend by now,  

    Meh let the eastern folks have their storm. We'll get ours. I'm still not convinced there's not a surprise tomorrow night/Friday. 

     Looks like a couple shots next week with plenty of waves coming down the line. We're running out of time a bit with the AO/NAO likely to really start hurting us soon but it's just January. Still got all of Feb/Mar and into April to go.

  7. The devil is in the details with this one.  Pull up a sounding, any sounding around WNC over the next 3 days and tell me that's not borderline snow.  Skew-T says freezing drizzle best guess estimated precipitation with a column of air completely below freezing?  Does the model not think the precipitation will push up into the dendritic growth area?  Those 6000' peaks to Asheville's SW certain could help...  Just because the precip maps and accumulation maps aren't showing the colors, doesn't mean that the atmosphere isn't ripe.  Hell the 6z GFS has a snow sounding for tomorrow morning for most of you.  The main takeaway is that the models are really struggling.  They struggled like this in Dec 2017.  That northern periphery of moisture was never really correctly modeled and finally it was assumed to be a nowcast event.  I remember the GFS and Euro showing small stripes of snow over WNC and E TN a couple days out from the event and thinking they were warning shot.  I think we are seeing something similar here, maybe on a less intense scale but today should be the day we see some type of movement in the models.  I feel like we sit in a pretty good position.
    NAM showing those precip stripes at 12z.

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  8. 19 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

    How’s Foscoe? 
    It’s still coming down here atm.  

    Tapered off to flurries around 4 or so and they're still flittering around. We don't usually do much with NWF. Just crazy windy still, even in our little wind hole here beneath Seven Devils. 
    Not sure exactly how much we wound up with because the wind blew it around but I measured between 9-11" in the yard with 15+" drifts. 

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  9. I've lived in Cashiers and Glenville for the last 35 years and I can't remember a single time there were back-to-back weekends with big dog snowstorms. Has my memory just completely failed or is this truly anomalous?

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    I vaguely remember back to back ice storms in January 2000 in GA when I was little. No clue what happened in NC or if they were actually back to back weekends or just really close together.

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