nzucker

It's weakened somewhat but not NEARLY as much as the 7/27 map showed; that was almost certainly due to satellite error. That image had <75% concentration over a very large area. Seeing the new map, I doubt it melts completely in the East Siberian arm.

I may have been right...looks dramatically different today, more similar to before. These satellite maps are prone to short-term error due to clouds and other variables. Ice is much higher concentration now:

Greenland still seeing near record high surface mass balance for July, however. Very benign melt season there, so far.

Are we sure that isn't satellite error? It seems like an awfully big change from just a week or so ago, not sure if that's possible.

Looks above most recent years on Bremen extent:

Can you post the area numbers again, Will? Are we still close to 2009/2013/2014?

The country has awoken? You mean coddling a Russian dictator who has supported Assad gassing thousands, has annexed Crimea illegally, permits no dissent? Trump says "no collusion." Then how come there were secret meetings in Trump Tower? How come Roger Stone was talking to Guccifer 2.0 (who was known as early as July 2016 as a Russian operative)? Why was Trump telling Putin to hack Hillary's emails the same day the Russians invaded DNC servers? "Russia if you're listening, we want those 30,000 emails" Hmm...I wonder what's happening. If you still support Trump, you're embracing a traitor.

The main standard for bail is whether the accused will show up to court. The Bail Reform Act of 1966 states that the preference is for release on recognizance; the prosecution bears the burden of proof as to why a person should NOT be released since the individual is innocent in the eyes of the law. Selling street-level quantities of cocaine and running away from the police is hardly a crime that merits pre-trial detention. There was ZERO violence alleged in the criminal complaint. And you can't always easily distinguish between drug dealers and drug users. Many drug users sell from time to time in order to support their habit. That's the problem with the criminalization of drugs: it breeds a horrible black market economy in which addiction is intertwined with sale. The simple solution would be to offer more maintenance programs for harder drugs and to completely legalize marijuana and psychedelics. You'd see the drug cartels evaporate within days.

He got in trouble for trying to sell a small amount of coke, then hid in the woods and made the police look around for an hour. Not exactly someone that should be locked up for the rest of their life. Tragic incidents happen, but pre-trial release without cash bail and rehabilitation should still be the rule. Just because something crazy happens once in a while doesn't negate the overall benefit of less incarceration, less cash bail, more alternatives to jail time etc. Remembering that "innocent until proven guilty" is the fundamental rule of our justice system. And that we shouldn't be trying to lock people up, quite the opposite.

He'd been charged once before with a minor drug deal. Come on man.

12z ECM builds a nice trough into SE Canada with sub 0C 850s over Hudson Bay towards the end of the run. Could be on track for a similar pattern as 2013 with the scorching first half of July, then cooler weather late July/August. Of course the strength of the WAR will determine how far east that cooler airmass makes it.

I just mentioned Kimball's to my boyfriend last night when we were having ice cream in the Village. Nothing can beat Kimball's.

Doesn't the weather forecast look increasingly hostile though with a strong ridge over the Siberian side? Even if it's not a dipole, won't that degree of warmth (like +9C 850) promote melting?

Any snow left on Mansfield? What is the stake reading?

It still looks like just a moderate melt pattern unless the PV over Baffin Island loses all influence. It's rare to get such a widespread high pressure extending from the Beaufort to Greenland, as we had in 2012. The usual response to ridging over Alaska is lower heights and associated PV in the Baffin region. The PV has been very stubborn in recent summers. With early indications that it is re-establishing in an environment of lower overall hemispheric heights, I remain skeptical of a 2012/2007 melt unless we see major changes.

It's hard to get a strong high pressure over Greenland with the near constant vortex near Hudson Bay. Some of the long range GFS runs have shown a ridge poking into Greenland from the east, however. Do you think the PV may finally drop further south and be forced out of the Baffin/Hudson Bay region?

Will, the maps I'm seeing are showing relatively low heights over the Arctic and overall much cooler temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere compared to recent extreme warmth...this has a weak dipole signature but still looks chilly over the North Pole and parts of the Canadian Archipelago/Greenland...the rest of the Arctic would probably be near average in this pattern:

Global SSTs have also decreased to around 0.19C anomaly after being as high as 0.3C anomaly earlier this year...so that is possibly driving some of the cooling, as well as the pattern over the Northern Hemisphere, which is favoring lower heights in the mid to upper latitudes.

To be fair, May looks to be running significantly colder than March or April globally. The decrease in NH temps is especially apparent. We'll see how far the dip in the NH goes with the progged 500mb pattern. So he is correct that the globe has experienced some modest cooling recently.

It's amazing that our society values an arbitrary definition of a "well-manicured lawn" over the safety of our planet and our children. Why should we be allowed to spray carcinogens on a lawn that eventually end up in everyone's drinking water? The values of a hypercapitalist society, encoded in terms such as "property value" and "curb appeal" are all about appearance over substance. Those who do not march in conformity with the hypercapitalist American Dream by failing to mow their lawn are shunned from the community as lowering property values (just like blacks moving into the neighborhood, right?) Besides, even if you want a "well-manicured" lawn, there are other options. Fish meal and kelp are highly effective organic fertilizers. A backyard compost pile can also help feed a lawn or garden (though we have municipal composting in NYC). There are plenty of compromise options for maintaining a neat, postage stamp lawn that while not ideal due to being monocultures, are better than Roundup or Lesco.

How does melt ponding look at this point in May?

Very negative. Feb 2010 was one of the most -NAOs on record.

I'm glad we reached a compromise position. Sometimes stating views in a clear fashion helps people understand and ultimately agree. I think the beauty of the Weather Forums is that it is NOT monetized. That allows pure meteorology to reign. Once you start courting money, things change. What if Exxon Mobil wants to display ads on the climate forum? Do we allow that? The realities of the modern world mean that money is a factor. But there are other ways to get it besides running insidious ads filled with malware and inescapable loops. I'd support many other means of raising funds.

Having constant pop-ups on the screen dilutes the site's content, and some are linked to malware. Do YOU want malware on your computer? Furthermore, some ads like the Amazon prize wheel, which I've seen elsewhere, are IMPOSSIBLE to get rid of. I'd be fine with a donation drive, small fee, fundraiser, etc. But constant pop-ups disgust me.

Why do we need pop-ups at all? Pathetic cash grab.